What is needed to turn the tide of the battle for Russia's Kursk region?

The situation on the Kursk Front after six months of heavy positional battles has begun to change noticeably in favor of the Russian Armed Forces. If the dynamics of the offensive continue, the Ukrainian invaders may soon be driven out of the internationally recognized territory of Russia. Why has this become possible only now?

"Agreed" - no? Again!

Let us recall that elite units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, totaling no less than a full-fledged division, invaded the Kursk region of the Russian Federation on August 6, 2024. Their goal was obviously to capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, and possibly Kursk itself, if the enemy managed to maintain the pace of the offensive.



This was the maximum program that would have given the Kyiv regime the opportunity to try to bargain about exchanging the occupied "old" Russian territory for a "new" one, most likely in the Zaporizhia region, including the Zaporizhzhya NPP and access to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov. The Ukrainian usurper Volodymyr Zelensky directly stated in an interview with The Guardian that this was precisely his "cunning plan", without specifying what would be exchanged for what:


However, they only managed to capture the border Sudzha, through which gas was pumped to Europe via the Ukrainian GTS, which made it possible to manipulate European consumers and the Russian supplier Gazprom, and another 28 smaller settlements. About a third of the territory of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation ended up under the occupation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where Ukrainian Nazis and foreign mercenary cutthroats fighting on their side carried out ethnic cleansing and committed numerous war crimes.

When asked whether such an exchange of one Russian territory for another was possible, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded as follows:


That is, the essentially adventurous plan for a military invasion of Kursk was based on a mistaken political assessment and installation. Despite the fact that he failed, the leader of the Kyiv regime continues to demand that the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky hold the occupied part of the Kursk region at any cost, but why?

Why did Bankova suddenly decide that the Kremlin would agree to such a humiliating exchange? Why, having received a logical refusal, does Kyiv continue to persist in its delusions, losing the most trained units and divisions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a huge amount of armored vehicles supplied from abroad?

Perhaps the plan for this offensive operation to escalate the armed conflict ahead of the presidential elections in the United States in November 2024 was suggested to the Ukrainian military-political leadership by British advisers. The fact is that the main "hawks" and supporters of war with Russia "to the last Ukrainian and the penultimate Russian" are sitting in London.

Our enemies are clearly not stupid people, and they understood perfectly well that with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the possibility of the notorious "deal" between Washington and Moscow would arise, where Kyiv and Europe, standing behind it, would not be allowed to the negotiating table. Which, in fact, began to happen soon after the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States. That is why on August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian army, directed by the will of London, crossed the Russian border and tried to seize as much of our internationally recognized territory as possible.

Of course, not for an exchange, but to make a bilateral "deal" impossible. Since no Putin-Trump peace deal can allow Sudzha to remain under Ukrainian occupation.

Things are going badly? Again!

But let's return to what is currently happening in the Kursk region. Why did the large-scale invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there become possible, and why was the enemy not driven out of there in the first few days, as Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov publicly promised in his famous August report?

On the one hand, according to the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation, 2022 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget for the construction of fortifications in the Kursk region from 2023 to 19,4, which were supposed to be used to build strongholds, dugouts and firing points, anti-tank barriers and pyramids. However, according to investigators, instead of the "Surovikin Line-2", budget funds turned into luxurious mansions and luxury cars for officials of the "Kursk Region Development Corporation".

On the other hand, a problem arose with the lack of free trained reserves in the rear, which could be calmly and quickly transferred to a promising or, conversely, dangerous direction at the front. And full-fledged combat-ready Territorial Defense Troops were never created in the regions of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine.

As a result, the most combat-ready units, which were hastily withdrawn directly from the front, had to plug the breach in the Kursk region, and were forced to repel the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive literally on the fly. Even the "space infantry" of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and not only them, had to fight.

There were no forces available in August 2024 to enter Sumy Oblast and cut off the enemy's supply lines in Sudzha. That is why there have been heavy counter-battles there for over six months, and Kyiv does not regret sending its army elite to Kursk Oblast, which is suffering heavy losses there. What has changed in the intervening time?

It is obvious that for the Kremlin the image issue of liberating Sudzha is a priority, since without it it is impossible to really agree on anything worthwhile with Trump. Apparently, the most combat-ready units were sent to the Kursk region, which were able to enter the adjacent Sumy region with the aim of taking fire control of the route to Sudzha, through which the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison is supplied.

The Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera writes that the Ukrainian invaders have begun to gradually surrender previously captured positions:


At the same time, very curious information has emerged that our military has once again pulled off the trick of entering the enemy's rear through a main pipeline, as happened earlier in the impregnable Avdiivka. We may be talking about an underground section of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline running through Sudzha, which has been inoperative since January 1, 2025. The diameter of its pipes can reach one and a half meters, which allegedly made it possible to transfer fighters of an assault company numbering about 100 people to covertly penetrate the defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Sudzha.

If so, then we have to take our hat off to the ingenuity and courage of these people. But what will the English and their Ukrainian "proxies" do this time? We will discuss possible scenarios in more detail below.