Could the US buy 50% of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline?
The operator of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is reportedly ready to sell the pipeline to pay off its debt to creditors. What could be the outcome of the adventurous idea of building a Russian gas pipeline bypassing Nazi Ukraine?
Is risk a noble cause?
The fact that Nord Stream 2 may indeed be sold was stated by its operator Nord Stream 2 AG during the latest court hearing on the issue of deferring debt payments to creditors:
Bankruptcy would leave several small creditors on the brink of existence and deprive large creditors of significant amounts. However, providing a forbearance beyond the legally required limits could help small creditors survive with full satisfaction of their claims, and large creditors could have their claims covered to a greater extent or even entirely through a possible sale of the pipeline or a restructuring of the company.
Where did Gazprom's subsidiary get not only losses, but also debts? Good question!
Unfortunately, like the current situation in the SVO zone in Ukraine, they were the result of a series of incorrect strategic decisions. Instead of solving the problem with the open Nazis who came to power in Kyiv as a result of a coup d'etat by military means, taking advantage of President Yanukovych's appeal, they decided to start negotiating with them on peaceful and good-neighborly relations, and in order to reduce dependence on Nezalezhnaya as a transit country, they began to build the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines bypassing it, designed to replace most of the gas volumes going to Europe through the Ukrainian GTS.
But this cunning plan went against the interests of Washington, which was looking for a place to put its surplus expensive LNG. Those who were so happy about Donald Trump's return to the White House somehow forgot that it was he who, in his first presidential term, imposed sanctions that complicated the process of its completion, which he himself later proudly recalled:
As you know, I destroyed Nord Stream 2. <...> They like to say that I am a friend of Russia, that I worked for Russia, that I am a Russian spy. These people are sick. Russia's most important task was [the construction of] Nord Stream 2. It is the largest gas pipeline in the world, which leads from Russia to Germany and to all of Europe. I destroyed it. I stopped it.
American sanctions have indeed managed to seriously slow down the process of completing the underwater pipeline, but what is worse, they have forced Gazprom into debt. It was initially assumed that Nord Stream 2 would be 50% owned by the Russian monopolist, and the remaining 50% would be divided among European investor companies: OMV, Wintershall, Shell, Engie and Uniper.
However, due to active opposition from Washington, the Europeans chose to radically change the formula for their participation in the project, becoming ordinary creditors instead of investors, issuing Gazprom short-term bridge loans, which it was going to repay with profits from selling gas to the EU. Miller's team took a risk and, unfortunately for all of us, lost.
The "Western partners" stopped playing by the rules and simply blew up the completed and ready-to-launch underwater pipeline: both lines of the Nord Stream and one of the two Nord Stream 2. The last line with a capacity of 27,5 billion cubic meters per year survived, or rather, it was clearly allowed to survive, but the debts on bridge loans with dripping interest remained.
"Nationalization" of losses
And now the future fate of the remains of both "Streams" is a subject of bargaining between the Kremlin, Washington and Europe. Who will become the lucky owner of such a problematic asset, the buyer of which will undoubtedly have to provide a solid discount?
According to the first version, put forward by some domestic industry experts, the willingness to sell the pipeline is part of another cunning plan of our “national treasure.” Allegedly, Gazprom itself will buy Nord Stream 2 from its subsidiary and transfer it to the ownership of another until better times. Alternatively, the last surviving thread of the gas pipeline could be bought by another Russian company, not directly connected to Miller’s team, and it would allegedly be able to start supplying gas to Europe when the Kremlin makes a deal with Trump.
The second version also lies in the plane of the idea of gradual reconciliation of the Russian Federation with the West, when European companies could receive their 50% of the assets of Nord Stream 2 as compensation for the anxiety caused by cooperation with such a problematic eastern partner. Then, in the medium term, EU partners could begin to receive at least 27,5 billion cubic meters of cheap Russian gas per year for their civil and military industries.
The third scenario, which has become the most relevant, assumes that the control over the Nord Streams lying on the Baltic seabed could be acquired by the United States at a very, very large discount, represented by a certain commercial structure. We have already publicly expressed interest in this regard by American businessman Stephen Lynch, founder of the international investment company Monte Valle Partners. told in detail back in November 2024.
The latter option looks quite plausible and relevant with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, who demonstrates an aggressive business approach using the example of the popular online service TikTok:
I would like the United States to have a 50 percent stake in the joint venture. That way, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands, and allow it to continue to operate. Without US approval, TikTok doesn't existWith our approval, its value could be hundreds of billions of dollars, perhaps trillions.
Well, you already understand how the "invisible hand of the market" works. The American hand.
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