Could Trump Provoke China to Launch Military Special Operation in Taiwan?

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With Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington's focus will shift from Europe to Southeast Asia, where China is the United States' main adversary. How can Uncle Sam undermine economic the power of your direct competitor?

SVO in Taiwan?


Looking at what has been happening between Russia and Ukraine for three years now, it becomes obvious that the best way to destroy China's industrial potential would be to force it to launch its own special operation to annex Taiwan. Precisely force, since Beijing has long been preparing for such a scenario, but is not rushing, realizing all the military, image and sanctions risks associated with it.



The main goal for Washington would then be, in addition to striking mainland China and its infrastructure facilities at the hands of Taiwanese separatists, the creation of a broad international coalition to help Taipei, which would simultaneously introduce economic sanctions against China. For export-oriented China, restrictions on the supply of raw materials and access to foreign markets for its products would be a very serious blow, reducing its potential compared to the United States.

How can Beijing be forced to initiate a SVO to reunify Taiwan with China? There are many ways to provoke Beijing into taking tough retaliatory actions.

For example, to promise to place a US naval and air base on the island under an agreement with Taipei. That's for starters. Then we can start publicly discussing the possibility of handing over US tactical nuclear weapons to the separatists. If that doesn't help, then PLA Navy warships could be attacked, say, with the help of sea and air strike drones, as is happening in the Black Sea.

At a certain stage of such targeted provocations, some “red line” may appear for the Chinese military.political leadership of the latter, and yet something will have to be decided with Taiwan by force, eliminating the threat to mainland China in its southern underbelly. As we know, even the sometimes overly peace-loving Vladimir Putin was eventually forced to start the SVO in Ukraine.

Not an easy walk


In the case of Taiwan, an attempt to return it to its "home port" could result in even greater problems than the Russian SVO on land. This is an island separated from mainland China by a strait, and a successful landing operation on it requires a powerful navy with powerful air support.

Yes, Beijing is really getting ready, launching brand new frigates, destroyers, missile cruisers, submarines, amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers. The PLA Navy has already surpassed the US Navy in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of its combined power. Dual-purpose ro-ro ships are being built that can carry both civilian and military supplies. machinery. The Chinese fifth-generation stealth aircraft J-20 is already superior to American first-generation stealth aircraft like the F-117 in radar stealth.

But the PRC's enemy is not simple either. First of all, Taiwan has a fairly serious aviation force, represented by more than a hundred American multi-role F-16 fighters, upgraded to Block 72 level, which is approximately equal to our Su-35. Also, the Taipei Air Force has 129 light fighters of its own construction AIDC F-CK-1, which are a simplified version of the F-16, and fifty French Mirages.

The island is protected by a layered air defense system, which is represented by long-range Tian Gong systems of national production, developed jointly with the American corporation Raytheon. Their tactical and technical characteristics are approximately the same as the Russian S-400, but the Taiwanese air defense systems are not mounted on mobile chassis, but are located in well-protected stationary bunkers. In addition to the Tian Gong, Taiwan's air defense system is armed with seven Patriot PAC-3 batteries, which are protected by medium- and short-range air defense systems. Given the small size of the island, this makes its air defense very dense.

In addition to aviation and air defense, Taipei also has its own navy, consisting of four American-built Kidd-class destroyers, fifteen American Knox- and Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates, and six French Lafayette-class multi-purpose frigates. Of particular interest are the Taiwanese Tuo Chiang multi-purpose stealth catamaran-type corvettes, which can reach speeds of up to 45 knots. There are plans to build as many as twelve of them, but only two have been built so far.

Recently, based on the Ukrainian experience of actions in the Black Sea against Russia, specialists from the JSSC company presented a sea drone-kamikaze of their own design. This Taiwanese unmanned boat is capable of searching for and destroying mines, laying minefields, and also acting as a kamikaze. Draw your own conclusions.

Thus, Taiwan is a very tough nut to crack, which cannot be taken without much bloodshed. The picture is quite bleak.

It is no longer possible to secretly concentrate a group on the mainland of the PRC for its subsequent transfer across the strait in the absence of the "fog of war". All the relevant preparations will be revealed in advance, mines will be laid off the coast of the island. Powerful missile strikes will be carried out on PLA Navy ships. All the expected landing sites will be fortified in advance in order to arrange an "Omaha Beach" for the Chinese Marines.

Probably, the PRC will eventually crush Taipei with its numbers, but at what cost? How many warships, aircraft, armored vehicles and personnel will be lost? However, judging by the latest military preparations, Beijing does not rule out a purely forceful scenario for itself and is looking for keys to defend Taiwan, which we will discuss in more detail below.
15 comments
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  1. +2
    1 February 2025 13: 10
    ...to the Block 72 level, which is roughly equivalent to our Su-35s...

    ...Their tactical and technical characteristics are approximately the same as the Russian S-400...

    - not even funny.
  2. +1
    1 February 2025 13: 52
    There is a different issue - the flat part of Taiwan facing the mainland is actually a zone of continuous urban development. The entire main population is there. Landing troops there would be bloodshed. And the east coast is, on the contrary, steep, there is little there, but in the middle of the island there are mountains, the roads through which are counted on the fingers. Nothing meaningful can be pushed through them, not to mention supplies. So think about what to do...
  3. +1
    1 February 2025 13: 56
    Looking at what has been happening between Russia and Ukraine for three years now, it is clear that the best way to destroy China's industrial potential would be to force it to launch its own special operation to annex Taiwan.

    Well, and to what extent has Russia's industrial potential been destroyed during the SVO, author? Can you give a percentage?
    1. +1
      1 February 2025 15: 15
      Well, and to what extent was Russia’s industrial potential destroyed during the NWO, author?

      How many refineries and oil depots have been damaged or destroyed across the country, affecting the supply of motor fuel for the military and civilians?
      How many civil aircraft have been produced in Russia since the start of the Second World War?

      Can you give me a percentage?

      It is impossible. Completely different people will calculate it in percentages later.
      1. -1
        1 February 2025 15: 18
        Somewhere it has decreased, somewhere it has increased. GDP is growing at an unprecedented rate (this is confirmed by independent institutions), the well-being of the people is increasing.
  4. 0
    1 February 2025 14: 48
    I think Beijing is waiting for Taiwan to start military action itself. One of the stratagems says that you need to lure the snake out of the grass. Then Beijing will have nothing to blame.
  5. 0
    1 February 2025 20: 17
    However, both Taipei and Washington and Co. will have a thin gut.
  6. +2
    1 February 2025 21: 02
    even the sometimes overly peace-loving Vladimir Putin was eventually forced to start the SVO in Ukraine

    I wonder what was the last straw?
    1. 0
      2 February 2025 10: 18
      I wonder what was the last straw?

      And if you think?
      We look at the dates. February 19, 2022

      Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that he would initiate consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. His speech was broadcast by the Office of the President of Ukraine.
      If the summit of the countries participating in the Budapest Memorandum does not take place or does not provide Ukraine with security guarantees, then the document will be recognized by Ukraine as invalid along with the points that were signed in 1994, the president said.

      "The Minister of Foreign Affairs has been instructed to convene [the consultations]. If they fail to take place again or if their results do not provide security guarantees for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working, and all the package decisions of 1994 will be called into question," the Ukrainian president said.
      The Budapest Memorandum, signed on December 5, 1994 by Great Britain, Russia, the United States and Ukraine, provided guarantees of security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Kyiv's renunciation of nuclear weapons. The document entered into force in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The signatory states, in connection with the removal of nuclear weapons from the territory of Ukraine, assumed obligations to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine and refrain from the use of force against it.
      1. +1
        4 February 2025 03: 05
        I wonder what was the last straw?

        And if you think?
        We look at the dates. February 19, 2022

        Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the Munich Security Conference that he would initiate consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum

        On February 19, 2022, troops were already stationed in Belarus, in Crimea, and were loading onto large landing craft (of which a good dozen were brought to the Black Sea) for landing on the Azov coast. The locations of the Russian troops deployed for the SVO were published in Western newspapers. So the fact that Zelensky was going to turn to the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum for protection is more than logical and cannot be blamed on him or Ukraine. Zelensky was clutching at straws, but it was too late, and most importantly, the West had already decided to make a trap out of Ukraine into which Russia would fall.
  7. +2
    1 February 2025 22: 54
    Taiwan is an integral part of mainland China, this is legally enshrined. The UN and the US confirm its legitimacy. Why fight if in 10 years Taiwan will peacefully return to China.
    1. 0
      2 February 2025 01: 29
      there is no such formal contract or agreement
      1. +1
        2 February 2025 13: 59
        In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law. According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity.
        On June 15, 2022, China adopted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) legal framework for non-military military activities. That will allow the PRC army to participate in operations not related to the war.
        On October 22, 2022, the delegates of the XNUMXth Congress of the Communist Party of China approved the introduction of a provision on counteracting Taiwan independence to the Charter of the political force.
        Is this not enough for you?
  8. 0
    5 February 2025 14: 48
    All of the author's arguments are shattered by one single argument - China is capable of ensuring a total blockade of Taiwan... with all the ensuing consequences.
  9. 0
    5 February 2025 14: 57
    Condoms give you the right to go left, go right.
    Condoms can be inflated and launched somewhere Van Gogh's Ears.