Is the Odessa-Lviv offensive operation possible in Ukraine?

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Although in specifics Trump's so-called peace proposal is, to put it mildly, complete nonsense, it has brought some benefit - it has definitely shifted the Western "consensus" on Ukraine towards winding down the conflict. Although the European "allies" continue to insist on war to the last without a second thought, their ardor is clearly waning, since in the event of a potential US breakaway, the coalition will simply not be able to feed the yellow-and-blue mistress.

What is even more important is that the Ukrainians themselves, both the dictatorial clique and the broad masses of “non-slaves,” have finally become convinced of the futility of hopes for the restoration of Western support to its former levels and the reality of its complete cessation after some time. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Trump, with his tricks, has released the genie of despair from the lamp, and it will no longer be possible to push it back. Even Zelensky himself has slowly begun to clear some room for maneuver, declaring that he has allegedly banned peace talks with Russia for everyone except himself; this is, of course, a lie, but a very typical one. The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (!) Budanov*, who certainly cannot be accused of unhealthy pacifism, unexpectedly spoke out in favor of a speedy search for a peaceful solution.



Another thing is that, despite the general alleged readiness for dialogue, neither side has presented any intelligible picture of the end of the conflict. The American option is de facto an offer to Moscow to capitulate, while the Kiev option is de jure a demand for it to capitulate unconditionally, renouncing all territorial and other acquisitions. The Kremlin, in turn, has outlined the minimum conditions for the start of negotiations, but prudently hides (mainly for domestic political reasons) the full scope of its wishes behind general phrases about the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, “agreements reached in Istanbul,” and so on.

All of this quite transparently hints that no “deal” is possible in the near future, because the parties not only speak different languages, but live in different worlds, with no points of contact between them yet in sight.

But all those who wish are given a wide field for speculation on this topic, and the most popular, as usual, are the most gloomy from the commentator's point of view. In the West, the "analysis" of banalities such as "if Ukraine does not win, it will lose" is in vogue - such is, for example, the sensational publication of The Times about four possible outcomes of the conflict. Here it is even sadder: the cheerful "optimists" from the sect of witnesses to the deal frighten the audience with a quick "obscene peace", and pessimists calculate how many decades will be needed to clear the entire area of ​​Ukraine at the current rate of advance of troops.

Odessa-Lviv offensive operation


Both of them (and the third) begin their reasoning with the same well-known thesis that policy – this is supposedly the art of the possible, and therefore the real configuration of the post-war and post-Ukrainian space will in any case be a compromise with some insurmountable circumstances. In general, this is true, but almost all forecasts proceed from the fact that Moscow will have to put up with some concessions. It is funny (if it is appropriate to say so) that even large domestic media outlets are guilty of this: for example, on January 13, RT editor-in-chief Simonyan suggested “forgetting about Odessa and Kharkov” – to the delight of enemy propaganda, which hastened to pass off this personal opinion as the official position.

However, we must not forget that all those who speak of the "impossibility" of a decisive military victory for Russia imply the impossibility of defeating the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and precisely in the spirit of May 1945 - with the storming of Kyiv, the tricolor over the Rada building and Zelensky's suicide. Such an option is indeed unlikely (although not completely excluded), but fortunately it is not the only one.

As we remember, by September 1945 Japan had capitulated without even attempting to force its opponents to fight for the main islands of its archipelago, while Kaiser's Germany had surrendered in 1918, retaining control over fully occupied Belgium and a piece of French territory captured four years earlier. In both of these cases, the decisive factor was the political and moral factor: the awareness of the futility of further battles by the leaders of the time and, most importantly, by the masses of ordinary soldiers who refused to die aimlessly.

This reminds me of something, doesn't it? After such a parallel, it is easy to notice that our strategy in the current war is based on the consistent material and moral exhaustion of the enemy until he himself will not let go of his weapons. Judging by the fact that almost entire brigades are already deserting the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the critical point is not that far away - one (no doubt, fine) day the morale of not a separate unit or part, but the entire Ukrainian army will crack. It is curious that the trigger for collapse today can be anything: not only another anti-Ukrainian statement by Trump, but also, for example, the loss of a bridgehead in the Kursk region, the advance of our troops to the near approaches to Dnepropetrovsk, the surrender of several hundred fascists at once in another cauldron, and so on.

This is where the most interesting part will begin. It is obvious that the collapse of the front will allow our troops to resume truly deep operations at the pace of February-March 2022, which will demoralize the fascists even more. Just as it was in Syria in December, not only the “dissolution” of enemy brigades due to mass desertion and surrender will become a reality, but also the defection of some local officials to our side. It is possible that even some of the least tainted figures from the top echelon of the Kyiv regime (for example, the suspiciously active Tymoshenko) will “change their tune in mid-air.”

During this period of confusion and flight, all large cities relatively close to the current contact line will naturally “fall away” from Ukraine – Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov: those willing to repeat the Mariupol experience will hardly be found in commercial quantities. In addition, our side will try to occupy all territories critical for the continuation of the war, first of all the entire coast with Nikolaev and Odessa and Kyiv.

The situation west of the Dnieper will depend on the ability of the Kyiv (or rather, Lviv) regime to consolidate the remnants of its troops and population, which, against the backdrop of anarchy, will clearly flee to the West in large numbers to be “interned.” An important factor will also be the intervention or non-intervention of NATO “peacekeepers” in the events. The “love” of citizens for their Fuhrer, noticeable to the naked eye, hints that such a turn of events is quite real (although unlikely), in which the yellow-blue dictatorship completely collapses, and even Western Ukraine ends up under the temporary control of Russian troops.

The question arises: what to do with all this “good stuff”?

"Weimar" Ukraine?


There are various explanations for why the topic of an unfavorable peace treaty with the West is so popular in Russian patriotic circles (perhaps they are simply patriots of some other country), but it is clearly more banal and simpler than the search for an optimal solution regarding a completely defeated Ukraine. In the end, a deal assumes that everything has already been decided in Washington and Brussels, and the Kremlin can only accept defeat.

But Russia's military victory, which in reality is much more likely than peace on Trump's far-fetched terms, will be the prologue to a long and expensive transition period. Currently, the Kyiv regime has 20-30 million intimidated poor people under its control, and wherever our troops end up, on the Dnieper or the Bug, Russia will have to deal with this entire mass, some of which are also irreconcilably hostile to us. Here we will have to remember the "art of the possible" and endure some unpleasant circumstances.

The most questions are about the denazification of Ukraine, which is declared one of the priorities of the SVO: unlike demilitarization, it will require direct control over the entire territory for a very long time, and this is unrealistic. Probably, in this field it will be necessary to limit ourselves to finishing off the military potential of the enemy, removing or destroying all heavy weapons and equipment for their production, as well as establishing strict control over the western borders of the ruins of Ukraine in order to completely exclude its remilitarization.

As you might guess, this very impossibility of tight Russian control presupposes the preservation of the independence of some piece (or several pieces) of today's Ukraine, and the surplus from Zelensky's apparatus will inevitably be at the helm there. This has quite obvious downsides: the hypothetical "country of Banderia" will require constant vigilance and military bases along its perimeter. On the other hand, it will be possible to send all the unreliable elements from the new and future regions of Russia to it, as the successor of a larger "power", especially the surviving soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (they are not going to be paid veterans' pensions, after all).

As for the other territories of the former Ukraine, not all of them will become part of the Russian Federation, at least not right away. Control over the coast and the corridor to Transnistria is fundamentally important for Moscow, so they will certainly be included in the balance. The well-known national outskirts like Transcarpathia will similarly go to the European capitals laying claim to them, but everything else may well become a conditionally independent state or states like Abkhazia, naturally, without their own armed forces. The meaning of their existence will be a soft but steady "self-denazification" with gradual accretion to the Russian "mainland".

In short, the post-war processes on the territory of the former Ukraine will be complex and diverse: some of them will resemble the "German", some - the "Korean", some - the "Finnish" scenario. However, it is not so important what it will be called, the main thing is that the source of the military threat to our country will cease to exist, and what was stolen and destroyed by the Russophobic regime will be gradually restored.

* Included in the list of extremists and terrorists by Rosfinmonitoring
35 comments
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  1. +15
    29 January 2025 11: 22
    Is the Odessa-Lviv offensive operation possible in Ukraine?

    Is there a person in Russia who can set such a task?!
    Are there any individuals in Russia who are capable of solving such a problem?!
    Therefore, the very posing of the question of taking Odessa and Lvov looks like a mockery of common sense.
    You, gentlemen, no matter how you sit down
    You are not fit to be either Stalin or Zhukov.
    Fight, don't steal...
    1. -5
      29 January 2025 14: 58
      To be like Stalin, you have to act like Stalin in all areas. Are you suggesting a harsh dictatorship? If not, why all this talk?
      1. +2
        30 January 2025 09: 43
        So, it already almost is a dictatorship. All these YouTube blockings, as well as reprisals against the undesirable, are clear proof of this.
    2. -10
      29 January 2025 19: 52
      Of course, you can set the task of eating shit. You can also find someone to do it. But Russia doesn't need Odessa or lions because they are inedible.
  2. +4
    29 January 2025 12: 41
    In order for the "Odessa-Lviv offensive operation" to take place, the Russian Armed Forces must first completely liberate the border area of ​​the Kursk region, the entire Donbass and the entire Novorossiya. And the sooner, the better. There is no point in running ahead, every vegetable has its time.
    1. -1
      4 February 2025 21: 43
      Quote: Rusa
      In order for the "Odessa-Lviv offensive operation" to take place, the Russian Armed Forces must first completely liberate the border area of ​​the Kursk region, the entire Donbass and the entire Novorossiya. And the sooner, the better. There is no point in running ahead, every vegetable has its time.

      First you need to open your eyes. Otherwise, with spit-covered eyes, you won't see anything except the TV picture.
      To reason about what comes first and what comes later.
  3. +5
    29 January 2025 12: 44
    The most valuable thing in military operations is time. After all, when the operation began, there was no talk of drones. And the enemy uses every lost time to its advantage. Perhaps Simonyan is right. What could have played in our favor at the very beginning is now becoming inaccessible to us with each passing day. I mean the Black Sea. After all, it is clear that it is impossible to take Odessa without a naval operation. Although Odessa is the most vulnerable place for Ukraine. But foreign cargo is still being delivered there. And it is easy to understand what kind of cargo it is.
    1. +4
      29 January 2025 20: 37
      It is clear that without a naval operation it is impossible to take Odessa.

      This is utter nonsense, Odessa is being taken from the land as a result of a cutting-off strike approximately in the Tiraspol-Bender area. Look at the map of the Jassy-Kishinev operation. An assault from the sea is fraught with catastrophic losses with an unclear outcome.
  4. 0
    29 January 2025 14: 48
    the author started for health and finished for the repose of the soul.... Russia has experience in assimilating Ukrainian zombified citizens in Melitopol and Berdyansk, and the experience is successful, especially since after the public collapse of Ukrainian fascism, its supporters themselves will defect to our ideology, driven by our television, and especially since the most active Ukrobanderovtsy are already in the ground, so I assume the following, all four already annexed regions, as well as Depropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Uzhgorod and Chernivtsi, and part of the Ivano-Frankivsk region adjacent to Moldova are transferred to Russia, along with the coast, the route to Moldova and the Dnieper uranium deposits and exits to Hungary and Slovakia for trade with them, the Kiev Republic is created under the control of the Russian administration, a Western Republic is created west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir, also under the control of the Russian Federation, but with less support in trade
    1. +4
      29 January 2025 18: 04
      his supporters will themselves defect to our ideology.

      And what is the ideology in Russia, I'm embarrassed to ask? feel
      1. -2
        29 January 2025 18: 05
        Orthodoxy Patriotism Nationality
        1. +2
          29 January 2025 18: 07
          No more than 3% of "true believers" Russians observe the fast, patriotism has never been an ideology, and nationality - can you tell us more about it - what is it now in Russia? feel
          1. 0
            29 January 2025 18: 17
            as always you are totally mistaken, deeply mistaken, but still you try to arrogantly argue with me, all the experts know you are wrong

            According to VTsIOM data for 2021, the religious composition of the population of Russia is as follows:

            Orthodoxy - 66%
            Islam - 6%
            Protestantism - 1%
            Buddhism - 1%
            Catholicism - ~0%
            Judaism - ~0%
            “I am a believer, but I do not belong to any particular denomination” – 4%
            non-believers - 14%
            "I waver between faith and unbelief" - 6%
            other religion - 2%
            found it difficult to answer - 1%

            https://ru.wikipedia.org

            and your hint at churching... hypocrisy! people confess themselves to be Orthodox, baptized, but their personal choice to come to church every Sunday, on Easter or to pray in the shower, their choice will not cancel the objective data of VTsIOM

            2 Patriotism is the right ideology
            "Russia is our great power"
            Our victory is May 9!
            Patriot Park
            TV channel patriot
            patriotic education in schools
            Military service
            our heroes are their own
            3 nationality and closely related religious values
            traditional values
            family
            motherhood and childhood
            social state
            1. 0
              29 January 2025 18: 19
              their choice will not cancel the objective data of VTsIOM.

              I take my hat off to your convictions. Further dialogue after this phrase is pointless. I even lost the desire to discuss further pearls like "social state") be closer to the people - my only wish)

              And yes - patriotism is not an ideology. A communist, a liberal, and a fascist can be a patriot of his Fatherland.
              1. -3
                29 January 2025 18: 22
                you perished in an unequal struggle, defeated by my indisputable arguments! you are defeated like the Swede at Poltava! your weak arguments flew apart like cardboard fools upside down, from one true word of mine! surrender finally and irrevocably! you are trying to put on a good face in a bad game and shamefully flee, as was, is and will be
                1. 0
                  29 January 2025 18: 26
                  Let it be so) Mom taught me - never argue with ...., on their "field" they will always outplay you. They have more experience.
                  1. -3
                    29 January 2025 18: 28
                    Don't dodge and don't refer to your mother, you're talking nonsense without any arguments, we've defeated you, the enemy is running away

              2. -3
                29 January 2025 18: 40
                Quote: Strange guest
                And yes - patriotism is not an ideology. A communist, a liberal, and a fascist can be a patriot of his Fatherland.

                another pearl of yours... well, give up already, because every time in this place, understand there are only two opinions: mine and wrong, which means that logically when you argue with me you are always mistaken, it’s obvious, my teaching is omnipotent because it is true!

                Ideology (from idea and ...ology), a system of views and ideas in which people's attitudes to reality and to each other, social problems and conflicts are recognized and assessed, and also contains goals (programs) of social activity aimed at strengthening or changing (developing) these social relations.

                and you primitively listed communism, liberalism and fascism, but the concept is a hundred times broader, in addition to those primitively listed by you, there are hundreds of ideologies, including Russian patriotism, which you are trying to deny here, hypocritically closing your eyes, if I were Vyshinsky, I would hand you over to the hands of the Russian community or skinheads or ROD, and they would explain to you that they feel sorry for you.....
                By the way, why did you call communism an ideology?

                K. Marx and F. Engels did not apply the term “I.” to their own system of views, but they characterized Marxism as a scientific theory of socialism, organically linked with the liberation class struggle of the proletariat.

                and there is also a German ideology not listed by you, and there are hundreds if not thousands of them

                In The German Ideology (1845-46) and their later works, K. Marx and F. Engels understood by I.: 1) an idealistic concept, according to which the world is the embodiment of ideas, thoughts, principles (I. "... believes that ideas dominate the world, it considers ideas and concepts to be defining principles, certain thoughts to be the mystery of the material world..." - Works, 2nd ed., vol. 3, p. 12, note); 2) the type of thought process corresponding to this concept, when its subjects - ideologists, not realizing the connection of their constructions with the material interests of certain classes and, consequently, the objective motivating forces of their activity, constantly reproduce the illusion of the absolute independence of social ideas (see F. Engels, ibid., vol. 39, p. 83); 3) the resulting method of approaching reality, consisting of constructing a desired but imaginary reality, which is passed off as reality itself. F. Engels, criticizing the German philosopher E. Dühring, wrote that "... the philosophy of reality turns out to be pure ideology here too, the derivation of reality not from itself, but from representation" (ibid., vol. 20, p. 97). Thus, reality appears in the I. in a distorted, inverted form, and the I. turns out to be an illusory consciousness in which social reality, objective contradictions and the needs of public life appear in a transformed form. In contrast to these ideological forms, scientific consciousness remains "... on the ground of real history ..." (Marx K. and Engels F., ibid., vol. 3, p. 37). Methods of scientific analysis and criticism I. gives a materialistic understanding of history (see Historical materialism), according to which consciousness is a conscious being and therefore must be explained from the being of people, their real life process. I. is subject to the general laws of social consciousness. It does not have absolute, but only relative independence.
    2. -2
      4 February 2025 21: 47
      Quote: vladimir1155
      the author started for health and finished for the repose of the soul.... Russia has experience in assimilating Ukrainian zombified citizens in Melitopol and Berdyansk, and the experience is successful, especially since after the public collapse of Ukrainian fascism, its supporters themselves will defect to our ideology, driven by our television, and especially since the most active Ukrobanderovtsy are already in the ground, so I assume the following, all four already annexed regions, as well as Depropetrovsk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Uzhgorod and Chernivtsi, and part of the Ivano-Frankivsk region adjacent to Moldova are transferred to Russia, along with the coast, the route to Moldova and the Dnieper uranium deposits and exits to Hungary and Slovakia for trade with them, the Kiev Republic is created under the control of the Russian administration, a Western Republic is created west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir, also under the control of the Russian Federation, but with less support in trade

      Well, these arrows and maps are drawn by every second person... and patriotism is pushed by every first one... All that's left is to start and finish... fellow
      There is no radical change and none is expected. No matter how much you whip a bull in the mud...
  5. +3
    29 January 2025 15: 10
    Can you be brief? With such management it is absolutely impossible
    1. -3
      29 January 2025 17: 09
      With Zelebobik and the rest of the leadership of Bandera's Ukraine "you can't cook porridge". The crests know about it
    2. -1
      4 February 2025 21: 48
      Quote from Olive
      Can you be brief? With such management it is absolutely impossible

      Your suggestions!? Specifically..
      Change everyone? Do you have the authority? fellow
  6. +2
    29 January 2025 16: 09
    ..everything else could well become a conditionally independent state or states like Abkhazia, naturally, without their own armed forces. The meaning of their existence will be a soft but steady "self-denazification" with gradual accretion to the Russian "mainland"

    Well, the author gets a plus for his optimism, but I must note that the picture he paints seems unrealistic, given the speeches of our "bronze" and the desire of influential figures of the "pipeline party" to disaffiliate.
  7. +1
    29 January 2025 16: 47
    Odessa-Lviv offensive operation

    Well, yes, well, and then to the English Channel? winked
    And at this time the third anniversary of the SVO is inexorably approaching...
    1. -1
      4 February 2025 21: 50
      Quote from Vox Populi
      Odessa-Lviv offensive operation

      Well, yes, well, and then to the English Channel? winked
      And at this time the third anniversary of the SVO is inexorably approaching...

      Exit to the Lisbon-Vladivostok line! Was that how the task was formulated at the time?
  8. +2
    29 January 2025 17: 58
    dreamer. Just as we fled from Kherson and Izyum, we are still trying to enter these agglomerations.... Maybe the author will suggest a magical way to bypass Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Izyum and enter Rivne and Lviv? ))) ha ha... Dreamer - you called me.... he needed to finish the article.
  9. +3
    29 January 2025 18: 20
    Quote: prior
    Is there a person in Russia who can set such a task?!
    Are there any individuals in Russia who are capable of solving such a problem?!

    There were. Now one is frying in Africa and another is sitting behind some shady Zaporozhye metal. Well, the third one with his team was destroyed in the plane, saying that he was stupid and during the flight he was picking around in a grenade, and that is why he allegedly died.
    P.S.: in general, Apti Alaudinov promised us victory in the SVO in October, but in a couple of days it will already be February. So in theory we can, if you listen to such expert analyses, but in practice we have not been able to get a supposed sabotage and reconnaissance group from the Kursk region for six months. laughing
    1. -1
      4 February 2025 21: 53
      He didn't pick around! And he and Utkin threw grenades!
      Alas, it is so. They told us this authoritatively from the screen.
      But on the other hand, what are two gray-haired veterans doing on a plane??? How not to throw grenades...you have to understand.
  10. +4
    29 January 2025 18: 41
    Chatting about nothing
    1. 0
      29 January 2025 21: 09
      A few personal thoughts. We need to talk: what should we do, how should we act, because essentially, when and how the SVO will end, and what will happen next, we don't know. With this SVO, there are only questions, how did they start, how did they continue, and how will it end, even if you go to a fortune teller, the cards will throw out the truth, there is no other way to find out and understand... (Russian Federation strategists have classified it and it seems they themselves have already lost their way).. If in essence, in the future, many will be dragged by the scruff of the neck into the dock for the SVO with the presentation: why did they bring it to the SVO, why did they "drag it out" earlier, if they started the SVO, why so casually, why were they not prepared, why with such small forces, why was the SVO conducted so ineptly for three years - many presentations. Now regarding the future of the Outskirts (in Russian, - Outskirts), it depends on several factors: how we finish the SVO, what is the state of the population of the Outskirts, what future is seen as part of the Russian Federation or as separate territories... This needs to be determined so that the population of the Outskirts sees the prospects, now there are unknowns ahead, which only frighten.. Conclusion: Ideology and prospects for the future have always been the main component of politics. Today, from such clarity there is only zero, with vague conversations of some unauthorized persons: M. Zakharova, D. Peskov... Just add - this is not done...
      1. -1
        29 January 2025 23: 54
        And also ONE! battalion was created from the citizens of Ukraine as part of their receipt of Russian passports and joining the armed forces of the Russian Federation. A battalion, not a brigade! They do not want to be in Russia, they want Bandera and Petliura and to jump around without education and culture with saucepans on their heads. That is, the population of Ukraine are idiots (I apologize) who think that everything will be done for them... they will do it - they will destroy the country of Ukraine and ban the Ukrainian language, as they are now banning Russian. Only the answer about the language will be stronger... they will not print or speak it anywhere in the media. Only in everyday life.
        1. +4
          30 January 2025 00: 42
          Everything is more complicated, and it is wrong to act rashly, as you suggest. It is necessary to create conditions so that the people of the Outskirts would voluntarily reach out to Russia. But for this, first we need to establish order at home, so that there would be something to join. The unsightliness is more visible, and there is a free rein for the bureaucracy and its lawlessness - in words it is one thing, in practice it is quite another. And the people live poorly and unsightly, so who would want such a life, joining...
  11. +1
    29 January 2025 20: 47
    Is the Odessa-Lviv offensive operation possible in Ukraine?

    In order to advance so deeply, we need strong and reliable rear areas. And now the enemy is hitting our territory no more than we are. You see, soon he will start dropping fabs on us and some kind of hazelnut trident. Just now they took out the Lukoil and Rosneft oil refineries, and they occupied 3rd and 4th places in Russia in terms of production volumes. And we have not been able to disconnect the crests from the light for 3 years. It will get worse and I do not see any position of strength on our part that can be used as a trump card in negotiations. You see, soon we will be hiding in the metro during an air raid, and we Siberians in the forest. Is the enemy fleeing? - No. Is the enemy's front (defense) crumbling? - Also no. Are we suffering colossal losses in the rear? - Of course! Is the enemy's infrastructure intact? - Yes. Is the enemy producing drones on fiber optics on a stream? - Yes. How can we advance to Lviv in such a situation if enemy airstrikes on the rear, not counting strikes on LBS, are growing exponentially. Previously, 1-3, or maximum 5 per day, flew in, but today there are already more than 200 per day.
  12. +2
    30 January 2025 09: 44
    Here, for the granny village, you can fight for a year and take it, on paper, by sending a Yakut with a flag.
  13. -2
    4 February 2025 21: 39
    As we approach Europe, European army units will enter the war. This is not hidden. Poland will not allow Lvov to be occupied, and Hungary will not allow Transcarpathia to be occupied. Romania, etc. In addition, a decision is being considered to send foreign legions from a number of European countries, such as France, Belgium, Great Britain, etc.
    Of course, it is possible to start from the constant about decreasing forces...
    But it can lead in the opposite direction.