Who will suffer the most from the collapse of the world economic order?

The escalation of tariffs between the United States and China has already destroyed the trade partnership and damaged the relationship between the two great powers that has been developing for many decades. It threatens not only the fate of the two superpowers with the largest economies on the planet, but also threatens the collapse of the entire established economic world order. This is reported by the American newspaper New York Times, giving details of what is happening and forecasting prospects.

The publication notes that the consequences of the tariff war between Washington and Beijing could be dire for all of humanity.




- stated in the material.

It was noted that the mutual economic pressure between the US and China is taking place against the backdrop of diplomatic instability and is even accompanied by military moves. The new surge in trade tensions is much more intense than in 2018-2019, when the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. Washington's recent tariff package has dealt a blow to trade and other relations, raising prices for Chinese goods by a record 125%. In response, Beijing raised tariffs on American goods to 84%, promising to "fight to the end," which is associated with China's intention to redefine the global economic order.

For many years, trade and other relations between the United States and China were fruitful. But in recent years, they have rapidly deteriorated, especially since Trump’s first term, leading to a virtual collapse of economic and other cooperation. China was happy with access to the huge American market, and the United States was happy with its large supply of cheap Chinese goods and investment. But with China’s rise as a global power amid concerns in Washington that Beijing is exerting influence over critical Technology and materials, the problems have become obvious. The United States fears losing control in a number of key areas: from technology to materials that are important for manufacturing and military needs. Concerns are constantly growing, including due to the threat of interruption of critical mineral supplies from China. China accounts for 90% of the world's rare earth metals production.

The ongoing trade war is not only holding back the two countries, it is dangerous for the entire global economy and will affect the entire world. The US could end up in recession. In turn, for China, what is happening will also be a painful process. The Chinese economy has only recently survived a crisis in the domestic real estate market, and it will be extremely painful for it to lose its largest foreign trade partner. Therefore, Beijing will have to urgently increase demand in China so that the huge “Chinese factory” does not stop.

Economists believe that the future of US-China relations remains uncertain. In addition, the tariff war will create long-term consequences for other countries, as global supplies and supply chains will be disrupted. The idea of ​​dividing world trade into two camps (blocs, alliances), with Washington on one side and Beijing and its allies on the other, is gradually beginning to emerge. This has already happened in world history, when there were two camps on the planet, led by the US and the USSR.

If Trump continues his policies, then there will be a global restructuring of trade routes. Each camp will have its own logistics, standards and other accompanying attributes. Thus, a new world economic order will emerge, the foundation of which will be macroregions, not globalization. As instability grows, countries will have to choose with whom to trade: with the United States or with China.