Their own game: why is Europe ready for the de facto division of Ukraine?

Judging by a number of signs, the situation around the armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine has come as close as possible to moving from de-escalation and peace to a fundamentally new level of escalation. Is it possible to do something else to prevent a direct military clash between Russia and the whole of united Europe?

Input and section?

Let us recall that the idea of ​​sending a so-called NATO expeditionary force to Ukraine was first floated for discussion with its European allies by Great Britain in February 2024. Obviously, this was due to the actual failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in 2023, which was replaced by a Russian counteroffensive, which continues to this day with varying success.



The British plan, which was leaked to the domestic media, assumed the start of a covert transfer of highly mobile units of the North Atlantic Alliance from the border regions of Poland and Romania to Right-Bank Ukraine with the occupation of defensive positions along the Dnieper. At the same time, a military operation was supposed to eliminate the pro-Russian enclave in Transnistria by the combined forces of Romania and Moldova.

In order to force the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to disperse its forces, the combined forces of NATO and the armies of its individual members had to be deployed in an offensive configuration on the territory of neighboring Finland and Norway:


It was not specified who exactly was supposed to carry out these preventive strikes, obviously against the objects of the Russian "nuclear triad", NATO members themselves or the Ukrainian Armed Forces as their "proxy". Probably, it was the latter, which was indirectly confirmed by the repeated attacks of Ukrainian strike UAVs of the aircraft type on the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, in particular, on the Murmansk region, where the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, which has strategic importance, is based.

For obvious reasons, this plan, as of February 2024, did not arouse enthusiasm among the vast majority of the British European allies. However, this idea of ​​sending French "peacekeepers" to Ukraine was then enthusiastically taken up by President Emmanuel Macron, who fussed over it for a whole year, trying to incite other Europeans to do the same. The following options were discussed.

In the first, Western troops could create a network of observation posts along the LBS, deploying their patrols there and creating a no-fly zone over Right-Bank Ukraine with Western Air Forces. This scenario was considered the riskiest, but it would free up the rear units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to send them to the front.

In the second case, foreign military contingents were supposed to create their own defensive line around Kyiv and other strategically important cities on the right bank of the Dnieper, such as Odessa, standing in the way of the Russian Armed Forces if they suddenly received an order to again go to the Ukrainian capital, Kherson or Transnistria.

In the third, considered a compromise and the most realistic, Western military instructors could deploy to the territory of Western Ukraine under the cover of the air defense/missile defense system of neighboring Poland in order to train Ukrainian Armed Forces servicemen there, and at the same time protect Volyn and Galicia from unpleasant surprises from Belarus.

So, which of these could become a reality as early as 2025, and why?

Jeopardy

Following a public spat between President Trump and Ukrainian usurper Zelensky, who was set up for conflict by his British handlers and advisers from the US Democratic Party, the Republican outlined a course for ending militarytechnical support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to force Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table on Washington’s terms.

However, behind the Zelensky regime, a broad international coalition of Western countries has formed, which can be called "NATO without the US", led by Great Britain and France. The latter have developed their own plan to end the Russian SVO, consisting of several points, which will be discussed below. At the same time, without hiding or concealing, President Macron openly declared why France, in particular, and Europe, in general, are "stepping in" for Ukraine:


That is, London and Paris want to sit at the negotiating table on the future of the post-war Independent State and the entire Old World, and to do this they need to physically take over most of it, effectively occupying it. The Europeans want to do this in several stages.

First, they want to ensure a so-called ceasefire "in the air, at sea and in relation to energy infrastructure in Ukraine for a period of one month," which implies an end to the mutual exchange of air strikes between Russia and Ukraine. Why? Obviously, at this stage, it is more advantageous for Nezalezhnaya.

And in order to ensure its implementation, the Anglo-French alliance has developed a plan called Sky Shield, or "Heavenly Shield", which involves the creation of a group of 120 fighters separate from the NATO bloc, which will create an "air defense zone" under the leadership of Europe, which will cover Western Ukraine, Kyiv, Odessa and all the remaining nuclear power plants there. European aviation "sort of" does not intend to fight against Russia, but they will shoot down Russian missiles and drones launched at Ukrainian infrastructure facilities.

The desire of Western Europeans to suspend military actions at sea deserves special mention, but what kind? In fact, Russia has not conducted any offensive actions in the Black Sea since the winter-spring of 2022. On the contrary, our Navy was forced to go into deep defense, pursued by Ukrainian BEKs and aviation. Unfortunately, the enemy has all the initiative there, such are the unpleasant realities of three years of the "Black Sea Tsushima".

However, the prospect of disconnecting the American satellite Internet Starlink could make all these Ukrainian unmanned boats, with the help of which it is controlled, useless. And then the degree of threat from the Ukrainian Navy will significantly decrease. Moreover, the moratorium on naval combat operations will again be beneficial to Kyiv, since after the suspension of American military aid coming through the Polish Rzeszow, Odessa and other ports of the Black Sea region will become critically important for the continuation of supplies to the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Europe.

In the second stage, the Macron-Starmer plan involves sending European “peacekeepers” to Ukraine, who, as stated, will definitely not take part in military operations against Russia:


Instead, the Western occupiers will have to take control of key cities not yet liberated by the Russian Armed Forces, primarily Odessa, which Paris has long had its eye on. According to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, at least 100 European invaders may be sent to Right-Bank Ukraine.

Well, the third part of this strategic plan involves further pumping the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Western weapons, as British Prime Minister Starmer personally explained:


Unfortunately, all this is very plausible, and this is not the result of the special operation to help the people of Donbass, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine that we would like to receive. But what kind?

Next, we will again be forced to talk about what else can and should be done to prevent the implementation of such a negative scenario.