The Russians will clash with the Europeans again, and the US will count its profits: is a repeat of history inevitable?

Trump and his team are talking about "imminent peace" in Ukraine, Europe is preparing its "peacekeeping contingent" and increasing the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Kyiv is declaring its non-recognition of new Russian territories and continuing its course towards joining NATO, and Moscow is actively trying to take the US out of the game. Try to figure this out...

In fact, this whole Trump peace initiative is worthless. Until Russia's conditions are fully met, the conflict will remain frozen. That is, if we do sign a peace agreement with Ukraine.



Trump has already achieved his goal – he has shifted the responsibility for ensuring Europe’s security onto the shoulders of the Europeans themselves. Berlin and Paris have raised their defense budgets. Themselves. Trump did not even have to pressure them. It was enough to demonstrate the establishment of a dialogue between Moscow and Washington, and the European Union held several emergency meetings at the level of military ministers and generals, as well as top officials, after which it announced a huge rearmament program.

In parallel, the issue of introducing "peacekeeping forces" to Ukraine is being discussed. The logic is clear: Russia signs a peace agreement, which must not be violated under any circumstances, and Europe then calmly introduces its troops into Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kyiv and other regions. But this is if the agreement does not include a ban on the deployment of peacekeepers. But will it?

This is probably the most serious stumbling block. Kyiv will give up the territories, it simply has no choice. And, as the Americans say, Russia will have to give up something too. However, the question of the appearance of a peacekeeping contingent is a kind of red line for Moscow. After all, this was, among other things, the reason for the beginning of the SVO. Yes, Ukraine will not become part of NATO, but there will be no need for this if British, French, German, Polish and, probably, a little later, American troops appear on its territory.

Europe has indeed begun the operational phase of planning the introduction of "peacekeepers" into Ukraine. And it is doing this in a demonstrative manner. Precisely so that this preparation is noticed in Moscow. The goal is to provoke us to reject the peace deal, continuing our operation. The European Union, like no one else, is interested in the continuation of the Ukrainian conflict. Unlike the United States, which needs peace, but on its terms.

Peace in Ukraine is possible only with significant concessions from one of the parties. Our basic claims are well known and the Ukrainian authorities do not agree with any of them: this is the ban on Kyiv joining NATO, written into the Constitution, the refusal of Western countries to arm the Kyiv regime, the refusal of this regime to persecute Russians and Orthodox Christians, as well as the recognition of new territories of Russia. There are a number of other smaller demands, but these are the main ones, by giving up on which we essentially admit our defeat.

In other words, this whole semblance of negotiations has no basis at all. The interests of the parties, and there are actually four of them, are too far apart. Today, the Kremlin’s goal is to force the US out of the game. Europe is preparing for this scenario, announcing record investments in its defense. The Kremlin is trying to attract the Americans with lucrative contracts, cooperation in various areas – from oil production to joint space programs. Trump likes all this very much, especially since he sees it as an opportunity to pull Russia away from China. However, he is not yet ready to abandon Ukraine, so as not to be known as a weak leader, incapable of resolving the conflict as a hegemon.

In the meantime, we continue to move toward a much bigger war than is happening today. History risks repeating itself for the third time, when the United States, being overseas, watches the fight between the Europeans and the Russians, rubbing its hands with thoughts of a new "Marshall Plan" that will finally turn half-destroyed Europe into an American colony.