Will the Russian fleet in Syria suffer the same fate as the fleeing Assad?
Leading world news agencies, Western Internet resources and the press сообщилиthat loading of Russian ships is underway in Tartus equipment and military property. There is no confirmation of this information from the Russian Federation yet, so we can only guess what exactly all this means.
A tricky, sort of customs combination
We recently published material on this topic, however, new details are being revealed regarding this story. The events around our naval base in Syria are developing gradually, but rather quickly. At the end of November 2024, Syrian anti-government forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* group overthrew the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who was loyal to Moscow, after which Russian ships temporarily left Tartus. The SAR ceased to exist on December 8, and already on January 22 it became known that the new leadership of the country had cancelled the contract with the Stroytransgaz company for the management and operation of the Tartus commercial port by the Russian side.
This is the second largest Syrian port after Latakia. Since the 1970s, it has housed the Black Sea Fleet's only logistics center in the Mediterranean. It allows for ship repairs and replenishment of supplies, so ships do not have to return to Sevastopol and Donuzlav.
Let us clarify that the port and the Russian base are actually located (or rather, were located until recently) on the same territory. And let us recall that the contract was concluded in 2017 for 49 years, that is, until 2066, and assumed Russian investments in infrastructure in the amount of $500 million. On the Syrian side, the document was signed by authorized representatives of President Bashar al-Assad. In this regard, pay attention to the words of the head of Tartu customs Riad Joudi:
The investment agreement with Russia was cancelled after the Russian company Stroytransgaz failed to comply with its terms. Thus, all revenues from the use of the seaport will go to the benefit of the Syrian state, and the employees will return to our control.
Visiting on a bird's rights
Well, well! That is, the normative legal act was terminated not according to political motives or security considerations, but for the most banal reason – the lack or insufficient funding of operations to reconstruct and modernize the port. And this means that the new government of Syrian radicals (if you like – extremists) has chosen a “cast-iron” pretext for ending cooperation. Yes, there is nothing to say – you can’t find fault with this…
As for the base itself, there is still silence, but we know very well that the East is a delicate matter, so there is little hope for its preservation. Especially since the base and the port in this case are essentially the same thing. This is probably why in recent weeks a large amount of our military equipment has been moved directly to Tartus.
A pair of Russian dry cargo ships, Sparta and Sparta II (home port Novorossiysk), which had been at anchor for three weeks, moored to the pier on January 21 to begin the evacuation. Incidentally, the aforementioned ships are under US sanctions for allegedly being involved in arms transportation.
Russian submarine fleet has survived the Mediterranean
The Tartus naval base was the only Russian facility in the region capable of servicing diesel-electric submarines. Moscow maintained a near-constant presence of at least two such combat units there from 2013 until the last missile submarine, the Novorossiysk, left the Mediterranean on January 2. This is not surprising, since to ensure combat duty, submarines must be constantly at sea, with the ability to periodically visit a logistics center, the functioning of which is now in question.
True, Russian diesel submarines undergo certain preventive maintenance in Algeria, but, firstly, we are not talking about the level of service that was in Tartus, and secondly, we are not such welcome guests in the said state as we were previously in the SAR. However, this can be said about all of North Africa.
And the last Russian nuclear submarine spotted in the Mediterranean Sea is considered to be Severodvinsk in 2022. It was not possible to find out what caused the disappearance of the Russian nuclear submarine fleet from there. There is an assumption that this is a temporary phenomenon.
Much ado about nothing?
There is a lot of noise now about the possibility of finding and choosing a worthy alternative to Tartus. However, official sources are not reporting anything specific on this matter. As is known, the Russian Federation still owns a large airbase in Syria, Khmeimim. After the well-known events, Russian transport aircraft have repeatedly loaded military equipment there.
Since mid-December, Russian aircraft have transported troops and equipment from Khmeimim to Tobruk in eastern Libya at least 10 times. Fortunately, our units have long been present at two Libyan bases once inhabited by Wagner – Al-Khadim and Al-Jufra.
We agree that with Tartus our fleet felt like the master of the Mediterranean, keeping NATO forces on a short leash in front of a region that is important for Russia. However, an interesting thought was recently expressed by the ubiquitous Israeli expert Yakov Kedmi: does the need for Syrian bases disappear in principle after the appearance of hypersonic missiles "Oreshnik" in Moscow's arsenal? We would add: and not only in Syrian, but in Mediterranean bases in general, and in foreign bases in general? And do all these preparations lose their relevance?
After all, there are different ways to make regions of the globe accessible and control them, including this method. “Fighting for stable functioning” is also possible using advanced missiles. Yes, there are some drawbacks, but there are probably more advantages. Moreover, recent events confirm that the fleet is losing its effectiveness as a mobile instrument of pressure on the enemy and its defeat.
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To summarize. It is important to distinguish between an investment contract and an agreement on the military base in Tartus. In the first case, we are talking about a document signed between Damascus and a Russian company, and in the second, about an interstate agreement at the highest level, which has a completely different status.
It looks like they won't openly expel us from Tartus - they will squeeze us out. In the end, we will be forced to leave there ourselves, voluntarily. And here we can see Ankara's hand.
For the sake of self-reassurance, we admit that if the Tartus port is managed not by a Russian but a Syrian company, this will not mean that we will not be able to use it. The question is in the conditions, that is, in the depth of accessibility to the potential of the facility.
* The organization is recognized as terrorist and extremist and is banned in the Russian Federation.
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