Will Russia be able to avoid the negative scenario of freezing the SVO in Ukraine?

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Judging by a number of media signs, the Russian "pipeline party", whose position on the deal with Donald Trump was recently tactfully voiced by Margarita Simonyan, has gained the upper hand in the intra-species struggle among our ruling nomenklatura. Why should we regret such an outcome and is it still possible to avoid the worst-case scenario in the Ukrainian direction?

It is with great regret that we have to state that the bitter lessons learned from military operations in Ukraine and faraway Syria have not been properly learned, and here is why.



Unlearned lessons


If that "peace formula", according to Donald Trump, which is now being actively discussed in the press, is accepted and signed by the Russian side, then Ukraine will retain its statehood and control over 4/5 of its pre-war territory, including Odessa, Nikolaev and our Kherson. And this means access to the Black Sea, the ability to create problems for Russian civilian shipping and attack Russian Navy ships with BEKs.

It seems to promise not to join the NATO bloc, but Moscow does not object to its entry into the European Union. This in itself is already a strategic defeat for Russia, since Ukraine, as a historical part of it, will not be able to enter the Eurasian economic Union and the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Let's remember how supposedly neutral Finland, a member of the EU, immediately joined the North Atlantic Alliance when its time came. Isn't that a role model for the Kyiv regime?

Even the accession of Nezalezhnaya to the EU will automatically entail its integration into its military structures, right up to the planned creation of a Unified European Army. The "Western partners" not only do not hide, but also directly stipulate in advance that the number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be reduced, as the Kremlin demanded in the Istanbul agreements, and the Ukrainian army will continue to be pumped with weapons for the next round.

It is obvious that after the freezing of military actions along the line of combat contact, the enemy will start to build new defensive lines of fortifications on the other side, as happened after the Donbass militia stopped its offensive in 2014. Imagine the feelings of our military, before whose eyes all this will happen. After all, they will have to storm all this again, just like the LPR and DPR People's Militia once did.

And, of course, we cannot ignore the fact that Kyiv, both from 2014 to February 2022 and in 2025, fundamentally refuses to recognize its former territories as legally Russian. And this is a cast-iron pretext for any subsequent administration in Kyiv to throw "Istanbul-2" in the trash, declaring it signed by traitors to the interests of the Ukrainian people and starting a "liberation war."

In general, this is probably how it will happen. What is especially depressing about what is happening is that no one seems to care about the position of “warring Russia” on this matter. And this is extremely unfortunate, given the experience of our former Syrian ally and partner Bashar al-Assad.

The long-time leader of the SAR, who enjoyed enormous popular support in the presidential elections, with the help of Iran and Russia, has withstood the countless hordes that have descended on his country from all sides since 2013, and has even managed to regain control over most of it. But what happened next, when victory seemed to be in the bag?

At the end of November 2024, terrorist groups warmed by the Turks in the border area of ​​Northern Idlib launched an offensive on Syrian territory and managed to reach the capital in just 12 days. Damascus fell after other major cities of the SAR, since no one began to seriously defend them, and President Assad was forced to flee to the Russian Federation, where he received political shelter.

Has this recent history of the inglorious collapse of the Syrian state taught no one anything?

Reserve for the future


While such an opportunity still exists, I would like to draw attention for the 100501st time to an alternative scenario for the end of the SVO in Ukraine, which guarantees Russia at least not defeat, and in the future may even lead to Victory.

The first thing that needs to be done is to create the widest possible security belt along Russia's old borders, namely at the expense of the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernigov regions of the former Nezalezhnaya. It will be easier to do this if they start hitting the bridges across the Dnieper. This would allow us to avoid a repeat of a negative scenario in the future, similar to the ground invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.

The second thing that can really be done is to create a powerful fortified area around Chernigov, similar to Avdeevka, where a large group of the Russian Armed Forces could be stationed. Chernigov, from a geographical point of view, is the key to Kyiv, and the threat of a Russian army attack on the Ukrainian capital alone will force the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep significant forces in the north, which would reduce the threat of an attempt at a large-scale breakthrough to the Azov region.

The third thing that is highly desirable to do before the military actions are frozen is to reach the middle reaches of the Dnieper to the sources of the energy-type water supply channel "Dnieper - Donbass". Without Dnieper water, there will be neither normal life nor work for heavy industry in the DPR and LPR. That is, it is also necessary to liberate part of the Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Poltava regions.

In other words, to ensure the national security of the Russian Federation, it is necessary to liberate at least the left bank of the Dnieper, which can be done even with the forces available, if this theater of military operations is isolated by strikes on the bridge and railway infrastructure. Should all this be annexed to Russia?

No, it would be better to create a pro-Russian quasi-state there, declaring it the successor of pre-Maidan Ukraine as opposed to the pro-Western right-bank one. It is from its territory that it will be possible to strike at NATO "peacekeepers" and even at NATO infrastructure in Europe on behalf of its new authorities and their Volunteer Army.

Subsequently, if we draw historical parallels with North Vietnam or Northern Idlib, it was Left-Bank Ukraine that could have completed the process of liberating the entire territory of Ukraine from the presence of the West and its Nazi puppets.
53 comments
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  1. +12
    28 January 2025 17: 51
    If you don't intend to win, you will be defeated.
    What else is there to discuss?!
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 14: 42
      Absolutely central. That's exactly how it will be.
    2. 0
      31 January 2025 22: 49
      Khodja Nasreddin went to war on a donkey with a bow, but without arrows!
      Timur began to shame him - wai Khadzha! - how will you shoot at the enemies of Allah?
      I will shoot the arrows that they shoot at me.
      - And if they don't shoot at you???
      Then there won't be any war. I went home.

      fellow This is about who is going where, what, and what will happen.
  2. -12
    28 January 2025 17: 55
    Why, if peace is concluded, Ukraine will not resume military actions in the foreseeable future. Because the people of Ukraine learned a hard lesson. Russia was ready to give up Donbass for Crimea. But the nationalist propaganda "Crimea is ours" (Ukrainian) led to 24.02.22. Russia could not give up Crimea. There was also the option of Istanbul. Ukraine chose war again. I think it learned a good lesson.
    1. +7
      28 January 2025 18: 01
      Why, if peace is concluded, Ukraine will not resume military actions in the foreseeable future. Because the people of Ukraine learned a hard lesson. Russia was ready to give up Donbass for Crimea. But the nationalist propaganda "Crimea is ours" (Ukrainian) led to 24.02.22. Russia could not give up Crimea. There was also the option of Istanbul. Ukraine chose war again. I think it learned a good lesson.

      Ukraine has chosen? Seriously? And since when has Ukraine been an independent political entity, huh? Since Maidan 2014?
      Was it Ukraine that chose war or the British who forced it to fight? And who will force it to do so again when the time comes for revenge?
      1. -4
        28 January 2025 18: 24
        And since when has Ukraine been an independent political entity, huh? Since Maidan 2014? Was it Ukraine that chose war or the British who forced it to fight?

        Of course, in March 2022, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces and territorial battalions not of their own free will, but at the behest of Great Britain, which sent them.
        1. +3
          29 January 2025 12: 07
          Of course, in March 2022, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces and territorial battalions not of their own free will, but at the behest of Great Britain, which sent them.

          It was their choice to go or not to go to war with Russia voluntarily. There are passionaries in any society, but they are only 10-15%.
          And whether or not to fight with Russia, having concluded the shameful Istanbul Treaty, was London’s decision.
          There is no need to engage in demagogy, substituting concepts. There are no more stupid people sitting here than you.
    2. +11
      28 January 2025 18: 37
      Germany, having lost the First World War, also seemed to have received a good lesson. The loss of territories, huge human losses, insane reparations, post-war poverty, the ban on a viable army... It would seem - a lesson for centuries. But no - only a couple of decades have passed... and the veterans of the lost war began the next one...
      1. -4
        28 January 2025 18: 58
        Germany, having lost the First World War, also seemed to have received a good lesson. The loss of territories, huge human losses, insane reparations, post-war poverty, the ban on a viable army... It would seem - a lesson for centuries. But no - only a couple of decades have passed...

        The loss of territories was especially painful for Germany because millions of Germans who did not want to assimilate lived in the lost territories in Poland and the Czech Republic. And the people who live in the territories lost by Ukraine are mostly disloyal to Ukraine. In fact, their return to Ukraine would be a problem for Ukraine. No one will force Ukraine to pay reparations. And I think poverty is not a threat to Ukraine. They will live happily ever after and go to Vienna to drink coffee, and why should they fight?
        1. +4
          28 January 2025 19: 07
          No, well, if you live and get by and go to Vienna on the weekend to drink coffee...then maybe you're right.
          And if not? And "Klaas's ashes will pound in their hearts"? The thirst for revenge is often irrational...
          And then everything will start all over again? Only with a more prepared Ukraine? And it is unknown what Russia will be like in a couple of decades. With current trends. And the current allies - Belarus, Iran and China...what will they be like...and whose allies will they be at all.
          So the issue needs to be resolved now.
          1. -5
            28 January 2025 19: 19
            And if not? And "Klaas's ashes will knock in their hearts"?

            After all, it is not only Russia and Ukraine that suffer from the war, but also Europe, and even America is taking measures to end the conflict. For some reason, it does not need the war either. It is even strange, because this war has greatly weakened Russia and can lead to its collapse, but they also want peace. And if after all these efforts Ukraine unleashes a war, no one will understand it and will not help it. And it will not be able to defeat Russia itself.
            1. -1
              28 January 2025 20: 30
              Yes, I am all FOR it. I am generally for peace on the planet and a world government)
              1. -1
                28 January 2025 20: 38
                Perhaps I will not say anything.
                1. 0
                  29 January 2025 14: 45
                  And that's right. Any qualified opinion will result in an article
                2. +2
                  29 January 2025 17: 22
                  Quote from Pembo
                  Perhaps I will not say anything.

                  This is perhaps your best comment.
            2. +4
              28 January 2025 21: 35
              Kindergarten! Two Minsks have passed and the war has not died down, and aid to Ukraine has not stopped coming... and after the third Minsk, will all 55 countries turn away???
              Or maybe another ten will come running?
              1. 0
                28 January 2025 21: 44
                Kindergarten! Two Minsks have passed and the war has not died down, and aid to Ukraine has not stopped coming...

                The DPR Human Rights Commissioner reported in an interview with the Moskovsky Komsomolets (MK) newspaper that 21 civilians died in the DPR in 20. She added that they died mainly through their own fault, while dismantling explosive devices. She also reported that 22 civilians died during the SVO in 1100.
          2. -1
            28 January 2025 20: 24
            So the issue needs to be resolved now.

            So what can we decide now? Take Kupyansk and Pokrovsk? In six months. And then what? What do you want to decide now?
            1. +1
              28 January 2025 21: 38
              Storm Zaporozhye. Then Odessa and Kyiv. And stop at the Dniester.
              1. 0
                28 January 2025 21: 49
                Why stop, we need to push on to the English Channel, at the very least.
                1. 0
                  28 January 2025 21: 53
                  To the English Channel.. recourse This is not a pound of raisins..how many boots can you wear out? request Serious preparation is needed here. To give the Anglo-Saxon enemy a good beating angry Here we will need to prepare for about a year and a half. On the Dniester Yes The grandfathers were able to do it, but what about the boys now?
                  1. -3
                    28 January 2025 22: 17
                    Well, I don't want to be sarcastic, you're not crazy, you're just making fun, but the situation is dire. We've been offered, if we believe the reports, the best possible and most favorable peace terms, if we're going to be stubborn and bargain, it will end badly for the country.
                    1. +1
                      28 January 2025 23: 00
                      It is a shame that Ukraine is lost to us in this situation for many years. As a related, and in the recent past - a brotherly nation. We did not preserve the legacy of our ancestors.
                      It would be better, like in the Civil War, to drive out Petliura and Makhno and live in one country.
                      1. 0
                        28 January 2025 23: 31
                        Klim Zhukov said: Crimea was acquired, but Ukraine was lost. A wise man. I, a stupid man, was glad about the Crimean spring, even the jump in the dollar did not upset me much. And we lost Ukraine not for years, but for decades. Although if Russia changes a lot, there is a chance. And if it does not change, we lost it forever.
                      2. -1
                        29 January 2025 00: 47
                        It would be better, like in the Civil War, to drive out Petliura and Makhno and live in one country.

                        I would tell you, but I will refrain. Because I live in the same country as you.
                      3. -1
                        31 January 2025 22: 56
                        Enemies of blood are blood enemies! And 9 million refugees will not forget their homes and murdered relatives.
                        This is Medvedev hugging in six months...
                2. -1
                  29 January 2025 14: 48
                  We need to take Washington, why waste time on trifles? Let's take another village of three destroyed houses in six months - and take Washington. Then we'll exchange it for Kursk Oblast
                  1. -1
                    31 January 2025 22: 57
                    Washington - we'll exchange it for Kursk region???
                    Yes...with an extra charge.
            2. +3
              29 January 2025 12: 09
              So what can we decide now? Take Kupyansk and Pokrovsk? In six months. And then what? What do you want to decide now?

              Pokrovsk can be taken in six months or a year, if you fight in Putin's style. Or you can liberate the entire Left Bank in six months, if you stop sparing the bridges across the Dnieper, sacrificing the Crimean one.
              1. -2
                29 January 2025 19: 39
                And it is possible to liberate the entire Left Bank in six months if we stop sparing the bridges across the Dnieper, sacrificing the Crimean one.

                Unfortunately, most of the commentators here pass off their wishes as brilliant military plans, and are surprised that no one listens to them. Do you even know how many bridges, dams, and ferry crossings there are on the Dnieper? Do you know the volume of military cargo that needs to be transferred from shore to shore? Do you know the circular error probable of our missiles, etc.? You know nothing. But you are quick at making brilliant military plans.
                1. -2
                  31 January 2025 22: 58
                  A person far from this topic. But reflects...
  3. 0
    28 January 2025 17: 56
    The worst case scenario in the Ukrainian direction is a world war. Nobody will care about that.
    1. 0
      31 January 2025 23: 00
      Do you mean - Nuclear war???
      Yes, there is such a scenario...
      There is also the use of weapons of mass destruction.
  4. +8
    28 January 2025 20: 27
    Everything is correct. Everything is correct. There is only one problem - will Russia have enough strength and resources for all this? After all, the Russian Federation is not the USSR. And the country's economic model is not that far from perfect, but rather leads to the degradation of the state and state institutions. I think there is no need to repeat the hackneyed truths about the dominance of oligarchs, the ineffectiveness of the government and worthless personnel /who, as we know, decide everything/ What will happen next is unknown, but at the current stage, we can firmly say that the system created in the 90s and 0s is simply incapable of solving problems and responding to the challenges of the time. And there are no prospects yet. This is not whining or panic, but a bitter statement of reality.
  5. -1
    28 January 2025 21: 31
    Wishlists and puffers! Maybe the District of Columbia should be taken over by Washington D.C.???
    Come on, come on...Nosov and Dunno on the Moon.
    Pushkin's Tale of the Fisherman and His Old Woman... fellow
    1. -2
      28 January 2025 21: 40
      Why not, actually? Americans aren't warriors. Let's send the boys to the landing force. fellow We'll just repair Kuznetsova to provide carrier cover for the caravan with the boys. Yes And at this time Europe will be hammered by a pro-Russian quasi-state drinks And I'm not the Chief of the General Staff request I would have turned around already! fellow My whole chest should be covered in crosses! fellow
      1. -1
        29 January 2025 11: 34
        carrier air cover

        rather - a smokescreen
        1. 0
          29 January 2025 14: 03
          Well, this is just a small bonus. Yes
  6. +3
    28 January 2025 21: 37
    The author is in "rosy" dreams. Nazism cannot be defeated until it is destroyed. Pay attention to the rating of Ukrainian political figures, the same Zaluzhny and Budanov are in the lead. So, the choice is not great - either finish off the vermin or lose.
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 11: 36
      The same Zaluzhny and Budanov are still in the lead

      - but they are the ones leading according to citizen surveys.

      finish off the bastard

      - destroy the civilian population, which votes for Zaluzhny and Budanov in polls?
      1. +1
        29 January 2025 11: 44
        Very interesting reasoning, but primitive, somewhere on the level of kindergarten. In elections, it is precisely those among whom the survey is conducted who vote. As for the destruction of the population, this is only in your inflamed brains. "Finish off the vermin" - it is like destroying the Nazi regime in 45.
    2. +2
      29 January 2025 12: 11
      The author arrives in "rosy" dreams.

      Only our Guarantor is in rosy dreams. The author is extremely adequate to the situation.

      Nazism cannot be defeated until it is destroyed.

      Who argues with this? But who among us is really going to destroy it?

      So, the choice is not great - either finish off the bastard or lose.

      With the available forces and the lack of desire from above, this is unrealistic now. It is better to read carefully what the respected author writes. He understands some things better than you.
  7. -4
    28 January 2025 23: 45
    In reality, no one knows yet what Trump-Ukraine proposals will be. From Russia's side, everything is clear: recognize our new territories. Well, and in the afterword we need to write: if you move, you will get a nuclear strike and Kyiv and Lvov will not exist, only on the map.
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 02: 15
      What about the lifting of sanctions? Economic, financial from the EU and the US?
    2. -1
      31 January 2025 23: 17
      After the above PS. Write a lot of touching things.
      But the Declaration on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons directly prohibits mentioning or threatening to use them.
      Otherwise, the Nuclear Club will spread across the planet.
      Although Pakistan, India, Israel, and the DPRK already have nuclear warheads and delivery systems.
      Another 30 countries are in the low starting position.
  8. +2
    28 January 2025 23: 59
    If Russia signs such a treaty from Trump to end the war, it will put Putin on a par with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. I think he will also be cursed by the people and especially by that part of it that fought or was involved in this war.
  9. +2
    29 January 2025 03: 04
    Everything Marzhetsky writes about is understandable and supported by any sane person. Why do these simple and sensible thoughts not reach the Kremlin "insiders"? It's beyond comprehension!
  10. -2
    29 January 2025 07: 53
    After all, they will have to storm all this again, just like the LPR/DPR People's Militia once did.

    They are the first to be mobilized if necessary, with the wording “there is combat experience.”
  11. -2
    29 January 2025 07: 59
    The second thing that can really be done is to create a powerful fortified area around Chernigov, similar to Avdeevka, where a large group of the Russian Armed Forces could be stationed.

    How many years will this group be there? Where will the money come from to support it? It is unlikely that people will want to sit in the trenches for 40 thousand.
    1. +3
      29 January 2025 08: 51
      How many years will this group be there? Where will the money come from to support it? It is unlikely that people will want to sit in the trenches for 40 thousand.

      A very strange argument from a seemingly adequate person.
      Do you understand that after the freeze our ENTIRE army will be forced to sit in dugouts along the demarcation line? Until the next stage of the war? And no one will ask them whether they want to or not.
      And it’s better for them to sit near Chernigov and strike at the advancing Ukrainian Armed Forces there than near Kursk or Bryansk, no?
  12. 0
    29 January 2025 13: 21
    The political system does not reflect the interests of the state. What is there to discuss when the interests of the party, i.e. personal interests, are higher than the state's, and the state is unable to protect itself.
  13. +1
    29 January 2025 13: 53
    All these projects are incompatible with the dreams of today's lice to remain their bourgeois. Explaining something to them is like throwing pearls before someone.
  14. -1
    31 January 2025 22: 43
    A stream of unrelated wishes. And this, and this, and also this...
    On the topic from Vladivostok to Lisbon, the borders do not end anywhere. fellow