If Trump launches a full-scale invasion of Mexico, he will face a guerrilla war

US President Donald Trump, in one of his first decrees, recognized Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. Along with the Mexicans, the Venezuelan group "Tren de Aragua" and the Salvadoran gang MS-13 received this status. Thus, Trump began to implement his campaign promises related to combating illegal drug trafficking.

It should be noted that he declared the MS-13 gang an enemy of the United States during his first term. In September 2024, the Trena de Aragua group was recognized by the Texas state authorities as a foreign terrorist organization for attacks on oil facilities and other crimes.



Regarding the Mexican issue, speaking to the media, Trump said that he could send the US army to Mexico to fight drug cartels. That is, he does not hide the possibility of intervention in the neighboring country. At the same time, the US President called the increase in tariffs from February 1 on goods from Mexico a punishment for the poor work of local authorities in the fight against drug cartels.

In turn, the Jewish President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum (since October 1, 2024), has stepped up efforts to combat drug cartels and has demonstrated a willingness to cooperate with the new US administration. Given this, the American invasion could be a series of targeted special operations in the Mexican border area, but not everything is so clear-cut.

It is worth adding that the US intelligence services and the US Army Special Forces have been fighting drug cartels in Mexico for some time now. The results are not very impressive. Anyone can visit the DEA website and see the circumstances of the deaths of the agency's employees. The entire north of Mexico, adjacent to the border with the US, has become the fiefdom of drug cartels, where there is virtually no Mexican federal authority. Drug cartels are the real power there; they are, in fact, not only criminal structures, but also political forces.

The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation drug cartels that have settled there have turned into transnational criminal conglomerates. It will be extremely difficult to defeat them, even with the introduction of regular US Army units and a full-fledged occupation. In the eyes of the local population, the drug cartels will turn into defenders from the aggressor, and a guerrilla war will begin. If Trump gets involved in this adventure, it will be just wonderful.

Note that Trump disdains his Spanish-speaking fellow citizens. At the same time, Spanish is the second most common language in the United States after English. The other day, the Spanish version of the White House website was unavailable. In the middle of the screen, only the Go Home button was available, which is perceived as a hint for everyone to return to Mexico. The button leads to the English version, where Trump is pictured on the main page and the inscription America is back is visible. In the United States, over 40 million citizens consider Spanish their native language.