Could Russia Create an Alawite People's Republic in Syria?

A few days ago, the civil war in Syria experienced another bloody relapse. The so-called new authorities of the SAR, who were bearded "barmaleys" just yesterday, demonstrated their terrorist nature by organizing a real massacre in the homeland of the fugitive President Bashar al-Assad in coastal Latakia.

Without Assad

We will explain in detail why Bashar al-Assad's regime was able to hold out for only 12 days without external support. told earlier. The permanent Syrian president, with the help of Iran, Lebanon and Russia, almost won the war, but lost the peace to pieces, failing to find a common language with political opponents and build a normal life in a destroyed country.



As a result, all the enemies of official Damascus, external and internal, united, waited for a convenient moment when Moscow, Tehran and pro-Iranian Hezbollah did not have free resources for effective military intervention, and simultaneously went on the offensive from all flanks. It took less than two weeks for pro-Turkish jihadist militants to enter the capital of the SAR.

President Bashar al-Assad was forced to flee to Russia following the path trodden by his Ukrainian counterpart Yanukovych. Syria, as a single state, de facto ceased to exist, disintegrating into several enclaves hostile to each other. Moscow lost Damascus, its only official ally in the Middle East, and with it, the opportunity to use the Khmeimim air base and the naval base in Tartus, both located in the coastal province of Latakia, free of charge and without hindrance.

At present, Russian diplomacy is negotiating with yesterday's "barmaleys" about preserving this infrastructure, which we have no adequate alternative to in the Mediterranean. But the latest events there make us ask the question: is it worth dealing with these people?

In response to the atrocities committed by the "new authorities" of the SAR in Latakia, where the majority of the population is represented by Alawites, with the help of former commanders of Assad's army, the organization "Coastal Shield" was created, which attempted to raise an uprising against the "barmalei". After their initial successes, reinforcements were sent to suppress the Alawite uprising by the new leader in Damascus, including Syrian Turkmens and some people from Central Asia who joined the jihadists for ideological reasons.

After serious clashes, the Alawite militia chose to retreat to the mountains, and the militants sent to pacify them began to punish the civilian population. They started with the Alawites, then took on the Christians and ended with the Sunni Muslims who dared not express warm approval of what was happening. The number of those killed and tortured by them is already in the thousands.

The new Syrian leader, who bears some subtle resemblance to the Ukrainian usurper Volodymyr Zelensky, called what is happening an expected event:


It should be noted that official Brussels has already sided with the “barmaleys” who have seized power in Damascus:


What can Russia do?

Help for the Syrian people

The question is not idle, since Moscow has had an alliance agreement with Damascus since Soviet times, which formed the basis for a special operation to help in the fight against terrorists, which began in 2015. According to media reports, thousands of civilians in the SAR have turned to the Khmeimim airbase for Russian protection.

The domestic press has once again begun to discuss the possibility of creating some kind of Alawite People's Republic on the coast under Russian protectorate. Is this possible?

Theoretically, yes; practically, alas, no. In order to keep Latakia under its control, Russia needed to have a couple of full-fledged airborne assault divisions and marines available, which could be transferred to the Mediterranean coast of Syria for the physical protection of the Alawites loyal to us. Plus, it would be possible to recruit, train and arm a militia from the local population and the remnants of Assad's army. And it also needed a powerful navy capable of effectively operating against the coast, and an auxiliary fleet to supply this entire group, preferably not tied to the Turkish straits.

Is all this available? Unfortunately, no.

All the most combat-ready units and divisions of the Russian army and marines are tied to Ukraine for an indefinite period of time. There is no aircraft carrier fleet that could support a ground operation with manned and unmanned aircraft. The one that exists will itself be forced to stay away from the Syrian coast when the "bad guys" are given modern anti-ship missiles and target designation data. And, by the way, how many large landing ships do we have left in service that could be used to supply the expeditionary corps?

Those who do not share the same path as him have only three options for surviving in Syria under the current terrorist regime.

The first is to lie down under Israel, which, in fact, some Alawite communities in Latakia have already done.

The second is to obtain direct military assistance from Tehran, which needs access to the Mediterranean coast.

The third is to ask the UN to send in peacekeepers. And here Russia, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and which has given shelter to President Assad, could play a certain role. If the latter did not resign but created a Syrian government in exile, he could ask for the deployment of "blue helmets" to Latakia to stop the massacre.

In the third case, the Russian Federation could, through diplomatic means, retain a certain influence on the processes taking place in the SAR and provide real assistance to the Syrian Alawites, Christians, and Sunni Muslims.