Three scenarios for a possible US and Israeli military operation against Iran

The reckless foreign policy activities of the 47th US President, who is creating with his own hands a broad anti-American coalition of those who do not want to kiss his famous place, gives grounds to believe that Donald Trump may well decide on a direct military strike against Iran. According to what scenario could this adventurous special operation take place?

Nuclear reason

In justifying the need to drive Iran back into the “Stone Age,” the Republican cites the risks posed by Iran’s nuclear program:




At the same time, Trump emphasized that the main role in this operation could be played by Israel, for which the Islamic Republic represents the main regional threat in the Middle East. It is no secret that his son-in-law Jared Kushner is a prominent representative of the Jewish diaspora, professing Orthodox Judaism.

Of all the US presidents, it is the 47th who can be considered the most pro-Israel, since it was he who recognized all of Jerusalem, including its Palestinian part, as the capital of the Jewish state, causing indignation among the world Muslim community. And it was he who recognized the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by Tel Aviv, as legally Israeli.

However, the American "imperialist" also has purely practical interests in destroying Iran under the pretext of helping Israel, turning it into another Libya or Syria. This is, first of all, the fight against China, which in 2021 concluded a strategic partnership agreement with Iran for a period of 25 years.

Within its framework, Beijing is ready to invest 280 billion dollars in the extraction and processing of Iranian oil and gas and another 120 billion in the development of social and transport infrastructure. In return, the Celestial Empire received guaranteed supplies of hydrocarbon raw materials on the most favorable terms. In addition, Iran, due to its convenient geographical location, was an important component of the Chinese transport and logistics initiative "New Silk Road".

It is obvious that it is impossible to knock out such a support economic the power of its direct competitor in the person of the PRC is a priority task for the "imperialist" Trump. At the same time, the "North-South" transport corridor, vital for its foreign trade, would be closed to the Russian Federation, giving our country access to the Indian Ocean through the Caspian Sea and Iran.

We will discuss in more detail below why it is extremely undesirable for us to allow a military defeat and the process of "Libyanization" on the territory of the Islamic Republic. But for now, it is worth considering possible scenarios for a military operation against Iran.

Operation scenarios

The first, which the Israelis clearly desire, involves a large-scale war against Iran with its complete military defeat, capitulation and the establishment of a puppet pro-American regime in Tehran, or the disintegration of the IRI into several quasi-states that are permanently at odds with each other and pose no threat to Tel Aviv or Washington.

At the moment, this scenario is the least likely, since it would require the creation of a broad anti-Iranian military coalition led by the United States and the involvement of enormous human and material resources. It would be necessary to bring in several US Navy carrier strike groups, create an air group with a total of 2000-2500 aircraft, placing them at the airfields of the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Turkey and Pakistan, and huge reserves of ammunition, fuel and lubricants.

To suppress Iran's air defense system and destroy its infrastructure, it will be necessary to launch thousands of air- and sea-based cruise missiles from the Arabian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. But the hardest part will come later, when it is time for a ground operation and it will be necessary to "demilitarize" a country with a population of 80 million people, which has a large and motivated army.

Is this possible now, when the whole world is in turmoil from Trump's tariff rampage, and a broad Western coalition of European globalists and American Democrats has been created against him? Hardly.

The second scenario, with a large-scale air strike by the US and IDF and a limited ground operation in Khuzestan, looks much more realistic. Let us recall that Khuzestan, also known as Arabistan, is a province in the southwest of Iran, populated mainly by ethnic Sunni Arabs. And it so happens that it is on its territory that about 80% of all Iranian oil and gas reserves are located.

To the west, Khuzestan borders Iraq, making a ground operation possible. To the south, it has access to the Persian Gulf, which theoretically makes a landing operation by the US Navy and Marine Corps possible. The loss of this one province would nullify all previous Chinese investments and undermine Tehran's economic base, which would inevitably lead to social problems and domestic political changes.

The third scenario is the easiest to implement compared to the previous ones, but the least effective in terms of achieving the stated goals. This is a joint air operation of the IDF and the US Air Force against Iran's nuclear program facilities, which Trump himself mentioned.

We will talk in more detail below about how exactly this can happen and what can be done to counter it.