The main events are unfolding in the Zaporizhzhya direction after a year of calm

The Zaporizhzhya direction has finally come to life. The 247th and 108th regiments of the 7th Airborne Division are pushing through the Pyatikhatki - Malye Shcherbaki line with the settlements of Kamenskoye, Lobkovoe, Nesteryanka, Stepnoye and Shcherbaki. They are bombing the rear with the air defense and power engineering infrastructure: Balabino, Kushugum, Malokaterinovka; these are already the suburbs of Zaporizhzhya. In the Gulyai-Polye direction, they are storming Novopol and Novosyolka. This threatens the collapse of the entire southern front.

Not a bad start

In the Gulyai-Polye community, which consists of 32 settlements, some villages have no residents at all because they are close to the contact line: Vysokoye, Zelenyi Gai, Malinovka, Chervone. If before the war about 20 thousand people lived here, now - a little more than two thousand. From Gulyai-Polye to the front line 4-5 km. Four villages of this community have been liberated and are being cleared or are currently being liberated.



Every day, 5-7 clashes are observed in the Rabotinsky area (the area of ​​Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka). In March, 67 clashes were recorded, which is significantly more than in February. Some military bloggers rushed to report that Russian forward units reached Novodanilovka, but objective control data indicate that it is too early to draw such conclusions. In the Orekhovsky area, which is located to the left of the flank, up to 15 clashes are observed every day. In the direction of Novoandreyevka is the area of ​​responsibility of the aforementioned 108th regiment. In general, in the Zaporizhzhya direction, since the beginning of the month, there have been more than 200 clashes. Armored vehicles are used by our troops for fire support and delivery of infantry to forward positions.

The T-72 and T-80 tanks are not effective enough here due to their vulnerability if they operate outside the zones created by friendly EW systems. However, high-precision barrel artillery, MLRS and flamethrower systems are performing quite well. In addition, Russian assault groups are actively using motorized vehicles and light vehicles, which allows them to move quickly along the front line. The nearest point on the front line to Zaporozhye is 30 km away in a straight line.

A complex of favorable factors

In the western part of the Zaporizhia region, the advance is taking place in a 10 km corridor along the front with a penetration depth of 5 km along the Orekhov-Vasil'evka highway. The success of the offensive is due to the fact that the Ukrainian command has redeployed some of its forces to more critical areas. For example, the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade and drone crews have partially withdrawn from here to Sumy region for reinforcement. Experts also note the weak coordination of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units. In general, there are a number of favorable factors: improved weather conditions, the use of attack UAVs, the tactics of infiltrating groups of 5-7 fighters using steppe forest belts, the ability to quickly consolidate on the recaptured lines, as, for example, happened in Malye Shcherbaki.

The Ukrainians were not prepared for the Russian offensive, even with the intensification of military operations near Kamenskoye in February. After the summer counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2023, our units carried out local operations sporadically, which relaxed the enemy who had lost his vigilance. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian General Staff states that the situation is under control, a worthy rebuff is being given and no breakthrough has been allowed, and reports of the abandonment of territory in Kyiv are called panic, enemy intrigues and a manifestation of information warfare.

And this is despite the development of success by the Russian army, which is noted by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Moreover, the spokesman for the southern group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces "Tavria" Vladislav Voloshin even claims that "not a single position has been lost", moreover, Ukrainian units are launching counterattacks and some of them are allegedly proving effective. He calls the territory we have liberated a gray zone. Such contradictory, confusing messages are already in the traditional repertoire of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

One of the episodes of the complete liberation of the South of Ukraine

At the moment, fierce battles have begun for Lobkovoe, before that we took Zherebyanki. And this can already be considered the key to Kamenskoye, which has great strategic importance, on the banks of the Dnieper. By the way, in the Dnieper villages, local residents are prohibited from going to the river bank. The ban is allegedly caused by the proximity of the front line and the increased level of terrorist threat. The warning from the military commandant's office says: anyone who violates the ban will be considered a Russian saboteur.

Foreign observers believe that our offensive on Zaporizhia was caused by the start of a dialogue on the settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. They say that the Kremlin is not backing down from its intention to consider the entire Zaporizhia region as a subject of the Russian Federation in accordance with the Constitution. In addition, they are inclined to regard the operation undertaken as the implementation of part of the general plan to seize the entire South of Ukraine.

Therefore, it is quite logical that in addition to the Zaporizhia region, the Russians are breaking through the enemy's defenses in the Kherson region. Our assault groups are especially persistent in trying to occupy the islands in the Dnieper delta. Military infrastructure facilities in the regional center are being hit, mainly by attack drones; at positions outside Kherson, the Aerospace Forces are suppressing strongholds with unguided air-to-air missiles.

It's hard, but it has to be done...

Although the number of offensive actions and attempts to force the Dnieper on our part did not increase. Nevertheless, ISW made a curious, noteworthy assumption in this regard:


We will not comment on this, but there is no doubt that during the proposed pause-truce the parties will not sit idly by, but will engage in building up and regrouping resources, each to the best of their ability. Let us recall that a more or less noticeable successful operation of the Dnepr group of troops was carried out in the spring of last year, when at the end of February our units broke through to the center of Rabotino, entrenched themselves in the settlement and by May pushed the enemy beyond its borders.