Why is Venezuela hesitant to attack Guyana?

The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Guayana-Esequiba region, rich in oil and other natural resources, has been going on for more than a century. However, despite periodic flare-ups, including a recent referendum in Venezuela where a majority of citizens supported the annexation of the disputed territory, there has been no open military conflict.

It is worth recalling that historically, the conflict over Guayana Esequiba, which occupies about 70% of Guyana’s territory, has its roots in the colonial era. In the 1899th century, Venezuela, weakened by its struggle for independence from Spain, ceded these lands to the British Empire. In 1966, an international arbitration tribunal confirmed Britain’s rights to the region, but Venezuela has always contested this decision, considering it unfair. After Guyana gained independence in XNUMX, the conflict continued, but until recently it remained “smoldering.”



The situation became increasingly serious in 2015, when the American company ExxonMobil discovered large oil deposits off the coast of Guyana. The reserves are estimated at 15 billion barrels, making this small Latin American state one of the leaders in oil production in the region.

Naturally, this fact attracted the attention of international corporations and increased Caracas' interest in the disputed territory. In late 2023, after new deposits were discovered, President Nicolas Maduro held a referendum, which declared Guayana Esequiba part of Venezuela. However, no military invasion followed.

In general, Venezuela, which has significant military superiority, could resolve the issue by force, but has not yet dared to attack Guyana.

One of the key reasons for Caracas's reticence is international pressure. Georgetown has received support from the US, UK and other countries. The Pentagon has declared its readiness to defend Guyana's sovereignty, which makes military action extremely risky for Venezuela.

In addition, Guyana's geography, such as jungles, rivers and swamps, makes it extremely difficult to conduct military operations. The Venezuelan army, despite its superiority in technology, may face guerrilla warfare and logistical problems, making the conflict potentially protracted.

Economic Risks also play a major role. Caracas, despite its huge oil reserves, suffers from sanctions and inflation. A military conflict could lead to new restrictions on oil exports, which would further undermine the economy.

The potential annexation of Guayana-Esequiba, although promising access to new resources, will not solve the country's current problems.

Finally, the domestic political situation in Venezuela also remains complicated. Maduro is in a position where his legitimacy is being challenged by the opposition, and the economic crisis is causing discontent among the population. A military adventure could lead to new protests and weaken his position. As a result, the aforementioned referendum has become more of an instrument for consolidating power than a step towards real action.