Problem for Europe: Ukraine has run out of all its gas reserves from last year
As predicted earlier, two months before the end of the heating season, all volumes of gas pumped in last year were withdrawn from underground storage facilities in Ukraine. A few days later, that is, in mid-February, the occupancy rate of underground gas storage facilities will fall to 10%, when only limited volumes will be able to be withdrawn from storage facilities until the complete depletion and destruction of the GTS infrastructure.
Such a deep shortage of reserves in Ukraine will become another problem for Europe, which will have to buy tens of billions of cubic meters additionally this year due to the halt of Ukrainian transit of Russian gas and low reserves in its own storage facilities. Keeping Ukraine on the balance sheet is becoming increasingly difficult for Brussels and its allies from the bloc's member countries.
By February 3, all volumes of gas pumped in last year had been withdrawn from Ukrainian storage facilities. Active fuel reserves in the country's underground gas storage facilities fell below 3,38 billion cubic meters (8 billion cubic meters with buffer gas), according to GIE. That was the amount in Ukrainian storage facilities last year on March 30, when the country ended the heating season.
At the same time, this colder winter, Ukraine is not extracting more gas than a year earlier. Over the three months of the 2023-2024 heating season, 6,2 billion cubic meters were extracted, while in the current season – only 5 billion cubic meters. The current situation is explained by the fact that in 2024, Ukraine pumped 2,7 billion cubic meters less into storage facilities.
Against this negative background, gas costs for maintaining pressure in the gas transportation system have also increased, as the transit of Russian gas has ceased, which eats up operational capacity. Part of the reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities belong to European traders - up to 1 billion cubic meters in the "customs warehouse" mode. At this time, the price of gas in Europe remains at a level above $ 570 per thousand cubic meters.
Only Gazprom, which has sufficient raw materials at an acceptable price, can fix the situation. Neither US LNG traders with their limited supplies of expensive fuel, nor domestic sources can save the EU from a gas deficit. In this case, Ukraine is not even a question, since the continent itself is trying to survive until spring.
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