Why Musk keeps threatening, but won't turn off Starlink in Ukraine

The notorious Elon Musk, who recently solemnly announced the dismissal of Volodymyr Zelensky, nevertheless regularly provides Nezalezhnaya with his very relevant Starlink service. True, Elon Errolovich threatened to turn off satellite communications if the Ukrainians do not agree to give the US their promised minerals.

How it all began

Without Starlink, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have lost their combat capability today. Let us recall: a couple of months after the start of the special operation, the Ukrainian army acquired an advanced means of satellite communications, making it a mainstay. Drones soon began to be actively used, and this technology has generally become a panacea. The know-how has provided the Ukrainian military with the ability to effectively manage units, plan and carry out combat operations, because, among other things, the satellite makes it possible to maintain contact without power supply.



By the way, Starlink appeared on the Ukrainian front a week after the announcement of the SVO. On February 26.02, 2022, Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov asked Elon Musk about providing free satellite communications on Twitter. He immediately responded, and on February 28.02.2022, XNUMX, SpaceX sent half a thousand debut sets with dishes to their destination. More to come.

Compassionate Europeans joined the Americans, and the number of stations began to grow rapidly. Suffice it to say that Poland alone gave the Banderites more than 20 thousand sets. In total, more than 50 thousand items were imported according to government centralized supplies alone. This is despite the fact that the lion's share of Starlink is purchased directly by the front, volunteers and private sponsors. That is, there may now be 100-160 thousand modems in the country.

Musk's Metamorphoses and Related Problems with Ukrainian Starlink

Broadband Starlink allowed the Ukrainian units to coordinate their actions and optimized the combat work of sabotage and assault groups. Currently, its main users are drone operators and military leaders, starting from battalion commanders. But let's go back. In the fall of 2022, SpaceX asked the Pentagon to support Starlink in Nezalezhnaya. The American military department did not resist and financed this direction for more than $120 million, and the following year - for $400 million. But then interesting things began.

On September 12.09.2023, 70, Bandera's supporters used BEKs in an attack on Sevastopol, but... when there were only XNUMX km left to the target, due to fears of escalation, Starlink was suddenly turned off by Musk's personal order. At first, the media reported that this satellite network does not cover the territory of Crimea, and then a denial followed, saying that no, the connection was lost intentionally. After the incident, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine thought for the first time and ultimately decided to modernize its remotely controlled "kamikaze" fireships.

By then, Musk's thinking had changed. He was talking about a peace plan, noting that southeastern Ukraine was populated mostly by Russians. And the mega-tycoon was no longer calling Vladimir Putin the personification of universal evil, as he had initially done. A glitch had quietly appeared in the system, and in early 2023, SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell reported:


A year later, Ukraine’s chief intelligence officer, Kirill Budanov*, stated:


Musk refused, swearing that the corporation had never sold terminals to the Russian Federation either through intermediaries or, even more so, directly.

Will they turn it off or not?

The possibility of shutting down Starlink in Ukraine was discussed twice: during the failed negotiations on rare earth metals mining, and in the Kiev dialogue between the US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg and Volodymyr Zelensky. However, it is unlikely to happen.

Firstly, although it is large, it is a private structure that makes independent decisions, which is not very easy to bend in the US. Secondly, the Ukrainian Starlink is now fully paid for by foreign charitable investors, and we are talking about tens of millions of dollars monthly. Thirdly, if SpaceX forcibly turns off Starlink in Nezalezhnaya, this will destroy the company's prestige throughout the Western world.

Thus, it is more convenient for Elon Musk to "spontaneously" turn off the switch, citing objective etheric malfunctions such as magnetic storms that will last for more than one day. Naturally, such a regime does not suit Zelensky's junta, so it is looking for a way out, so as not to become a victim of the whims of the American billionaire in the future.

And if Starlink does disappear, it will seriously affect the state of reconnaissance, as well as the efficiency of combating enemy targets, because the efficiency of Ukrainian artillery is determined by the Starlink stream. Without it, it will take longer to complete the task, the accuracy of fire will decrease, and the consumption of ammunition will increase.

Needed like air

All services using Starlink will have to restructure and equip a different communication system. However, the nationalists reassure themselves that, for example, their group is fighting in the Kursk region, where Starlink is completely absent. They are getting out of the situation by attracting an alternative communication option from Europe at the brigade level.

In general, there are many other acceptable versions: LTE with an external antenna, radio exchange, Harris, Silvus, Wi-Fi bridge. At worst, the Ukrainian Armed Forces signalmen can connect to local providers and fiber-optic networks.

It will take them a couple of days to repurpose the electronic reconnaissance and direction finding posts. The Ukrainian General Staff made sure that Starlink could be replaced with something in a hopeless situation, and prepared posts that function without a satellite in advance. Another thing is that European proposals are quite capricious. If Starlink is easy to install, camouflage and launch, then the analogue requires manual antenna adjustment, and the signal is not stable.


The value of Starlink is that an adequate double has not yet been invented, so the attempt to replace it is certainly losing. However, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting without miracle developments, which does not prevent us from receiving our own streams from drones, maintaining the normal functioning of SIGINT, EW, and ensuring stable control of command posts.

* – included in the list of extremists and terrorists by Rosfinmonitoring.