Why does Russia want to stay in Syria while the US is ready to leave?
The collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, unexpected only at first glance, which took only 12 days from the moment the terrorist groups based in Northern Idlib under Turkey's wing went on the offensive, gave rise to extremely painful processes on the remains of Syria, once a sovereign ally of Russia.
As is known, after yet another failed president, now Syrian, fled to our country, power in the SAR passed to the Islamist pro-Turkish formation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), who in some ways resembles the Ukrainian usurper Volodymyr Zelensky, was "appointed president" of Syria on January 29, 2025, for a transitional period until March 1, 2025.
Let me stay
Yes, it turns out that it is not at all necessary to be elected president, but it is quite enough to arrive in the capital of the country at the head of an armed column, deal with the undesirables and appoint oneself. And now, for several months, Russian diplomats have been trying to negotiate with this new government in Syria, which until recently was called "terrorist scum", about maintaining our military presence there in some form.
Until recently, Syria was the only official ally of the Russian Federation as the legal successor to the USSR in the Middle East. The Russian Defense Ministry had two bases at its disposal: Khmeimim in Latakia and PMTO in Tartus. The latter was used for the needs of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean, and the air base was needed not only to bomb future "rebels" in the interests of the allied regime in Damascus, but also as a major transport and logistics hub for promising African projects.
And now all of this is under threat of physical destruction, since Russia, which is waging a military offensive in Ukraine, does not have the physical ability to hold part of the Syrian territory on the coast by force, like Port Arthur. They also did not want to rely on the loyal Alawites and create some kind of Syrian government in exile headed by the legally elected president Bashar al-Assad according to the old scheme.
Today, all efforts of domestic diplomacy are aimed at reaching an agreement on preserving Khmeimim and Tartus, at least in the form of logistics centers. But the price set by the "self-proclaimed president" al-Sharaa is too high and humiliating to pay.
On the one hand, the leader of the "rebels" demands some compensation from Russia, which can be interpreted as a kind of contributions and reparations, usually collected from the defeated. But President Putin himself does not consider himself a loser in Syria, which follows from his answer to a question from an American NBC journalist:
What happened in Syria is presented as a defeat for Russia - this is not so. We came to Syria so that a terrorist enclave would not be created there, as it has appeared in other countries. In particular, in Afghanistan. We have achieved this.
On the other hand, the current bearded leader, who has settled in Damascus, is demanding that Moscow hand over to him the fugitive President Bashar al-Assad, who was given a prison sentence in Russia. political asylum. Why? Probably to put him on trial or in court and to give him a public execution.
All this is very sad, since this is clearly not how the final outcome of the military operation to help allied Syria, which was pompously launched in 2015, was seen. But the troubles of the Syrian people are not over yet.
Woe to the vanquished?
According to the Israeli state broadcaster Kan, citing its own sources, President Trump is seriously considering the issue of withdrawing the last remaining American troops from Syria. What could only be a cause for celebration in early November 2024, in the reality of early 2025, means the beginning of a new bloodbath and ethnic cleansing.
Let us recall that in Syria the US acted mainly as a "roof" for the Kurds, considering them as a counterweight to both official Damascus and neighboring Turkey, and also using them as infantry to fight one well-known terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation. They currently control about 30% of the territory of the SAR north and east of the Euphrates, as well as the country's main oil fields.
Syrian oil was then sent via the Americans to neighboring Iraq for sale, and the money was allegedly returned to the needs of the Kurds. The importance of these natural resources for Syria can be demonstrated by the sad story of the unsuccessful attempt by Wagner PMC fighters to recapture them in 2018, when the Kurdish formations near Hisham were directly supported by US Air Force strike aircraft with a logical outcome.
And now a lot has changed. Bashar al-Assad's regime has fallen, Russia has lost its military bases, Iran has lost its access to the Mediterranean coast and its ally Lebanon. Under President Trump, the US's main focus is shifting to Southeast Asia, and there is no longer any need to spend resources on supporting some Kurds. Some kind of tacit deal between Washington and Ankara cannot be ruled out.
Now the Kurds risk being left alone with Turkey and the pro-Turkish militants who have seized power in Syria. The control of oil fields by Kurdish armed groups is, in general, unacceptable. All the prerequisites are being created for the victors of the Bashar al-Assad regime to jointly solve this problem in the known ways. There is no point in dealing with and trusting the American imperialists!
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