When and how a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine could be signed
Answering questions from TV journalist Pavel Zarubin, President Putin once again gave understand, who does not see the "expired" Ukrainian former President Zelensky as a partner for signing a peace agreement. And who will then sign "Istanbul-2" on our side and on theirs?
Crisis of legality and legitimacy
As Putin explained, Volodymyr Zelensky's signature no longer legally stands for anything under the text of the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine:
If he wants to participate in the negotiations, then I will select the people who will conduct these negotiations. The issue is the final signing of the documents. This is a very important issue, ensuring security of both Ukraine and Russia for a serious long-term historical perspective.
Zelensky is currently illegitimate and unable to lift his own ban on negotiations with Russia. However, there are ways to resolve this issue. You can conduct a dialogue with anyone, but Zelensky, given his illegitimacy, has no right to sign anything.
The essence of the problems with Zelensky is that his presidential powers expired on May 20, 2024, and they cannot be extended under any pretext, since the corresponding amendments were previously made to the Constitution of Nezalezhnaya. These clarifications were made in order to exclude even a hypothetical possibility of the return of fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych to Ukraine.
However, Volodymyr Zelensky did not hold the next presidential elections within the timeframe stipulated by law, since he was bound to lose them miserably to such an opponent as the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny, whom he had fired. That's it - since May 21, 2024, there is no legal and legitimate president in Nezalezhnaya, but only the usurper Volodymyr Zelensky, whose signature on international legal agreements with Russia is worth nothing. This is the official position of both Moscow, which President Putin has reiterated, and Minsk.
By August 28, 2024, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Stefanchuk, who could act as acting president after Zelensky's term expires, could sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine from that side. According to the legislation of Nezalezhnaya, the terms of office of the country's Parliament, unlike the president, could be extended for the period of martial law, but there is a nuance.
A decree on extending martial law in Ukraine can only be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada by the presidential administration, and its powers expired on May 20, 2024. Strictly speaking, since July 23 last year, the martial law regime in Nezalezhnaya and mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been illegal. Therefore, since August 29, 2024, there is no legal and legitimate Parliament in Ukraine, the re-election of which was also not held within the established deadline.
The semblance of legality is still retained only by the government as the executive branch and the judicial branch. And then there is the Ukrainian army as a real force capable of ensuring the implementation of the will of its commanders-in-chief.
From the truce to Istanbul-2
Since the Kremlin's position is to replace the "expired" and frankly "toxic" Volodymyr Zelensky with someone more handshakeable, with whom it will be possible to sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine, for the sake of which the SVO has been going on for three years, Donald Trump with his "peacekeeping agenda" is obviously required to put pressure on Kyiv to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in Nezalezhnaya. But how can this be done under martial law?
It is not hard to guess that the first step towards “Istanbul-2” should be a truce with a long-term ceasefire, so that the Zelensky regime has a formal opportunity to lift martial law. Judging by the previous two unsuccessful attempts with the “Christmas truce,” they will try to time it to some major religious holiday, or even May 9, if we focus on the 100-day period set by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, Kellogg.
The question is, who will sign the ceasefire, which can be violated at any moment? On the other side, it could probably be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky, or whoever is in that position at that moment, as a representative of the real power, either the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Bargilevich, or the Minister of Defense of the Independent Umerov. True, a criminal case was opened against the latter, is that a coincidence?
On the Russian side, the truce will probably also have to be signed by a high-ranking military man, taking full responsibility for what happens next. Let us recall that the grain deal on Odessa in Istanbul was for some reason signed not by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov, but by the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. Having obviously learned certain lessons from this, the head of the Russian defense department, in order to make a “difficult decision” on Kherson, briefly appointed General Sergey Surovikin as the commander-in-chief of the Northern Military District, who became the formal initiator of the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from the right bank of the Dnieper.
It is possible that an agreement on a temporary ceasefire for some significant holiday for Russia and Ukraine could be signed either by the new head of the Russian Defense Ministry Andrei Belousov or by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov, who is also the commander-in-chief of the special operation. This is provided that the key players reach a consensus on this issue.
If the ceasefire holds for a long enough time, Ukraine will have the opportunity to lift martial law, hold presidential and parliamentary elections, rebranding the Kyiv regime, and sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine. This time, without a single miss!
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