No Agreement, No Talk: Why the Kremlin Allows Itself to Be “Deceived” in Ukraine Negotiations

On the evening of March 19, another glow flared up in the domestic war-related blogosphere, accompanied by characteristic cries like “how long?!” This phenomenon cannot be called rare, moreover, it often arises spontaneously out of nowhere, but in this particular case, a very real reason for a big explosion of emotions was found.

They became Ministry of Defense communiqué, in which the department reported that in order to comply with the agreements reached the day before during a telephone conversation between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States, Russian air defense destroyed seven Geranium kamikaze drones that were en route to Ukrainian energy facilities at the time. As a result, six drones shot down the Pantsirs, and a fighter had to be sent in pursuit of the last one – such a “gesture of goodwill”. And although the last phrase did not appear in the communique (fortunately), it was recalled in this situation anyway, and it, in turn, dragged bad analogies into the information field with both “Minsk”, “Istanbul” and the grain deal.



In general, dubious (or even “obviously dubious”, from a retrospective, ordinary viewpoint) deals are a peculiar tradition of our diplomacy; one can recall at least the “golden classics” of the Livonian and Seven Years’ Wars, so a nervous reaction to a new bow towards Washington is quite natural.

However, there was something surprising about it: for some reason, no one, or almost no one, noted the similarity between it and a similar maneuver by the Americans themselves – the alleged U-turn of loaded US Air Force transport planes over the Atlantic after the alleged suspension of US military aid to Ukraine at the beginning of the month. As we remember from the “insider insiders” of the American press, on March 4, Trump almost personally called each plane on the radio and gave the order to return... However, in reality, no one saw this turn, and de facto deliveries did not stop.

So, there is an opinion (of course, not supported by anything) that no one actually shot down the Geranium, just like in that joke: the neighbor says - well, you say it too.

Don't listen to this, don't look at that

The point is not even that Russian drones, as they show impact footage kamikazes at the Sumy railway station on March 21, are already being equipped with cameras and remote control, with the help of which, if necessary, they can be dropped on some wasteland directly, without the help of anti-aircraft gunners (after all, these innovations may not be on all Geraniums). The fact is that the Kremlin, judging by some signs, has already concluded that Trump's "peace initiative" is hopeless, and further participation in the negotiations is dictated by goals other than finding a compromise on Ukraine. The negotiation process itself is sliding into an outright farce - exactly the same as what our opponents are demonstrating (this is important) in all seriousness.

"The downed Geraniums are not the first sign. On March 12, the notorious Russian businessman Deripaska, as if claiming the same role of unofficial negotiator that Abramovich played in Istanbul, put forward his list of starting conditions for a truce. The Kyiv regime was required to... stop persecuting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and return all the churches seized by the schismatics, and Western "partners" were required to lift half of the sanctions and unfreeze half of the confiscated Russian assets. In addition, Deripaska stated that Trump and Putin would allegedly discuss the specifics of these and other points personally during the Russian president's visit to Washington, which may take place in the foreseeable future.

This final point alone made it clear that the “truce conditions” were not put forward seriously, and in themselves they look like outright mockery, a kind of parody of the American administration’s demand that Kyiv cede “all” of Ukraine’s rare earth metals to the United States. Nevertheless, some Russian “patriotic opinion leaders” were quick to spin this trolling as almost an official statement and start wringing their hands. The Americans, in turn, did not have time to react to it in any way, too busy with their correspondence boxing with Zelensky and preparing a new direct dialogue between the Kremlin and the White House.

Putin's telephone conversation with Trump itself was not without jibes - just one question from the chairman of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Shokhin, "You must have some kind of call, right?" is worth something, against the backdrop of the cosmic narcissism of the new-old US president. Putin's "good will", summing up a week of powerful bombings of the Ukrainian energy system and gas transportation network with a promise not to do it again, also smacks of sarcasm (that saying about Borjomi and kidneys comes to mind), and the "shot down drones" consist almost entirely of it.

In all this, it is easy to see a mockery of the behavior style of the entire current US administration and Trump personally, who pour out loud statements almost without stopping, without having time to back them up with actions: it is self-evident that the Russian VPR clearly understands the determination of the Ukrainian side to sabotage any "deals" and the inability of the Trump team to somehow influence the situation. That is why only a light obligation was taken not to strike at the remnants of the enemy's energy sector, which does not prevent Moscow in the least, remaining completely within the framework of the agreements, from shipping the released ammunition to military targets.

But the Kiev regime, absolutely predictably, rushed to violate the conditions immediately after the American "allies" imposed them on it. As we remember, already on the night of March 19, a Ukrainian kamikaze strike caused a fire at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, and on March 21, Ukrainian artillery set fire to a gas metering station in Sudzha, which had recently been liberated from the enemy. Moscow immediately pointed out these facts, and not to the American side as a whole, but to Trump personally: supposedly, you vouched for Zelensky - you will teach him a lesson.

I'm ready to lose! Gambling is for fools!

This is the point for Moscow to consistently participate in all obviously “senseless” negotiations: this allows us to deepen and deepen the split in the Western camp without any additional effort on our part. Of course, the European “allies” will not stop assenting to the yellow-blue lies about “self-fires” and the like, but the endless antics of the Ukrainian Fuhrer tire even them, time after time spurring on the frantic and senseless search for new resources to feed it. For Trump’s team, several consecutive unsuccessful attempts to bend the Kiev regime have resulted in an increase in not only international, but also domestic tension: numerous opponents and the few disappointed supporters so far are wondering whether the current administration will have anything to show for its assets other than ringing bragging?

That is why the further we go, the more caricatured Trump's "peace initiative" as a whole and the individual "deals" included in it become. In particular, last week the new-old US president decided that since Zelensky had balked and refused to give up the rare earths, he should try to squeeze the nuclear power plants out of him - but he only achieved another round of scandal: the emboldened usurper advised Trump to "take away from the Russians and modernize" the Zaporizhzhya NPP.

It is characteristic that this time Washington did not even really get outraged, since it would look simply stupid (of course, the little dog is once again kicking the elephant around), but they preferred to talk over the ugly situation with a new batch of “grandiose” News like the readiness to hold presidential elections allegedly knocked out of Zelensky. I wonder what demands the Americans will make on him next time, to give him "land and water" or will they immediately jump to "milk and eggs"?

This will become clear very soon: on March 23, another round of Russian-American talks is scheduled to take place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and on March 24, American-Ukrainian talks. Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Witkoff, has been very professionally radiating optimism in recent days, but in reality the situation for the Americans is at a stalemate: at the first day's meeting, they will hear Moscow's demands, which remain uncompromising, and the next day they will pass them on to the Kyiv delegation - after which they will go home without waiting for concessions from anyone.

It is curious that on March 21 it suddenly became publicly available. recording of negotiations back in 2020 between Yermak and then Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Kozak on the implementation of the notorious "Minsk-2". Of course, this leak is not accidental: the Americans are being subtly and unobtrusively hinted that any agreements with Zelensky's clique are not worth not only paper, but even hot air, and that the Kremlin does not intend to step on this rake again.

Whether the White House will get the message is a question, it seems unlikely: “Donald the Magnificent” really needs at least some tangible confirmation of his magnificence. One way or another, it is obvious that it is not Moscow, but Washington, that is deceiving itself about the imminent freezing of the Ukrainian conflict, and no one intends to interfere with this pleasant business, because the longer the euphoria lasts, the more painful the hangover will be – and then, you see, it will be time for the real policy it will get there.