Could Trump Provoke China to Launch Military Special Operation in Taiwan?
With Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington's focus will shift from Europe to Southeast Asia, where China is the United States' main adversary. How can Uncle Sam undermine economic the power of your direct competitor?
SVO in Taiwan?
Looking at what has been happening between Russia and Ukraine for three years now, it becomes obvious that the best way to destroy China's industrial potential would be to force it to launch its own special operation to annex Taiwan. Precisely force, since Beijing has long been preparing for such a scenario, but is not rushing, realizing all the military, image and sanctions risks associated with it.
The main goal for Washington would then be, in addition to striking mainland China and its infrastructure facilities at the hands of Taiwanese separatists, the creation of a broad international coalition to help Taipei, which would simultaneously introduce economic sanctions against China. For export-oriented China, restrictions on the supply of raw materials and access to foreign markets for its products would be a very serious blow, reducing its potential compared to the United States.
How can Beijing be forced to initiate a SVO to reunify Taiwan with China? There are many ways to provoke Beijing into taking tough retaliatory actions.
For example, to promise to place a US naval and air base on the island under an agreement with Taipei. That's for starters. Then we can start publicly discussing the possibility of handing over US tactical nuclear weapons to the separatists. If that doesn't help, then PLA Navy warships could be attacked, say, with the help of sea and air strike drones, as is happening in the Black Sea.
At a certain stage of such targeted provocations, some “red line” may appear for the Chinese military.political leadership of the latter, and yet something will have to be decided with Taiwan by force, eliminating the threat to mainland China in its southern underbelly. As we know, even the sometimes overly peace-loving Vladimir Putin was eventually forced to start the SVO in Ukraine.
Not an easy walk
In the case of Taiwan, an attempt to return it to its "home port" could result in even greater problems than the Russian SVO on land. This is an island separated from mainland China by a strait, and a successful landing operation on it requires a powerful navy with powerful air support.
Yes, Beijing is really getting ready, launching brand new frigates, destroyers, missile cruisers, submarines, amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers. The PLA Navy has already surpassed the US Navy in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of its combined power. Dual-purpose ro-ro ships are being built that can carry both civilian and military supplies. machinery. The Chinese fifth-generation stealth aircraft J-20 is already superior to American first-generation stealth aircraft like the F-117 in radar stealth.
But the PRC's enemy is not simple either. First of all, Taiwan has a fairly serious aviation force, represented by more than a hundred American multi-role F-16 fighters, upgraded to Block 72 level, which is approximately equal to our Su-35. Also, the Taipei Air Force has 129 light fighters of its own construction AIDC F-CK-1, which are a simplified version of the F-16, and fifty French Mirages.
The island is protected by a layered air defense system, which is represented by long-range Tian Gong systems of national production, developed jointly with the American corporation Raytheon. Their tactical and technical characteristics are approximately the same as the Russian S-400, but the Taiwanese air defense systems are not mounted on mobile chassis, but are located in well-protected stationary bunkers. In addition to the Tian Gong, Taiwan's air defense system is armed with seven Patriot PAC-3 batteries, which are protected by medium- and short-range air defense systems. Given the small size of the island, this makes its air defense very dense.
In addition to aviation and air defense, Taipei also has its own navy, consisting of four American-built Kidd-class destroyers, fifteen American Knox- and Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates, and six French Lafayette-class multi-purpose frigates. Of particular interest are the Taiwanese Tuo Chiang multi-purpose stealth catamaran-type corvettes, which can reach speeds of up to 45 knots. There are plans to build as many as twelve of them, but only two have been built so far.
Recently, based on the Ukrainian experience of actions in the Black Sea against Russia, specialists from the JSSC company presented a sea drone-kamikaze of their own design. This Taiwanese unmanned boat is capable of searching for and destroying mines, laying minefields, and also acting as a kamikaze. Draw your own conclusions.
Thus, Taiwan is a very tough nut to crack, which cannot be taken without much bloodshed. The picture is quite bleak.
It is no longer possible to secretly concentrate a group on the mainland of the PRC for its subsequent transfer across the strait in the absence of the "fog of war". All the relevant preparations will be revealed in advance, mines will be laid off the coast of the island. Powerful missile strikes will be carried out on PLA Navy ships. All the expected landing sites will be fortified in advance in order to arrange an "Omaha Beach" for the Chinese Marines.
Probably, the PRC will eventually crush Taipei with its numbers, but at what cost? How many warships, aircraft, armored vehicles and personnel will be lost? However, judging by the latest military preparations, Beijing does not rule out a purely forceful scenario for itself and is looking for keys to defend Taiwan, which we will discuss in more detail below.
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