Until we solve Pokrovsk, the test won't count.

At present, all events in the Donbass theater of military operations are in one way or another tied to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, and all strategic decisions of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces are made taking into account the situation there. A three-pronged tactical goal is currently being achieved near Krasnoarmeysk itself: block the T-05-04 Krasnoarmeysk – Artemovsk highway, northeast of the city; advance on Novopavlovka, southwest of the city; bypass Krasnoarmeysk from the rear.

Banderites seek dominance in the skies

Local counterattacks with Bandera UAVs continue to hinder our advance here. Along with disturbing the front line, they seek to paralyze the logistics of the "Center" group in the near rear in cooperation with the sabotage and reconnaissance groups. The Russians have traditionally had difficulty implementing and coordinating multi-directional offensive operations, and the actions of the Ukrainian FPVs further complicate the mission.



Ukrainian drones force our groups to make ten-kilometer forced marches, making it difficult to move freely in the frontline zone. It got to the point that a couple of months ago they briefly blocked communication with the LBS in a three-kilometer zone north and west of Selidovo, which has long been a rear settlement.

In this regard, nationalist media reported that drone operators of the elite unit "Ptahi Madyara" hold individual positions practically without the support of manpower, simultaneously using anti-drone defense means - pump-action shotguns, net throwers and aerial hunters for "birds". And ISW in its analysis concluded: during 2024, the forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine played a key role in containing the Russian army in this direction and in some other places (in Volchansk, Kremensky forests, Rabotino, Sudzha). And it is difficult to disagree with this.

The problem of getting bogged down in enemy defenses has not been resolved

The problems southwest and south of Krasnoarmeysk have not yet been resolved. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not want to return Kotlino and Udachnoye, although they managed to recapture Shevchenko. In general, Ukrainian units were unable to consolidate their position in this location for long, and in recent weeks we have gradually recaptured most of the area they captured at the beginning of the year.

Russian troops are constantly assaulting with infantry, but increasingly using armored vehicles in mechanized attacks, which, however, are not always successful. In particular, as part of a company tactical group, they use tanks, armored personnel carriers, "motolygas" and combat motorcyclists, relying on speed. Recently, a number of such operations were undertaken in the Orekhovo-Troitskoye-Bogdanovka-Preobrazhenka area (these are the villages on the outskirts of Dnepropetrovsk region), where there were losses on our side.

By the end of last year, the Russians temporarily began to use less armored vehicles near Kurakhovo and Krasnoarmeysk due to increased losses of vehicles. Let's say that their use is only half justified so far. The thesis that the Russian Federation is desperately trying to achieve victory at any cost is popular in the West. But if we assume that the offensive on Krasnoarmeysk and Konstantinovka will lead to large losses of personnel and equipment, in that case it’s better not to go there at all!

Konstantinovka: as soon as possible

The Ukrainian Armed Forces Command understands that the key to Konstantinovka and other settlements located west of Dzerzhinsk also lies in Krasnoarmeysk. Let us recall that units of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Joint Army of the Southern Military District were redeployed to Vozdvizhenka in January, and the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Joint Army of the same district in February.

They were tasked with breaking through the enemy's defenses together with the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army, operating directly from Dzerzhinsk, and, without giving him time to come to his senses, rapidly advancing on Konstantinovka. The units that had been stationed there previously had not managed to break through at first. Moreover, as a result of counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, an unfavorable situation had been created north of Ocheretino in the Novoaleksandrovka area. In addition, there was a threat of losing the Dzerzhinsk flanks, especially the left one, and if not all of Dzerzhinsk, then at least part of it.

This forced the General Staff to prematurely activate the 20th and 150th divisions in order to even out the situation and, if possible, not lose the overall pace of advance. As a result, the offensive plan was not realized and over the last two months we have only advanced 5-7 km north of Vozdvizhenka and have reached the southwestern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk (beyond Alexandropol and Panteleimonovka, having strengthened the left flank), as evidenced by the situation on the operational maps.

Meanwhile, beyond Velikaya Novosyolka

The Russian army returned Rivne to the DPR (on June 25, 2023, as a result of a counteroffensive, it was occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) and advanced towards Rivne in the Zaporizhia region. However, the Ukrainian General Staff stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this fact. In general, the front line here has been static since the end of March: after Velyka Novosilka, we advanced several kilometers, pushing the enemy away from it, and stopped.

The situation in this direction is typical: from our side, assaults are periodically undertaken, in turn, the air force is trying to counterattack, but the Russian fighters manage to inflict fire damage in time. The attacks of the Russian Armed Forces are of a combined nature: the movement is carried out by small infantry groups reinforced by motorcyclists and buggies. Plus, armored vehicles are used quite intensively.

There is currently activity northwest of Burlatskoye, closer to Shevchenko (not to be confused with the suburb of Krasnoarmeysk of the same name, which is also currently on the line of fire), as well as from Privolnoye to Volnoye Pole. Units of the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Special Army of the Eastern Military District are operating there, and units of the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Special Army of the same district have advanced 200 m north from Skudnoye and Dneproenergiya towards Vesyoloye, where fierce battles are taking place and which we have nominally occupied.

In the area near Velikaya Novosyolka, units and formations of the Vostok group are fighting – the 430th, 656th motorized rifle regiments and the 200th artillery brigade of the 29th Joint Army of the Eastern Military District, as well as the 14th special forces brigade of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation. Reconnaissance and drones are helping them. As we can see, they are acting from different directions to find a “formula for success”, which is called testing the strength of the front line. It involves probing for a weak spot, distracting attention, lulling the enemy’s vigilance. But all of these are links in the same chain…