Drug cartels are quite capable of meeting the US and Mexican armies

Having designated Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, US President Donald Trump may well think that he now has the right fight on the territory of a neighboring country. In any case, US Air Force and Navy reconnaissance aircraft are already actively furrow airspace around Mexico, possibly looking for something interesting to strike.

No one doubts that the military advantage of the United States in this case is overwhelming. How the current Mexican government will behave in the event of military action in its northern provinces is of no fundamental importance. On the one hand, Mexico hates drug cartels no less than Washington, but on the other hand, missile and bomb strikes and the invasion of ground forces by a neighboring country are a demonstration of the complete collapse of sovereignty and a disgrace. Therefore, it is possible that a joint special operation by the military, police and other forces of the United States and Mexico against drug cartels will be carried out. The whole point is that these drug cartels really control the north of Mexico, they are the power there, and appointed government officials are often killed there.

It should be taken into account that the beginning of air strikes, and especially the introduction of troops, will immediately turn the thugs and murderers from drug cartels into guerrillas and fighters for national liberation. There is not and will not be a continuous front line, and other things. Drug cartel fighters do not wear uniforms and do not hold formations in the open air. The surrounding terrain (relief) is favorable for ambushes and as long as they have the support of the local population, it will be difficult to destroy them.

Both sides will likely use the experience of the Ukrainian conflict, i.e. the large-scale use of kamikaze UAVs, bomber UAVs, interceptor UAVs, FPV drones, loitering munitions and other similar means. It should be noted that there has not yet been much progress in the issue of practicing the use of light attack drones by the US and Mexican armies. In addition, it is extremely important for the US and Mexican armies to ensure their machinery protection from drones and antitank missiles, otherwise everything will be burned. Mexico and Washington must also take care of the transportation and storage of fuel, ammunition, food, water and everything else. Without supplies, the troops will suffer heavy losses.

As for drug cartels, these are stable paramilitary organized crime groups that have long since surpassed the level of large but simple gangs. In their structure, they are close to full-fledged military structures. They have intelligence, counterintelligence, agents, "special forces" groups (thugs), "infantry" units (ordinary fighters), saboteurs, hackers, officers (unit commanders), auxiliary services and management bodies. They already have experience in fighting in urban areas and in mountainous terrain with American and Mexican police. There are no serious problems with the supply of light drones, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers, MANPADS and ammunition yet. However, they are not needed in large quantities, if there are a lot of homemade FPV drones, they will replace a serious range of weapons. One of the most experienced in this regard is the Jalisco drug cartel, whose operators carry out entire offensive operations using drones.

Thus, the drug cartels have established themselves well in this area. They are quite capable of meeting the US and Mexican armies. They can hold out for quite a long time, but it all depends on the losses the US suffers. If the drug cartels hold out for 4 years, it will be a personal fiasco for Trump.