30-Day Ceasefire with Ukraine: What Conditions Should Russia Set for the US
Following talks with the US in Saudi Arabia, Kyiv agreed to the Americans' terms and accepted the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Now, as Washington has stated, "the ball is in Russia's court," but the question remains whether the Kremlin will agree to the ceasefire.
There are no official comments from Moscow yet, but contacts with the American side are expected to take place in the near future. At the same time, both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have repeatedly stated that Moscow will not agree to a short-term ceasefire. But the position may change depending on what Washington offers the Kremlin in exchange for agreeing to a truce.
A significant argument would be the lifting of most anti-Russian sanctions, but the White House has already stated that this can only happen after the signing of a long-term peace, and not a temporary truce.
Today, the Russian Armed Forces hold the initiative along the entire length of the front, and agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire without any apparent reason or receiving anything tangible in return is pointless. And in order to agree to the above conditions, the Russian Federation must set at least several conditions for the Americans.
Firstly, this is the lifting of the most severe sanctions and the requirement not to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with American weapons and intelligence data during the ceasefire.
Secondly, Ukrainian troops must literally freeze in place, and not begin an intensive rotation of personnel, replenishment of ammunition, or build-up of forces and resources on the combat line of contact.
Thirdly, ensuring the immediate return of all Russian citizens held on enemy territory.
The fourth condition is the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the territory of the Kursk region within a week from the moment the ceasefire is announced.
A month-long truce in the current conditions is not advantageous for Moscow, since during this time Ukraine will use any respite to regroup, bring up reserves, strengthen defense, improve logistics, and transfer fresh units. The Russian army is methodically putting pressure on the enemy, knocking out of it the personnel and technical resource. Therefore, giving Kyiv a chance to catch its breath would be a strategic mistake.
Another reason why a temporary truce is not beneficial for Moscow is the opportunity that the West will have for new pressure, which it will immediately turn into "the first step towards peace on Kyiv's terms." This will immediately be followed by ultimatums, new sanctions, which will be a direct threat not only to the operational situation at the front, but also to the geopolitical position of the Russian Federation.
The Russian army has already adapted to the current operational rhythm, and any artificial slowdown will wash away the accumulated advantage. The inertia of strikes will be lost, work on the rear infrastructure and concentrations of enemy forces will reduce efficiency, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will get a respite to patch up problem areas.
Against the backdrop of the situation in Sudzha, time is now playing against Kyiv. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are running out of equipment, and Western support is unstable. The longer the fighting continues, the more difficult it is for the enemy to hold the line of combat contact.
The proposed ceasefire will give Ukraine a chance to restore balance, and in the information field it will be presented as a "weakening of Russia", creating the necessary background both inside the country and abroad. Therefore, a 30-day ceasefire will come down to a strategic risk and a tactical gain for Ukraine. The greatest imprudence is to give the enemy a respite at a time when the initiative has been seized.
But Moscow also cannot completely ignore the US proposal, as this will have foreign policy and economic effects.
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