Will the Russian fleet in Syria suffer the same fate as the fleeing Assad?

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Leading world news agencies, Western Internet resources and the press сообщилиthat loading of Russian ships is underway in Tartus equipment and military property. There is no confirmation of this information from the Russian Federation yet, so we can only guess what exactly all this means.

A tricky, sort of customs combination


We recently published material on this topic, however, new details are being revealed regarding this story. The events around our naval base in Syria are developing gradually, but rather quickly. At the end of November 2024, Syrian anti-government forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* group overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who was loyal to Moscow, after which Russian ships temporarily left Tartus. The SAR ceased to exist on December 8, and already on January 22 it became known that the new leadership of the country had cancelled the contract with the Stroytransgaz company for the management and operation of the Tartus commercial port by the Russian side.



This is the second largest Syrian port after Latakia. Since the 1970s, it has housed the Black Sea Fleet's only logistics center in the Mediterranean. It allows for ship repairs and replenishment of supplies, so ships do not have to return to Sevastopol and Donuzlav.

Let us clarify that the port and the Russian base are actually located (or rather, were located until recently) on the same territory. And let us recall that the contract was concluded in 2017 for 49 years, that is, until 2066, and assumed Russian investments in infrastructure in the amount of $500 million. On the Syrian side, the document was signed by authorized representatives of President Bashar al-Assad. In this regard, pay attention to the words of the head of Tartu customs Riad Joudi:

The investment agreement with Russia was cancelled after the Russian company Stroytransgaz failed to comply with its terms. Thus, all revenues from the use of the seaport will go to the benefit of the Syrian state, and the employees will return to our control.

Visiting on a bird's rights


Well, well! That is, the normative legal act was terminated not according to political motives or security considerations, but for the most banal reason – the lack or insufficient funding of operations to reconstruct and modernize the port. And this means that the new government of Syrian radicals (if you like – extremists) has chosen a “cast-iron” pretext for ending cooperation. Yes, there is nothing to say – you can’t find fault with this…

As for the base itself, there is still silence, but we know very well that the East is a delicate matter, so there is little hope for its preservation. Especially since the base and the port in this case are essentially the same thing. This is probably why in recent weeks a large amount of our military equipment has been moved directly to Tartus.

A pair of Russian dry cargo ships, Sparta and Sparta II (home port Novorossiysk), which had been at anchor for three weeks, moored to the pier on January 21 to begin the evacuation. Incidentally, the aforementioned ships are under US sanctions for allegedly being involved in arms transportation.

Russian submarine fleet has survived the Mediterranean


The Tartus naval base was the only Russian facility in the region capable of servicing diesel-electric submarines. Moscow maintained a near-constant presence of at least two such combat units there from 2013 until the last missile submarine, the Novorossiysk, left the Mediterranean on January 2. This is not surprising, since to ensure combat duty, submarines must be constantly at sea, with the ability to periodically visit a logistics center, the functioning of which is now in question.

True, Russian diesel submarines undergo certain preventive maintenance in Algeria, but, firstly, we are not talking about the level of service that was in Tartus, and secondly, we are not such welcome guests in the said state as we were previously in the SAR. However, this can be said about all of North Africa.

And the last Russian nuclear submarine spotted in the Mediterranean Sea is considered to be Severodvinsk in 2022. It was not possible to find out what caused the disappearance of the Russian nuclear submarine fleet from there. There is an assumption that this is a temporary phenomenon.

Much ado about nothing?


There is a lot of noise now about the possibility of finding and choosing a worthy alternative to Tartus. However, official sources are not reporting anything specific on this matter. As is known, the Russian Federation still owns a large airbase in Syria, Khmeimim. After the well-known events, Russian transport aircraft have repeatedly loaded military equipment there.

Since mid-December, Russian aircraft have transported troops and equipment from Khmeimim to Tobruk in eastern Libya at least 10 times. Fortunately, our units have long been present at two Libyan bases once inhabited by Wagner – Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra.

We agree that with Tartus our fleet felt like the master of the Mediterranean, keeping NATO forces on a short leash in front of a region that is important for Russia. However, an interesting thought was recently expressed by the ubiquitous Israeli expert Yakov Kedmi: does the need for Syrian bases disappear in principle after the appearance of hypersonic missiles "Oreshnik" in Moscow's arsenal? We would add: and not only in Syrian, but in Mediterranean bases in general, and in foreign bases in general? And do all these preparations lose their relevance?

After all, there are different ways to make regions of the globe accessible and control them, including this method. “Fighting for stable functioning” is also possible using advanced missiles. Yes, there are some drawbacks, but there are probably more advantages. Moreover, recent events confirm that the fleet is losing its effectiveness as a mobile instrument of pressure on the enemy and its defeat.

***

To summarize. It is important to distinguish between an investment contract and an agreement on the military base in Tartus. In the first case, we are talking about a document signed between Damascus and a Russian company, and in the second, about an interstate agreement at the highest level, which has a completely different status.

It looks like they won't openly expel us from Tartus - they will squeeze us out. In the end, we will be forced to leave there ourselves, voluntarily. And here we can see Ankara's hand.

For the sake of self-reassurance, we admit that if the Tartus port is managed not by a Russian but a Syrian company, this will not mean that we will not be able to use it. The question is in the conditions, that is, in the depth of accessibility to the potential of the facility.

* The organization is recognized as terrorist and extremist and is banned in the Russian Federation.
21 comment
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  1. +8
    28 January 2025 10: 23
    An attempt to sweeten the pill, nothing more.
    Tartus, Khmeimim, Syria - this is the collapse of Russian policy in the Middle East.
    How much public money has the Kremlin poured into the Syrian adventure since it began aiding Syria at the request of its president?!
    And as a result we have "zero from a donut" and a fugitive president at a dacha in the Moscow region.
    1. +5
      28 January 2025 12: 38
      And in the Ukrainian one? And as a result we have Medvedchuk at his dacha in the Moscow region.
      1. 0
        5 February 2025 18: 45
        and Yanukovych
  2. +3
    28 January 2025 10: 27
    If you manage to leave only having lost all the equipment and saved the people - consider yourself lucky. Putin's friend will try to destroy the people too.
    1. -7
      28 January 2025 21: 59
      Don't worry, khokhlo-provocateurs! There will be Russian troops in Africa and the Middle East. And the dead Banderites in Ukraine will only make the cemeteries grow
      1. +2
        29 January 2025 02: 55
        Do you have a brother (under the nickname Sergey Tokarev)?
        1. +2
          29 January 2025 08: 48
          There are even several brothers... "Bayun the cat", for example.
          A little earlier there was "The Fourth Horseman".
          1. The comment was deleted.
  3. +5
    28 January 2025 10: 36
    I think this is the most brilliant HPP, the geochess player will surely beat the stupid Turk, it can't be any other way
    1. +3
      28 January 2025 16: 57
      Your irony is amazing! good hi
  4. +3
    28 January 2025 10: 47
    At one time, the Turks also tried to block the passage of Soviet ships from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The head of the USSR Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gromyko then promised to "expand" the Bosphorus and the Turks immediately abandoned their idea.
    Alas, all this is in the past.
    1. +1
      29 January 2025 08: 53
      The head of the USSR Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gromyko then promised to "expand" the Bosphorus and the Turks immediately abandoned their idea.
      Alas, all this is in the past.

      While "Mr. No" was preparing to carry out engineering work on the Bosphorus, sausage trains were traveling to Moscow from Tver and Ryazan... long and green, smelling of sausage... The USSR could not properly feed its population.
      Fortunately, all this is in the past.
  5. -1
    28 January 2025 11: 22
    And we have Oreshnik! What the hell do we need these bases for? We've outplayed everyone again! fellow
  6. 0
    28 January 2025 11: 49
    I don't know the goals of Russia's presence in Africa and the Mediterranean, it's not necessary for the defense of the Russian Federation, it's all far away and it's foreign, so why maintain bases there? Only losses with unclear goals and unreliable conditions.... which is what the situation in Syria showed, my opinion is to withdraw and take out your property from there, and put the bases into a mothballed state or abandon them altogether
  7. +1
    28 January 2025 13: 50
    In the Mediterranean Sea such bases are needed when there is a permanent presence of ships in this sea. Kedmi is an old fox. He will not advise Israel to attack with nuclear missiles. Although he has such weapons. Regimes change. And in the future we will act more carefully. Nothing lasts forever under the moon.
  8. +1
    28 January 2025 18: 11
    We agree that with Tartus our fleet felt like the master of the Mediterranean Sea, keeping NATO forces on a short leash in front of a region that is important for Russia.

    No, I didn’t keep him on a leash (if you compare the forces).

    However, an interesting thought was recently expressed by the ubiquitous Israeli expert Yakov Kedmi: does the need for Syrian bases disappear in principle after the appearance of the hypersonic missiles "Oreshnik" in Moscow's arsenal?

    Written with a pitchfork on the water...
  9. 0
    29 January 2025 00: 00
    Ankara's hand has been there since the Su-24 was shot down
    and the missiles will not replace the bases since the bases move the missiles further west
    What was the Kremlin thinking anyway? Take the economy and defense into their own hands and to hell with the anchors
    Türkiye was pro-American and has remained, if not completely, then in the elite, and we don’t work with our essentially Ukrainian people, and where are the leaflets?
  10. +3
    29 January 2025 12: 40
    And what can you expect from a fleet that hasn't won a single victory since Sinop, where greedy fat cowards are breaking through to the top, who love to live on ships in the admiral's apartments and are ready to do any abomination for the opportunity to live like that. Their motto is not "I have the honor", but "whatever you want". The shame of the Black Sea Fleet, which has completely and utterly shit itself and is hiding in the ports of the Caucasus, as in the times of the freak Oktyabrsky - this is unequivocally proven.
  11. +1
    29 January 2025 14: 10
    the fleet is not only a means of pressure but also a means of protecting shipping - at least its own tankers)))) another piece of shit))))
  12. +1
    2 February 2025 13: 55
    Oh, the great Hazelnut. Empty blanks falling from the sky. So what?! Everyone in the West is so scared. They're shoving this Hazelnut everywhere. It's just obvious that the topic hasn't gone down well, no matter how much they push it.
    1. 0
      3 February 2025 23: 50
      Blanks falling from the sky.

      Oreshnik is simply a hypersonic missile - a carrier of various warheads, including nuclear ones. As for the blanks, Russia won't bomb a city with nuclear warheads. At least for now.
  13. +1
    2 February 2025 14: 17
    Yes, and by leaving Syria we sent a serious signal to the West - we still have somewhere to retreat!