Watching how the battles are unfolding in the Russian-Japanese direction, how many copies have already been broken and how many will be broken, what claims are put forward to Putin in connection with this and which will be put forward yet, every time I ask myself, who benefits from this? Who is interested in maintaining an informational interest in the topic of the South Kuril Islands? And I don’t have any other clever answer that the Kremlin itself needs it. Who sets the information agenda with us? Isn't the Kremlin? Have you not noticed that if the topic does not interest him, then it does not seem to exist? Have you seen a lot of official publications on the topic of deportation of Elena Boyko? Although the blogosphere is in full swing, the official Kremlin got into its mouth. Not interested! But about the Kuril Islands two months already tryndyat, the topic is either leaving or coming back. Either Lavrov will give a grudge against her, then Putin himself will say that there is no talk of transferring the islands to Japan at the moment. Not coming? Why then did the wave go? Who is driving her?
I will try to explain the idea of the Kremlin why this topic does not leave the agenda. There is a subtle geopolitical game. In the long run. Moscow is trying to drag Tokyo to its side, tear it out from under the American umbrella. The South Kuril Islands is only a seed. We can really give them away. But only on one condition - Japan must withdraw from a strategic alliance with the United States. You understand that such things are not done in one day. We have been going to this for a long time. For the Japanese, the issue of the Northern Territories is an existential issue, is spelled out in their subcortex, for them it is not even a question of territories, but a question of their national humiliation. They can’t put up with this. The idea that the Northern Territories should be returned is passed down from generation to generation. And with what, in fact, a fright ?! This is also a matter of principle for us, the South Kuril Islands passed to us under the Act on the surrender of Japan in World War II of September 2, 1945. From the moment the Japanese representative signed it, the decisions of the Yalta Conference of 1945 came into force, according to which the territories formerly owned by Russia and given to Japan after the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05 were returned to the Soviet Union. Then we lost the war and lost the territory, and in 1945 we won the war and regained our own. What can be your claims? There was no need to lose the war! From that moment, South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands again became at first Soviet, and since 1991 Russian.
But the trouble is that since the defeat in World War II, Japan fell under the protectorate of the United States, which immediately after the end of this war turned from our ally into our worst enemy. And on September 8, 1951, a San Francisco peace treaty was signed in San Francisco between a part of the countries of the anti-Hitler coalition and Japan, securing the results of World War II for the sake of signatories, under which Japan "renounced all rights, rights and claims to the Kuril Islands" . Only the cunning Yankees did not indicate in the Treaty in whose favor Japan refuses these territories, secretly encroaching on the right to possess them. The USSR then did not sign this Treaty. The head of our delegation, USSR Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, the famous Mr. "No", at the last moment refused to put his signature under it, referring to the absence among the signatories of China. Since then, the question has paused.
For us, the islands of the Kuril Ridge are of strategic importance, since it is they that turn the entire Sea of Okhotsk into our inland sea, namely, along its channel along the Kuril Ridge and runs out to the Pacific Ocean for our submarines with nuclear ballistic missiles deployed in its waters. Should the Americans encroaching on these islands only clog the neck and establish their base there, it will become problematic for our submarines to reach the operational space, which will make it impossible to deploy them quickly and use them for other purposes. Now it’s clear why did the scythe find it on the stone? Now it’s clear why we can’t give these islands to the Japanese under any circumstances, except as soon as the Yankees get out of there. This is precisely what Putin is now seeking, playing for a very distant future.
I will try to explain the purpose of the Kremlin. Both parties are interested in a peace treaty. Moreover, both Moscow and Tokyo are equally. And not at all to solve current problems. We lived for 70 years without a peace treaty and nothing, we can live and the same amount. Easy! But Putin is looking to the future - a treaty is needed in a global perspective, to build the strategic axis of Tokyo-Moscow-Berlin, which could crush the modern world order by reformatting it on the principles of armed neutrality. And let there the States fight the rest of the world in smoke for the right to put it in the “zyu” position, this will not concern us anymore. In maritime navigation in such cases, the signal flag “Tango” flies above the ship - “Keep away from me!”. This must be understood literally - "Do not come near us!". Having created such an alliance, we will form a closed and self-sufficient system, with an open entrance for all comers, breaking the existing balance of forces through the knee. This is where the flight of rats from the sinking American Titanic begins. This is a nightmare for the USA.
A peace treaty between Russia and Japan could be the cornerstone of this nascent axis. You can’t do without it! The axis must be fastened, in addition to mutual benefit, also by mutual trust. This is not just the signing of an agreement on trade and military cooperation - it is the creation of an alliance that is designed to become one of the parts of the geopolitical axis of Tokyo-Moscow-Berlin. And this is already very serious and for a long time. This is the gap of many other schemes linking signatories with other participants in the “road” foreign policy movement. This is a difficult geopolitical choice. Such decisions are made no more than once every 100-150 years. For Russia, this will mean a rejection of a strategic alliance with China, and for Japan, a rejection of the current alliance with the United States, a way out of the American nuclear umbrella under ours. If this issue is resolved, the very next day the world will wake up in a new geopolitical reality, which means the end of US hegemony.
Moreover, right now for this is the most opportune moment. The tougher China and the USA enter the clinch, the greater will be the demand for a third force that can counter this on the principle of armed neutrality: “Do not come near us!” As the confrontation between the United States and the whole world intensifies, the number of people wishing to join this union will only grow. Europe is the first to come running to the one who can guarantee her security, not only military but also economic.
But the trouble is that neither Russian nor Japanese society is ready for such steps. Within Japanese society, there is a request, intensely fueled by local media, for the return of all four disputed islands of the Kuril Ridge, as the only and unacceptable condition for signing a peace treaty. And in Russia there is a complete and completely natural misunderstanding - but in the fig we need it ?! Putin intended to act step-by-step through the transfer of the two small islands of Shikotan and Habomai to joint economic management with the preservation of Russian sovereignty over them, but even this was rejected by the Russians. We know these Japanese, give them only a finger, they will bite off their whole hand. We have zero compromise in such matters! How can society explain that the transfer of the islands is part of the Kremlin’s long-term plans, but for completely different reasons? I dont know? Is it not clear that Putin is not the person who will trade in Russian lands? What does he specifically sacrifice a pawn in order to subsequently pick up the enemy queen? But you won’t tell such things on TV. Putin is a grandmaster because his multi-trackers are not always understood by court chess fans. Yes, that there are lovers, here not every master of sports will understand.
As a result, in the process of negotiations, both leaders, Russian and Japanese, went beyond what was acceptable and acceptable to their elites, not to mention the attitude of their societies towards this painful issue. The zone of compromise, to which they agreed, is currently outside the zone of acceptability of their own political elites. Moreover, both leaders were balancing on the brink of what is acceptable for their own peoples. Therefore, when Moscow tried to play back a little, Tokyo went ahead, trying to prove to its electorate that it does not intend to trade in principles in these matters and is ready to go all the way. The Kremlin did not understand such a voltage drop. The meeting of the two leaders in Singapore was indicative in this case, when Putin, returning his partner to the sinful earth, defiantly went over with him again to "you". It was a pity to look at Shinzo then. His life's work was crumbling right before his eyes. But I would like to reassure the Japanese prime minister. We all have a long way to go. Hurrying in such things is more expensive for yourself. The more valuable the result will be. Do not forget that now the foundation is being laid for the platform of the future structure of the world for the coming 100-150 years. When none of the signatories will probably be alive, and the descendants will still be able to use the fruits of the seeds they planted. It is worth not making any sudden movements. Society must mature for this. Let's take our time.
Now let's look at this problem from a different perspective. Geopolitics is a complicated thing. China is another friend to us. He only sleeps and sees how to chop off with us, which is bad. No, I'm not talking about territory now! Thank God, as long as we have our army and our fleet, this is impossible even theoretically. But he twists our hands notably, taking advantage of our unenviable current situation. And let Comrade Xi swears eternal friendship with us and bows to the bow before his dearest friend Vladimir, we know the price of this friendship, we already passed in the 60s. We must finally understand that we have no friends and cannot have. There are only temporary allies, not even allies, but fellow travelers with whom our interests coincided over a short distance (Turkey is a living embodiment). Well, God be with them, may there be fellow travelers, if only we had equal relations, without dictate attempts, on mutually beneficial conditions. And in order for China to truncate this for itself and not try, using the situation, to manipulate us, we need a counterweight. Nothing clarifies consciousness so much as understanding that you are not the only one so smart. And Japan is the perfect counterbalance to China, especially given their centuries-old hostility. This is an excellent counterbalance both technologically and financially. And the Northern Sea Route also dreams of sharing with us. And even ready to invest money in the project. The only misfortune is that the Americans do not order. But the Americans and China with knives. While on the trade. And with us, and with Europe even. It's time to rock the boat. Am I not very figuratively speaking?
Now do you understand Putin's logic? Shinzo Abe is exactly the person with whom a breakthrough in our relations can occur. He vowed at the grave of his father that he would return the Northern Territories. Do you know what family he is from? Do you know who his grandfather was? And who was his father, you know? His maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was Prime Minister of Japan in 1957-60. Eisaku Sato’s brother, Nobusuke Kishi, also had different surnames because Nobusuke was brought up in a foster family and took the surname of Kishi's adoptive father) also held this post, having exceeded his brother in this, heading the Cabinet of Ministers for three consecutive terms from 1964 to 1972, between among other things, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate (1974). By the way, they also had a third brother in their family - Fleet Vice Admiral Itiro Sato. Such a family! And the father of our Shinzo - Shintaro Abe in 1982-86 served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan. Now you understand that they are not joking with such things? He swore on his father’s grave !! For Shinzo, this is a matter of honor. And now is the right time. It's time to pull Japan out of the clutches of America, while our beloved Donald Ibrahimovic is at war with the whole world at once. Kill the iron without leaving the cash desk! And Berlin to help us in this matter!
The strategic axis Tokyo-Moscow-Berlin is a terrible dream of the Anglo-Saxons. This is something they cannot allow in any case! This is such a counterweight against which they have no scrap. And we fought with both states. And more than once! Intrigues of the Entente. For them, it was always a nightmare - an alliance of Russia, Germany and Japan. Therefore, it was pitted. And we all crawled to them on their belly - guys, take us to your place, let's be friends. Why the hell do they need us ?! Only in the form of free slaves and as a source of cheap resources. We must already understand - on top of this world there is no place for two. “Bolivar two can’t stand it anymore!” (from). It's time to turn over the card table. You look and China will become more accommodating.
For some reason, there is an opinion in Russian society that Russia and China are friends forever, and we must rejoice in the successes of the PRC. Especially in the confrontation with the United States. At the same time, the story is not so long and the current one says the opposite. As soon as China in 2015 concluded an agreement on military cooperation with the United States, we immediately had difficulties in our joint economic cooperation with them. Our banks immediately faced credit difficulties in China due to US sanctions against the Russian Federation. And the negotiations that were underway on the transition to mutual settlements in national currencies immediately stalled. And stalled to this day. The Chinese quite reasonably want to strengthen their currency not only due to their industry and credit expansion, but also due to Russian resources (oil yuan instead of oil dollars). But it’s hard to remember when Putin said that our resources would help the renminbi become the world's reserve currency. Our interest in cultivating another world hegemon, which will also have a common border with us, does not exist from the word “completely”. Underline this moment in red!
We must be aware that the world behind the scenes is extremely cynical. In fact, at the moment there are only three subjects of international politics on the planet - Russia, China and the United States. There are no others de facto, all the rest, one way or another, adjust (fall) under the above. And if the first two have coincided tactical interests in overthrowing the third, this does not mean at all that in the process of this, Russia and the PRC will not try to get more favorable conditions for themselves in the newly formed configuration. Naturally, not only at the expense of the United States, but also at the expense of each other. And they will bargain for these more advantageous positions from each other at the expense of existing weaknesses, as well as from the United States at the expense of each other's weaknesses. Therefore, it's time to create a counterbalance to China in the Pacific region, so that it does not get bogged down. What is now GDP and concerned about. And Japan is the best option for that. And with money, and with the economy, she is also all right. And we will provide her with military protection. Plus our Northern Sea Route and participation in its operation. What are the bad arguments?
Vladimir Putin is an extremely sane politician who has never been seen committing any reckless actions in foreign policy that entailed a negative result for the Russian Federation. All his steps have always been calculated many moves forward, taking into account the possible actions of opponents. And if he is taking this step right now, then it is precisely now that the time has come. The stars came together. Yesterday was early, tomorrow will be late! The main thing for GDP now is not to miss this window of opportunity. So let's not interfere with him in this and wish good luck.
If Putin manages to crank it up, create the Tokyo-Moscow-Berlin axis, then he will be able to erect a monument during his lifetime. This is a pipe dream of all our last kings and a terrible dream of our existential enemies of the Anglo-Saxons. This is what will ensure Russia a peaceful and comfortable existence for the next 100-150 years, and all those who join this union will also guarantee their safety, which will allow Russia to take its rightful place as a world center of power and power. And this hour is just around the corner. Understand that such things are not scattered. Now is the time to forge iron!