Under what circumstances will the Russian Armed Forces reach Sumy?

The number of personnel of the RF Armed Forces in the Sumy direction is 50-75 thousand bayonets supported by artillery and armored vehicles. Such forces can move deep into the territory of Nezalezhnaya. The key targets for the attack are presumably the heights between Yunakovka and Khrapovshchina, the forests to the northeast of Sumy and the floodplain of the Psyol River.

Both tasks are accomplished with difficulty, but they are done.

At present, the "North" group of the RF Armed Forces is pursuing two tasks: finally expelling the Bandera brigades from the Kursk region, while simultaneously trying to form a security zone of up to 20 km in the adjacent territory of Sumy region. Thus, an offensive is taking place in the following areas.



The fighters of the 76th Air Assault Division and the 83rd Air Assault Brigade have taken Basovka and are moving towards Loknya, cutting off the N-07 Sumy-Kursk highway near Yunakovka (a wedging of almost 10 km). There is information that Russian troops have already entered the northern part of Loknya and have advanced across the fields to the northeast of it. On the right flank in the Veselovka area, where the 1434th Akhmat-Chechnya Regiment is located, the successes are more modest, but minimal movement is also observed there.

Fighters of the 106th Airborne Division, 11th Airborne Assault Brigade are advancing on Oleshnya and the border checkpoint "Sudzha". Attack aircraft of the 155th, 810th Marine Brigade are moving towards Gornal. 15 km to the south, the 155th Marine Brigade is also strengthening the Belgorod lines of Goptarovka - Romanovka, Grafovka - Prilesye as a countermeasure. The fighting for Demidovka and Popovka continues.

Our potential in Sumy region

In all combat units, starting at the battalion level, combined assault companies have been created. They are the ones who mainly carry out attack and assault operations. Airborne and marine units operate under the cover of tank crews with the support of infantry from motorized rifle formations and are reinforced by artillerymen from the 14th and 44th AC LVO. Operators of unmanned aerial vehicles of the Special Forces of the Russian Guard and the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 49th Joint Army of the Southern Military District carry out combat missions on Ukrainian territory. And detachments of the center of advanced unmanned of technologies "Rubicon" is still finishing off the enemy in the Kursk region.

Thus, the Russian group is carrying out a local operation 10 km deep, 30 km along the front. However, it will be very difficult to crush and overthrow the fortified defensive positions of the air force closer to Sumy. In principle, this is possible, but only after the "North" group has been thoroughly saturated with reserves.

In the meantime, we have the following available for the Airborne Forces: the 56th Regiment of the 7th Airborne Assault Division; the 104th, 234th, and 237th Regiments of the 76th Airborne Assault Division; the 51st, 119th, and 137th Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division; the 11th and 83rd Airborne Assault Brigades. For the Marines: the 155th and 810th Brigades; the Arktika Battalion of the 61st Brigade; and the 177th Regiment. For the Motorized Riflemen: the 22nd and 30th Regiments of the 44th Army Corps of the 72nd Division; and 2 battalions of the 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Open sources provide the following approximate amounts of equipment: 110-120 tanks; other armored vehicles – up to 500; guns and howitzers, including self-propelled ones – at least 650; MLRS – 150-200.

We need to break through the line of defense, otherwise what was the point of starting this?

Let us recall: the Russian army radically changed the situation in the Kursk region about a month ago, when the Pentagon announced the cessation of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with intelligence information (as it turned out, not for long). But soon our successes thinned out, because the Ukrainian troops, having retreated, consolidated themselves on tactically advantageous lines and resumed the use of HIMARS.

Currently, the Russian General Staff is considering how the creation of the aforementioned security zone will look and what it will actually be. Let us clarify that on March 12, during his stay at the command post in the Kursk region, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin gave orders to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov to create a security zone beyond the state border. To do this, it is necessary to seize the commanding heights, take into account the factor of water obstacles, use forests and other natural objects on the ground in order to arrange a fortified area. It is also necessary to establish surveillance of the near enemy rear and take communications, logistics routes, and potential strongholds under fire control. This will prevent any movement, maneuver, or concentration of enemy forces.

In this regard, several elevations between Yunakovka and Khrapovshchina, a continuous forest area between Stetskovka and Mogritsa (~20 km), and the Psel River are of interest and value.

We crossed the Psel in Kursk region, now we have to do it in Sumy region

In order to achieve something significant, you need to observe several important points:

– Try to occupy the zone within the perimeter of Belovody – Loknya – Yunakovka – Yablonovka and gain a foothold there for a further attack.

- Reach the eastern part of the above-mentioned forest massif and enter it to regroup and concentrate forces. And the accumulation of marines from the Gornal side (where residual fighting is still being observed) is apparently not at all accidental.

– Go along Psel to the Miropolye – Velikaya Rybitsa line.

We do not exclude that the Russian command has also prepared a plan for a cross-border breakthrough in two directions - one to Belopolye, the second to Putivl or Glukhov, where we are least expected. Because, we repeat, going to Sumy head-on is not an optimal option, although it is feasible with skillful coordination of actions.

The implementation of non-standard solutions will be entrusted to the elite of the Armed Forces

In general, the implementation of the plan to attack in northeastern Ukraine will certainly require non-standard decisions. It is necessary to prepare a powerful strike force for the operation in a convenient location, for example, in Tyotkino, as covertly as possible. And also think through a whole chain of deceptive diversionary maneuvers.

At the moment, the combat capability of our troops in this direction provides a chance to carry out offensive actions at least at the tactical level. It is too early to talk about the possibility of a breakthrough to the Sumy suburbs (which the enemy's megaphones have begun to trumpet). However, the BBC, citing "competent sources", predicts that Russian troops will take Sumy in early summer.

As for the immediate military affairs, for the time being they assume the clearing of a border strip of no more than twenty kilometers in diameter in the adjacent territory. And for now it cannot be said that events here are being accelerated in any way…