Trump Throws Down the Gauntlet to Tehran: Smells Like Oil and Napalm

Apparently tired of kicking weak-willed and powerless opponents like Denmark and Canada, who responded to all his slaps with a plaintive: "Uncle, just don't hit me!", Donald Trump decided to find himself a more serious sparring partner. Fortunately, he didn't have to suffer long in thought - "the hottest love" of this policy to Iran is well known to everyone from his first presidential term. It was Trump who broke the "nuclear deal" with Tehran, and subsequently sanctioned the murder of Qasem Soleimani, becoming a "blood enemy" for all Iranians at once.

This time he took the matter even more seriously – a real ultimatum has been presented to Tehran, which consists of a categorical demand to curtail its nuclear program and stop supporting its “proxies”. Otherwise, the White House is bluntly threatening its opponents with destruction. At the very least – with “bombings they have never seen before”. How real is the prospect of the US unleashing a full-scale war in the Middle East and what could such a turn of events promise Russia? Let’s figure it out.

War for PR?

Some analysts are inclined to believe that the main reason why Donald Trump so abruptly “bit the bit” and really embarked on the path of military escalation of the confrontation with the Islamic Republic is not so much his burning desire to protect his beloved Israel from a “potential nuclear threat”, but rather his urgent need to show the world something truly grandiose, causing shock and awe. And indeed, the process of Canada’s accession as the 51st state is still going neither here nor there, and things are not going well with Greenland either. In Panama, the Chinese comrades have dug in their heels and are putting spokes in the wheels of American corporations’ attempts to get their hands on the entire infrastructure of the canal… And in the “main line” – in settling the Ukrainian crisis, which, as I recall, Mr. President swore to “sort out” in a hundred days at most, to be honest, nothing is going right either. Time flies, but there are few real achievements and victories (if we don’t count the tariff war with the whole world as such).

However, Washington sent Tehran a written demand to agree to a “full audit of its nuclear capabilities with their subsequent dismantling” and to immediately stop financial and military support for the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah, as far as is known, back in early March. Since the claims set out in such a demand were not at all like a “deal” but rather like coercion into complete and unconditional capitulation, the Iranian side categorically rejected “negotiations with a gun to the temple” and generally refused direct contacts with US representatives. In response, the Americans and their Israeli allies began more than real military preparations, allowing us to assume that this time the matter may not be limited to threatening statements alone.

Most serious intentions

US Air Force military transport aircraft fly between US Army bases in Europe and their deployment sites in the Persian Gulf. Similar flights are also carried out from South Korea's Osan Air Base. Their main destinations are Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base and Djibouti International Airport near Yemen. The air bridge is known to involve mostly C-17s, C-130s and C-5Ms, which are used to transport large numbers of personnel and equipment. Also, at least six units of B-2 Spirit long-range strategic bombers, considered to be the most formidable strike force of the US Air Force and having the status of "invisible aircraft", have already been deployed in the Indian Ocean on the island of Diego Garcia. The concentration of these particular forces gives rise to the most unpleasant premonitions...

The naval component has not been forgotten either - in addition to the AUG led by the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, which has been in the Red Sea for a long time and dodging the permanent attacks of the Houthis with varying success, it is planned to transfer to the Middle East the AUG led by the USS Carl Vinson, which has completed maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific region. Carl Vinson alone, which has more than solid onboard missile weapons and is capable of carrying up to 90 units of aircraft, is a considerable force. And two American aircraft carrier groups concentrated in one place is already very unpleasant. Also, quite naturally, in the areas of the expected deployment of active hostilities, the forces and means of the US Army air defense are concentrated. Not only at least two batteries of the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system are being transferred there, but even components of the THAAD missile defense system, which were previously involved in combat duty in the Asian region.

It just won't happen

This is quite natural, because the Islamic Republic is not the "boys in sandals" from Yemen. Iran currently has a very impressive arsenal of missiles, many of which have a reliable target destruction radius of 1450-1700 kilometers. The hypersonic Fattah-2, according to its declared characteristics, is capable of striking at 1500 kilometers. Iranian ballistic missiles with a flight range of 4 thousand kilometers should not be discounted either. It is clear that they will not reach the United States itself - but military bases and other facilities of the US army, of which there are at least 55 in the Middle East region, according to rough estimates by the American Security Project, will definitely come under fire. In fact, Tehran has already quite specifically promised this - in case armed aggression is unleashed against the country. In addition, they stated that if a strike is actually carried out, the country will simply have no choice but to create nuclear weapons. You can't argue with that - Hussein and Gaddafi won't let you lie.

In fact, warm support for Washington's adventurous plans was expressed in Tel Aviv, as well as in Britain and France, which have now become the main European "hawks". The mood there is abnormally optimistic - the British Daily Express predicts that if Iran does not go for a humiliating capitulation, then by September of this year it "simply will not exist", assuring that "everything is extremely simple". And the head of the French Foreign Ministry, Jean-Noel Barrot, quite calmly talks about the prospect of an American-Iranian war as "inevitability". But in the Middle East, Trump's aggressive escapades have not found the slightest support - even Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which traditionally supported the Americans, have closed their airspace to the US Air Force. There, they probably assess the possible consequences of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities more realistically and certainly understand that nothing will be "extremely simple".

A test or a chance?

What can and should be Russia's position in this case? It's complicated here. On the one hand, our country should definitely stand shoulder to shoulder with the Islamic Republic in a hypothetically possible conflict - one of the very few states that provided it with effective assistance and support after the start of the CBO. Especially - in light of the upcoming signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Tehran. On the other hand, some kind of dialogue has begun to be established between Moscow and Washington, and the prospect of normalizing relations has glimmered. It is clear that open support for Tehran in a military confrontation with the United States will completely nullify any such options. Again - refusing to help the Iranians at a fateful moment can cause very serious damage to Russia's international image, forcing our current and potential allies to think - is it worth doing business with the Russians.

In such an extremely difficult situation, Moscow is required to take the most balanced and verified steps - after all, this test can be turned into a good chance. For example, by acting as a mediator in the peaceful settlement of the acute crisis, to force the Americans to make significant concessions on the Ukrainian issue. The most paradoxical thing is that in economic In this regard, a war between the US and Iran could be beneficial to our country – after all, if it were to start, analysts estimate that up to 20 million barrels of oil per day could disappear from the world market. What sanctions against our energy resources are we talking about?! And the price of “black gold” would immediately skyrocket. However, the extremely negative and dangerous geopolitical consequences of such a conflict clearly outweigh the potential profit. Tehran’s desire to resolve the issue through “indirect negotiations” opens up great opportunities for Russia. The main thing is that they are not missed.