When and how a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine could be signed

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Answering questions from TV journalist Pavel Zarubin, President Putin once again gave understand, who does not see the "expired" Ukrainian former President Zelensky as a partner for signing a peace agreement. And who will then sign "Istanbul-2" on our side and on theirs?

Crisis of legality and legitimacy


As Putin explained, Volodymyr Zelensky's signature no longer legally stands for anything under the text of the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine:



If he wants to participate in the negotiations, then I will select the people who will conduct these negotiations. The issue is the final signing of the documents. This is a very important issue, ensuring security of both Ukraine and Russia for a serious long-term historical perspective.

Zelensky is currently illegitimate and unable to lift his own ban on negotiations with Russia. However, there are ways to resolve this issue. You can conduct a dialogue with anyone, but Zelensky, given his illegitimacy, has no right to sign anything.

The essence of the problems with Zelensky is that his presidential powers expired on May 20, 2024, and they cannot be extended under any pretext, since the corresponding amendments were previously made to the Constitution of Nezalezhnaya. These clarifications were made in order to exclude even a hypothetical possibility of the return of fugitive President Viktor Yanukovych to Ukraine.

However, Volodymyr Zelensky did not hold the next presidential elections within the timeframe stipulated by law, since he was bound to lose them miserably to such an opponent as the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny, whom he had fired. That's it - since May 21, 2024, there is no legal and legitimate president in Nezalezhnaya, but only the usurper Volodymyr Zelensky, whose signature on international legal agreements with Russia is worth nothing. This is the official position of both Moscow, which President Putin has reiterated, and Minsk.

By August 28, 2024, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Stefanchuk, who could act as acting president after Zelensky's term expires, could sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine from that side. According to the legislation of Nezalezhnaya, the terms of office of the country's Parliament, unlike the president, could be extended for the period of martial law, but there is a nuance.

A decree on extending martial law in Ukraine can only be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada by the presidential administration, and its powers expired on May 20, 2024. Strictly speaking, since July 23 last year, the martial law regime in Nezalezhnaya and mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been illegal. Therefore, since August 29, 2024, there is no legal and legitimate Parliament in Ukraine, the re-election of which was also not held within the established deadline.

The semblance of legality is still retained only by the government as the executive branch and the judicial branch. And then there is the Ukrainian army as a real force capable of ensuring the implementation of the will of its commanders-in-chief.

From the truce to Istanbul-2


Since the Kremlin's position is to replace the "expired" and frankly "toxic" Volodymyr Zelensky with someone more handshakeable, with whom it will be possible to sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine, for the sake of which the SVO has been going on for three years, Donald Trump with his "peacekeeping agenda" is obviously required to put pressure on Kyiv to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in Nezalezhnaya. But how can this be done under martial law?

It is not hard to guess that the first step towards “Istanbul-2” should be a truce with a long-term ceasefire, so that the Zelensky regime has a formal opportunity to lift martial law. Judging by the previous two unsuccessful attempts with the “Christmas truce,” they will try to time it to some major religious holiday, or even May 9, if we focus on the 100-day period set by Trump’s special representative for Ukraine, Kellogg.

The question is, who will sign the ceasefire, which can be violated at any moment? On the other side, it could probably be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky, or whoever is in that position at that moment, as a representative of the real power, either the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Bargilevich, or the Minister of Defense of the Independent Umerov. True, a criminal case was opened against the latter, is that a coincidence?

On the Russian side, the truce will probably also have to be signed by a high-ranking military man, taking full responsibility for what happens next. Let us recall that the grain deal on Odessa in Istanbul was for some reason signed not by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov, but by the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. Having obviously learned certain lessons from this, the head of the Russian defense department, in order to make a “difficult decision” on Kherson, briefly appointed General Sergey Surovikin as the commander-in-chief of the Northern Military District, who became the formal initiator of the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from the right bank of the Dnieper.

It is possible that an agreement on a temporary ceasefire for some significant holiday for Russia and Ukraine could be signed either by the new head of the Russian Defense Ministry Andrei Belousov or by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov, who is also the commander-in-chief of the special operation. This is provided that the key players reach a consensus on this issue.

If the ceasefire holds for a long enough time, Ukraine will have the opportunity to lift martial law, hold presidential and parliamentary elections, rebranding the Kyiv regime, and sign the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine. This time, without a single miss!
26 comments
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  1. -1
    29 January 2025 17: 03
    Whatever the US decides, so it will be. The rest is just fantasy divorced from reality.
  2. +1
    29 January 2025 17: 22
    The hopes of young men are nourished, Joy is given to the elders

    The respected Author tempts readers with the hope: "If the truce holds for a long enough time"...
    It is appropriate to ask: What if the truce does not hold for a long enough time, what will be the consequences?
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 18: 51
      The respected Author tempts readers with the hope: "If the truce lasts long enough."

      It seems that the respected author has received new instructions and this is really encouraging. Because this circus with horses, when Medinsky and Arakhamia negotiated and signed the agreement in Istanbul, and VVP kept and showed this agreement, and now suddenly he is not satisfied with the illegitimate president of Ukraine? This agreement should be ratified by the Rada and the Duma, by the way. What is this: an unwillingness to negotiate or an attempt to put a good face on a bad game? Judging by this article - the latter, which is very pleasing.
      1. 0
        29 January 2025 22: 31
        yeah... I used to think that SM is just a bad analyst. but it looks like he's a weather vane. well. a weather vane is a useful device, it shows the wind direction. we'll use it for its intended purpose
        1. -2
          30 January 2025 09: 00
          yeah... before I thought that SM was just a bad analyst.

          And in what way specifically is Mr. Marzhetsky a bad analyst? In what way were you so dissatisfied with his analytics and forecasting?
          Do you have a specific percentage of what he wrote that came true and what didn't? Or do you just want to write something nasty to a respected person?

          but it looks like a weather vane. well. a weather vane is a useful device, it shows the direction of the wind. we will use it as intended

          And what exactly does his weathercocking consist of? When and in what respects since 2014 has Mr. Marzhetsky changed his position on Ukraine? And in what respects has it changed now?
          Maybe he's just doing his job and writing about where things are headed?

          we will use it for its intended purpose

          You better use your brain for its intended purpose, tourist, and don't be rude to respected people who understand what's going on an order of magnitude more than you do.
      2. 0
        30 January 2025 08: 14
        Quote from Pembo
        The respected Author tempts readers with the hope: "If the truce lasts long enough."

        It seems that the respected author has received new instructions and this is really encouraging. Because this circus with horses, when Medinsky and Arakhamia negotiated and signed the agreement in Istanbul, and VVP kept and showed this agreement, and now suddenly he is not satisfied with the illegitimate president of Ukraine? This agreement should be ratified by the Rada and the Duma, by the way. What is this: an unwillingness to negotiate or an attempt to put a good face on a bad game? Judging by this article - the latter, which is very pleasing.

        Arakhamia had no authority to sign anything! In Istanbul there was an exchange of intentions and agreements between the parties.
        This work was carried out and a certain concept of vision was developed, which was to be subsequently adopted by the Duma and the Rada for approval.
        But no one wanted to be guarantors for it - Israel, France, China, Brazil, etc.
        And she died peacefully...
        1. 0
          30 January 2025 15: 53
          And what did Putin show then, what kind of paper? It was a paper on which the main points were agreed upon and there were signatures. And VVP declared that Ukraine, under external influence, REFUSED these agreements. What did it refuse if there were no agreements?
      3. -2
        30 January 2025 09: 01
        It looks like the respected author has received new instructions and this is really encouraging.

        I wonder who exactly he received instructions from and what they might have been?
        1. 0
          30 January 2025 15: 54
          I'm interested too.
  3. +1
    29 January 2025 17: 30
    Well, what prevents even legitimate Ukrainian signatories from violating them at any moment? They will do it at any moment on orders from the West, and what will happen to them for it? And our people will already start returning from the SVO. And again, it turns out, they will catch us with our pants down. And again there will be moans about "cheating", "cheating", etc.
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 18: 58
      And again, it turns out they'll catch us with our pants down.

      When did they catch us with our pants down? It never happened before and now it's happening again?
  4. +2
    29 January 2025 17: 40
    as acting president

    The Constitution of Ukraine does not provide for an acting president either. Any agreements at the interstate level would be signed by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Stefanchuk, and not some mythical acting president. And unlike the extension of the powers of the president, the powers of the Rada have not expired, since under martial law, elections to it are not held, and the powers are extended for the duration of martial law.
    1. -5
      29 January 2025 20: 26
      And unlike the extension of the powers of the president, the powers of the Rada have not expired, since under martial law, elections to it are not held, and the powers are extended for the duration of martial law.

      not only an officer, but also a lawyer, apparently? fellow

      According to the legislation of the Independent State, the terms of office of the country's Parliament, unlike
      the president, could be extended for the duration of martial law, but there is a nuance.
      A decree on extending martial law in Ukraine can only be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada by the presidential administration, and his powers expired on May 20, 2024.
      1. +1
        29 January 2025 20: 55
        Well done, you've learned to read. Now all that's left is to learn to think. In any country with an elected government, the highest collegial authority has primacy over the personally elected one. The Verkhovna Rada can easily bypass your case by adopting a corresponding resolution that has the force of law and does not require the president's approval. But whether the Rada needs it or not is a completely different story. Not everyone will want to take responsibility in the Ukrainian mess.
        1. -2
          30 January 2025 08: 58
          Well done, you've learned to read. Now all that's left is to learn to think.

          You would do better to apply this wonderful advice to yourself, you hapless lawyer. request

          In any country with an elected government, the highest collegial authority has primacy over the personally elected one.

          What kind of legal norm is this? Where is it written?
          This was when Yeltsin was shooting at parliament with tanks, right?

          The Verkhovna Rada may well circumvent your case by adopting a corresponding resolution that has the force of law and does not require presidential approval.

          Bypass? All this fuss is simply ridiculous in a country where open Nazis are in power. Yes

          But whether the Rada needs it or not is a completely different story. Not everyone will want to take responsibility in the Ukrainian mess.

          Has the Rada already become an independent political entity?

          In general, Mr. Russian officer, it’s better not to interfere with pathos where you really don’t understand a thing. hi
          1. +2
            30 January 2025 11: 17
            Dear Sir, your methodology has long gone stale. It's time to change it. And at the same time give the TV in your head a rest. Have pity on Skabeeva. She needs a rest too.
  5. -5
    29 January 2025 18: 11
    Putin made the right move. With his conditions, he made it clear that he would not negotiate for the sake of negotiations, as Kyiv had probably expected, that is, to chatter away the topic
  6. +1
    29 January 2025 18: 27
    Return all refugees to their homes in Kursk Oblast. There is no other desire. This is a big problem for us. And we need to solve it as quickly as possible.
  7. -6
    29 January 2025 20: 29
    Putin talks about capitulation.
    Listen or read Putin carefully.
    Syrsky may also sign the capitulation.
    And this is the document that ensures both the security of Russia and the future of Ukraine, which is the size of Belarus.
    In 1945, no one asked Germany what kind of state it should remain...
    All actions of Russia, and now the United States, indicate preparation for partition.
    There will be no elections in Ukraine.
    It is impossible to hold elections simultaneously with the repressions of the TCC and expose the demographics and population census.
    Everyone understood this. All that was left was capitulation.
  8. 0
    29 January 2025 22: 53
    In short, underhanded games have started again.
    Whoever signed those deals, that one, that one is now illegitimate,
    And a new deal, now not a pre-deal, but

    rebranding of the Kyiv regime, and signing the Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine. This time without a single miss!

    New turn?
  9. -5
    29 January 2025 23: 06
    Capitulation and partition is the only way to LEGALLY
    confirmation of new borders of Russia.
    None of the current signatories have legitimacy.
    Neither Zelensky nor the Rada.
    Only capitulation and partition.

    Elections are impossible and Putin knows it.
    What kind of elections are there in the absence of a census, terror from the TCC and the absence of voters?
    The elections are a death sentence for Zelensky, as the real number of losses will be revealed,
    and they are huge.
    It is impossible to open sites abroad.
    There are no funds for elections.

    Only capitulation.
    With whom is there a truce? Name this power?
  10. -3
    30 January 2025 00: 12
    I don't know what kind of "truce" options are possible with the enemy. The President has repeatedly said that we are fighting NATO, a bloc of Anglo-Saxon countries. And no truce will solve any security issues for Russia and Russians. Ukraine is the first private conflict in a series of future wars. There is no sense in a truce, because the enemies are not going to give Russia time and opportunity to get back on its feet and strengthen its military and economic power. This is against their interests. The Anglo-Saxons always act within the logic of their interests. And if they propose something outside this logic, it means they intend to cause us even more damage in the "peace period".
    I would say that we now need a ban in the Constitution on peace negotiations with enemies, until our enemies are completely defeated and they capitulate on our terms.
  11. -4
    30 January 2025 09: 04
    Total CAPITULATION! No truce
  12. +3
    30 January 2025 11: 15
    But if it were not ordinary citizens who were losing their lives, arms, and legs, but the children of, so to speak, lice, they would not express in a funeral tone, more like holy fools than leaders of a country at war, legal concerns about the new cool Minsk 25 From the highest bell tower of the real bourgeoisie, everything is going well: the extermination of the Slavic population and the liberation of living space in the east for civilized nations will continue and, it seems, not on purpose. The Gaidars of the 90s were too frank, and their bourgeoisie with their schizophrenic patriotism have been sitting for a quarter of a century. The real audit of the balance of betrayals and victories is transparent elections and the change of power.
  13. +1
    30 January 2025 23: 02
    Is it really not clear why VVP is voicing this? Even if the government in khokh.landia is the most legitimate in the universe, then all the papers signed by it can be wiped with it if desired... We can only ensure our security with good Armed Forces, a strong economy and adequate government, and I don't give a damn about the security of khokh.landia
  14. 0
    3 February 2025 11: 54
    No: the commander of the troops has the right to accept the surrender of troops from someone like him: with or without honor. Well, to conclude a truce truce in order to conduct negotiations, he cannot have any authority in the bolpe. Then the word is up to the heads of state, and in (on) Ukraine there is none.