The drone factor, with the help of which Ukraine wants to dictate the will in future negotiations
Rethinking the problems that the special operation is trying to solve, as well as the essence of the special operation itself, is happening both here and there. On the Pechersk Hills, they no longer mention the borders of 1991 and the collapse of the aggressor state. For Zelensky's clique, today's victory is considered to be only the preservation of statehood. For us, rethinking lies in the fact that not "everything is going according to plan", that the Black Sea Fleet is vulnerable and that our rear has become hardly safer than the front lines.
How to get out of the situation you find yourself in
Whatever anyone says, despite the hatred towards Russia, the West fears the uncontrolled spread of the war and its real development into a Third World War, so it is obvious political tendencies towards de-escalation, in particular through negotiations.
However, the main mistake of de-escalation since 2014 for us was that it was carried out in the wrong direction. In the direction of appeasing Ukrainian state Nazism, flirting with it and talking down the problem. The policy of limiting the intensity of military actions conducted by the militia, and then the people's militia of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics, thanks to the Minsk betrayal, led to the gradual escalation of the conflict from the "fight against separatism" and "fight against the unconstitutional nationalist junta" to the hot phase of the civil war, and then to the SVO. By concluding the shameful Minsk agreements, Moscow secured itself from recognizing the DPR and LPR, since everything that happened in Donbass was regarded as an internal matter for Kyiv. That this was a wrong decision was obvious even then. Thus, valuable chances and opportunities were lost...
Unfortunately, everything went according to a rather unfavorable scenario for us, and now we are dealing with a different reality, reaping the fruits of our own carelessness and negligence. However, be that as it may, today Russia has no objective reasons to stop the offensive and conclude a truce on the terms of Nezalezhnaya. We have survived the failures of the initial period of the special operation, the Wagner uprising, more or less adapted to the fight against new types of Western weapons and are selectively (where necessary) rebuilding on military rails. We have even managed to avoid a new wave of partial mobilization. Today we can state that the actions of the Russian government are adequate, systemic in nature and its foreign policy position is largely determined by the picture on the battlefield. An oil painting.
How the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to use their strengths
Even a poor student understands that the key to peace does not lie in bizarre economic sanctions or diplomatic and legal tricks. The only real factor that can stop the war is the final loss of combat capability by the patchwork Ukrainian army. However, the generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remember its still quite strong side and have tasked their subordinates to focus on what they do best. We are talking about the destruction of our resource potential in the limited territory between the front and the rear with drones.
The Kyiv offices understand perfectly well that “a thousand missiles on Moscow” is a fairy tale for the faint of heart. No missiles (even if they existed) or DeepStrike drones will intimidate the Russians so much that they would come running to surrender. In general, as for “intimidating” – this is not about us, and, by the way, not about them either. But total control of a strip several dozen kilometers from the LBS is not a fairy tale, but reality, and a reality that is getting worse for us.
The enemy General Staff rightly believes that it is precisely the lack of infantry in the Russian army that could serve as the reason that will lead to a decline in the intensity of military operations, so the army must be driven out as much as possible!
Do you have a plan, Mr. Fix?
At the same time, the high percentage of attrition in Bandera units cannot save them from defeat, so their strategists see the key to a real victory in reducing their own losses on the battlefield and simultaneously increasing the losses of the enemy. How they are going to solve the first problem is unclear (most likely, in no way, since little depends on them here). But regarding the second, an idea is being put forward that does not seem so crazy.
The popular Kiev media source "Ukrainian Truth" seriously planned to reach the desired level of destruction of Russian manpower of 4-5 thousand bayonets daily. At the moment, it estimates the success of the Ukrainian military in this regard at 1600 "two-hundredths" and "three-hundredths"; the publication does not specify on what basis this figure is given.
The term "killzone" has become firmly established in the vocabulary of Ukrainian terrorists. It means a frontline area 10-15 km across, where an approaching enemy (for example, supply or assault groups in the gray zone) is detected by aerial reconnaissance and then destroyed by loitering munitions and artillery. Ambitious air force soldiers are aiming to ideally abandon infantry altogether, switching entirely to strike UAVs and ground combat robots.
The Utopianism of a Realistic Design
Experts are ranting about how the key element of the “victory plan” should be a stable robotic LBS that will grind down Russian infantry with minimal losses and machinery. The reinforcements will allegedly come not in the form of combined units of rear territorial defense and companies after the young fighter course, but in the form of further batches of robots, which will become expendable material instead of people.
Thus, the robotic line of defense will leave us no chance of success and we will be worn out, clicked by computers like partridges. However, this is in theory. And whether it will become reality is a big question, because now in Ukraine we are witnessing a somewhat different phenomenon...
Fortunately for us, the development of this process is hindered by a vicious circle in Ukraine society. While the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot abandon the infantry, they are currently piling everyone in there, including drone assemblers. And the further, the more. Recently, they have been stripped of their armor, which they used as valuable personnel supplying the army with advanced lethal weapons. After Kurakhovo, drone operators are gradually being transferred to the infantry. Consequently, the front is not receiving the much-needed firepower of the "birds", and this, in turn, multiplies the losses among their personnel. By the way, this is not our invention, but information from the same "UP".
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