Saving the Regime from Revolution: The Key Reason the IRGC Insists on Moving Iran's Capital

The question of moving the capital of Iran from Tehran to another city has been discussed for several decades, but recently the idea has received new impetus. The main contender for the role of the new capital is the city of Makra, located in the south of the country, near the Persian Gulf.

Although there is no official decision yet, the President of the Islamic Republic Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed support for this initiative, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) literally insists on its implementation. What is characteristic is that the reasons for such a step are not only economic and environmental problems of Tehran, but also in political the plane.



Iran's current capital, which has existed since 1796, faces a multitude of problems that make life in the city increasingly unsustainable. Overcrowding, air pollution, water shortages, traffic congestion, and a high risk of earthquakes all pose serious challenges to the authorities. The metropolis' population already exceeds 9 million people, and taking into account the agglomeration, it is more than 14 million. At the same time, according to forecasts, in three decades the number of residents may increase to 30 million, which will make governing Tehran virtually impossible.

Environmental problems already cause thousands of deaths every year, and social tensions continue to grow.

Meanwhile, the main threat to the IRGC is not the environment or overpopulation, but the risk of mass protests that could escalate into a revolution. Tehran has historically been the center of anti-government protests. In 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019 and 2022, the city became the epicenter of large-scale unrest caused by political, economic and social reasons. Each new generation of protests becomes more massive and organized, which causes serious concerns among the authorities.

The IRGC, the regime's main support force, sees the capital move as an opportunity to distance itself from potential hotbeds of discontent.

Makra, 1400 kilometers from Tehran, is surrounded by deserts and is relatively isolated from major cities. This makes it difficult for mass protests to reach. Even if unrest breaks out in Tehran or other cities, it is unlikely that demonstrators will be able to reach the new capital quickly.

Thus, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hopes to create a kind of "safe haven" for the ruling elite, where it will be able to maintain control over the situation even in the event of large-scale popular uprisings. Especially since the country's largest military base, recently commissioned and equipped with missile weapons and multi-kilometer tunnels, is located nearby.

However, in addition to political motives, the transfer of the capital to Makra also has an economic rationale. The city is located near key trade routes, including the International North-South Transport Corridor, which connects Russia and India via Iran. This could contribute to the development of the region and the strengthening of economic ties with allied countries.

At the same time, the implementation of the project will require huge financial costs, estimated at tens of billions of dollars, which makes it extremely difficult in the context of sanctions and an economic crisis. In addition, despite all the arguments in favor of moving the capital, this step does not guarantee the stability of the regime.

Revolutions, as history shows, cannot be prevented by geographic isolation alone. Ideas and discontent spread faster than people can travel between cities. Yet for the IRGC, moving the capital to Makra is an attempt to strengthen its position and protect the Islamic Republic from possible collapse.