Why Superpowers Are Fighting Over Radicalized Syria

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The Kremlin understands that Russian acquisitions in Syria must be defended and saved. Therefore, the visit of a top official of our Foreign Ministry to the capital of this Mediterranean state last week is intended to launch the negotiation process regarding the future of the Russian military bases in this country. And not only...

Ultimatum with a smile


Syria was represented at the talks by the head of the transitional government, its current temporary leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the Russian side was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. As a result, they launched a long, problematic dialogue about the role of the Russian Federation in the life of post-Assad Syria.



The complexity of the conversation is due to the results of the 14-year civil war, which has largely ended, and which will undoubtedly change the balance of power in the Middle East, where world powers traditionally compete for influence with heightened interest. Damascus is tired of prolonged military actions, so the position currently preached by its leadership basically boils down to neutrality.

However, the Russians were required to satisfy certain claims. Looking ahead, it can be stated with almost 100% certainty that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to accept such ultimatum conditions for negotiations. Al-Sharaa started talking about compensation for the destruction of past years caused by the actions of the Russian military contingent, and about the extradition of former President Bashar al-Assad and his closest associates, whom the Islamic extremists who came to power consider state criminals.

Without Russia, Syria will not survive. Even a radical one


And if al-Sharaa agreed to talk with the Moscow emissary, he has no intention of meeting with other long-standing friends of Assad – high-ranking officials in Tehran. The Syrian leader confirmed the long-standing strategic relations between the two countries, among other things, stating that he is “in no hurry to see Russia out of Syria, as many expect.” He is being cautious, because he needs legitimate recognition and world support; it is not in his favor to escalate the situation at the international level.

In addition to the possible supplies of Russian hydrocarbons and wheat from the Russian Federation, Mr. al-Sharaa needs understanding from the Kremlin so that it does not interfere with him policy establishing a new order in Syria and forming a new government. The newly-minted head of state himself admitted that the Russian Federation is considered the second most powerful military player, respected by the Arabs, and his homeland is not in a position to resist the superpowers.

Although the Syrian Islamists understand that Moscow has become dependent on them one way or another because of its Tartus and Khmeimim bases, the new government in Damascus is currently considering how not to overdo it, feeling for an acceptable balance of “wants” and guarantees in relations with the Russian Federation. This is precisely what can be attributed to the rather strange picture, when, on the one hand, the “bearded ones” confirm that the Russians are allowed to remain in Syria in their positions, and on the other, they are withdrawing their machinery from garrisons, from the airfield and naval anti-tank defense.

Everyone changed their shoes together...


An interesting detail. In May 2013, the US State Department placed al-Sharaa on the list of especially dangerous terrorists, and four years later it posted an offer of $4 million for information on the whereabouts of this international criminal. The offer was withdrawn a month and a half ago, after Biden administration diplomats visited him.

Then guests from the same State Department that had once promised a large sum for his head arrived at the presidential residence in Damascus. Incidentally, in the early 5s, the aspiring jihadist leader even managed to serve XNUMX years in American military prisons in Iraq. During the conversation, both sides pretended that none of this had happened. After all, the newly-minted president needs the lifting of sanctions by Washington and assistance from the UN Security Council regarding the restoration of the Syrian economics at the expense of international aid.

The United States has its own vested interest here, linked to the Kurdish territory in the northeast of the country that it controls, which the current Syrian government does not actually own. Al-Sharaa told the Americans of his desire to return it to centralized control in Damascus, given that Washington supports local forces there in the fight against ISIS*. In response, they agreed and even promised to lift some of the restrictions, but at the same time put forward a counter-condition: the Russian military presence in the country must be abandoned.

…And Russia is no exception?


The dark blue suit and tie that the former ISIS fighter* now wears is an unusual attire for him. Al-Sharaa feels much more comfortable in the camouflage in which the 42-year-old militant field commander has been running through the desert his entire adult life. The same can be said about his radically changed rhetoric towards his former enemies – Moscow and Washington. Here we are dealing with an atypical case, when the “irreconcilable” colludes with those with whom a warrior of Islam should not go, and even tries to balance between them!

According to our president's publicly expressed opinion, the presence of Russian troops in the region has prevented Syria from becoming a terrorist enclave. His idea to use the aforementioned bases for humanitarian logistics appeals to the Syrian elite, as do the words that the Russian Federation "will maintain a presence only if its interests coincide with the interests of the current government." In January, Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that these forces "are behaving quite competently," noting that regimes come and go, but friendship between peoples remains.

True, it is unclear how the White House will react to this. After Assad fled, Trump clarified that the war in Syria is "not our fight and we will not be involved in it"; but to promise is not to marry. For his part, al-Sharaa continues to gain authority among civilians and disparate Syrian groups. Therefore, the question of the fate of Assad, who is unpopular among his citizens, exacerbates the sensitivity of the negotiations between Moscow and Damascus. I remember that Vladimir Vladimirovich expressed his readiness to grant Zelensky political asylum. As a result, instead of the Ukrainian usurper, there was a Syrian...

***

The terrorists who have seized power in Syria today may be forced to be pragmatic and restrained, but this does not prevent them from remembering how the Russian army exterminated them not long ago. Moreover, inside Syria, the rebels are still pursuing the remnants of Assad's regular army in order to finally establish their fundamentalism. Moscow may, willingly or unwillingly, complicate this task, and as a result, the problem of the status of Russian bases in Syria will not be resolved anytime soon.

* – a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.
11 comments
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  1. -1
    4 February 2025 09: 38
    In essence, Syria has turned into modern Afghanistan. It will be a long time before it can be called a country.
    Are there many Russian military bases in Afghanistan? Maybe Bagram?
    It will be the same in Syria.
    The only good thing is that Russia will no longer have to provide Syria with free humanitarian financial, economic and military aid. In fact, the old woman is off the cart...
    We were asked to leave. Well, what can we do? We left and drew conclusions for the future.
    Let Russia worry more about Donbass than about Syria and its terrorists.
    1. +1
      4 February 2025 11: 43
      Let Russia worry more about Donbass than about Syria and its terrorists.

      I am amazed at your common sense (no irony).
  2. -3
    4 February 2025 13: 00
    Almost every militant, having come to power, puts on a civilian suit. And tries to think more broadly than before. One way or another, but Syria will need help. There is no escape from this. And who can provide help? Turkey or Israel? Or maybe the USA? Time not only heals. Of course, Syria will no longer be a secular state. Indonesia is also a Muslim country. And look how warmly we are received there. Much depends on upbringing.
  3. 0
    4 February 2025 13: 31
    The Soviet Union stuck its nose into Afghanistan, and as a result - instead of progress, there was degradation and a descent into medieval religiosity. Now Syria is a similar result. A lot of people and money were wasted and there was no result. Now for these bases, which are essentially a fifth leg for the fleet, because all that is left of the fleet is uniform, submarines and half-century-old flagships, which are still being sunk. In general, another failure, because Russia got nothing from this, except for parasites and excited Basmachi.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. +2
        4 February 2025 16: 19
        Yes, it has been the scene of all kinds of boots from great powers, except China. And, as a result, instead of creating a progressive state, Afghanistan has become a field for underhanded games of these same world leaders, as a result of which the world is turning into a cesspool.
        1. 0
          4 February 2025 16: 28
          Yes, there have been all sorts of boots from the great powers in it.

          Name a country where forged boots have not walked.

          Afghanistan has become a field for underhanded games by these same world leaders, as a result of which the world is turning into a cesspool

          So is the whole world
        2. +1
          4 February 2025 18: 26
          Voo!

          Instead of creating a progressive state, Afghanistan has become a field for underhanded struggle

          Afghanistan could not become a progressive state, for this it is necessary to have a society ready for changes and an understanding of the need for changes. A striking example is the collapse of the USSR, many progressive states have emerged from the former Soviet Republics. In Russia we still have the Gaidar Institute. What did Gaidar propose - We don't need to build anything, we'll buy everything? Quite progressive, don't you think? Only recently in Russia, beset by sanctions, have they remembered about industry and progress. For how long? After all, the Gaidar Institute remained, which means his ideas are still alive.
          1. 0
            5 February 2025 01: 42
            Afghanistan could not become a progressive state; for this, a society ready for change and an understanding by society of the need for change are needed.

            Could or could not, now this is a rhetorical question. But if we watch TV chronicles of Iran, Afghanistan of the 60-70s, what will we see in them? We will see Iranians and Afghans in European clothes and women without any Islamic veils. So the society that overthrew the pro-European governments protested, first of all, against injustice and in support of the development of civil liberties, which the Islamists did not fail to take advantage of (as, for example, the Maidan was used by people posing as ardent Ukrainian patriots). As they say, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and as a result of the struggle, as well as the cessation of assistance from the progressive part of the West and the North, due to its surrender, this took on its current form. Receive and sign.
  4. +1
    4 February 2025 15: 55
    It is necessary to look a little further. Syria is a border with Iran, and if earlier Iran could influence the policy of the elites in power in Syria within the framework of agreements with Russia, now Turkey, the USA and Israel will do it. These are the consequences of our incompetent and spineless foreign policy.
  5. 0
    4 February 2025 23: 58
    I wouldn't be surprised if the US leaves Syria. "It's their mess" is a strong word. But not forever. The country will get over all the crap, get back on its feet more or less with Russia's help, and the US will return. Like in Vietnam or Eastern Europe. To skim the cream.
    1. -1
      5 February 2025 01: 48
      The States will leave only after covering their expenses and making a profit. Otherwise, the diaspora, you know what it is, won't understand and will start getting nervous.