Can Donbass lithium become “white” oil for Russia?

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As the Russian Armed Forces advance westward toward the Dnieper, reports have begun to appear that the largest lithium deposit in Ukraine and one of the largest in Europe has come under Russian control. Will this light metal be able to become “white oil” for our country, replacing lost income from hydrocarbon exports?

Lithium fever


As electronic technologies develop and become widely adopted, of technologies lithium has become one of the critical elements of our entire civilization. It is used not only in the production of electronics, namely lithium-ion batteries, but also in metallurgy, ferrous and non-ferrous, for deoxidation and increasing the plasticity and strength of alloys, in nuclear power and nuclear technology for obtaining tritium, in the production of ceramics and glass, and in medicine.



Of course, lithium is most needed in the production of lithium-ion batteries, which gave rise to the so-called "lithium fever", which was expressed in a rapid increase in demand and price for this white metal. It developed in three stages. The first jump in the cost of lithium occurred in the early 90s of the last century, when mass production of lithium-ion batteries for all sorts of gadgets began, the number of which only grew.

The second significant price increase was associated with the start of mass production of electric cars since the 2010s, which required powerful lithium-ion batteries. According to some estimates, the production of one battery for Tesla Model S requires 63 kg of this metal with 99,5% purity. Following Elon Musk's company, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Ford, Audi, Porsche, Volvo, Huyndai and Honda are promoting their own line of electric cars.

The third jump in lithium prices occurred in 2021-2022, when, against the backdrop of the “green” agenda, Europe, China and the United States began to implement a gradual “decarbonization” program. economics and the transition to "green" technologies. Electric vehicle production volumes began to exceed the supply of lithium on the world market, aggravated by the COVID problems in China, and prices for the white metal set a historical record.

China's Lithium Hegemony


What does China have to do with it? Given that it is China that controls about 80% of the world market for integrated services from lithium mining to its processing into finished products. According to the US Geological Survey, the largest lithium reserves in descending order are owned by Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, the USA, Australia, China, Congo, Canada, Germany, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Serbia, Russia, Peru and Mali.

True, recently the state news agency of the People's Republic of China Xinhua announced that the richest deposit of this white metal has been discovered in the region of Tibet, which makes the Celestial Empire the owner of 16,5% of the world's lithium reserves, ahead of Australia, Argentina and Bolivia, second only to Chile. But it is not enough to have deposits; one must also have the ability to commercially develop them and, preferably, process the raw materials into finished products.

The top 10 producers of "white oil" include Australia, Chile, China, Argentina, the United States, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Portugal, Bolivia and Canada. The top three account for 52%, 25% and 13% of global lithium production, respectively. It should be noted that Chinese companies extract lithium not only in China itself, but also wherever possible.

Beijing is essential to this business, as the Celestial Empire has built gigafactories to produce batteries of various shapes, sizes, and standards. It is from China that batteries for Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, and other cars come. Six of the world's ten largest lithium-ion battery manufacturers are in China. One of them, CATL, produces three out of ten batteries worldwide.

We are telling all this so that there is an understanding regarding the real prospects of Russian “white oil”.

Russia's "White Oil"


The Chinese have created a successful business model, which makes it easier for everyone to sell lithium there as a raw material for processing, as well as to place orders for battery production. In this matter, they have no equal today, and they would be the final buyers of Shevchenko's lithium if it were developed.

In reality, things are very complicated with this deposit in Donbass. On the one hand, there are those who want to develop it, namely, the Australian company European Lithium, owned by the British businessman Anthony Sage. Back in the days of former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, it bought European Lithium Ukraine LLC (former Petro-Consulting) with licenses for the development of the Dobroe and Shevchenkovskoe deposits.

On the other hand, there are questions about the possibility of real lithium development in Donbas. The reserves of ore containing this white metal at the Shevchenkovske deposit are estimated at almost 14 million tons. This is an impressive figure, but its commercial extraction will require even more fresh water during the ore flotation process.

There are already very big problems with water in Donbass, which we constantly talk about, calling on our strategists to reach at least the middle reaches of the Dnieper in order to take control over the sources of the Dnieper-Donbass water supply channel. If this is not done, lithium development can be forgotten. But even if such an offensive operation is successful, there will be big environmental risks for this war-torn "new" Russian region, since the fresh water used up during flotation will be contaminated with various toxic elements.

This was one of the reasons why the Shevchenko deposit was not touched during the USSR, but Mr. Zelensky does not feel sorry for this land. In any case, the final buyer of Donbass lithium would be China, which knows how to set its own price conditions, from where the produced batteries will go to the West.
46 comments
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  1. +4
    18 January 2025 13: 11
    Superficial assessment. Of course, there is no Lake Baikal in Novorossiya. But if we want to stop being a raw materials appendage and remember about possible sanctions and our own strategic interests, then, as an option, we can consider the stage of enrichment of the mineral at the mining and processing plant with subsequent transportation of the concentrate to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, where we can build an Atomka to feed the desalination plant. A closed cycle of water use cannot be ruled out either. Another option - at gas power plants, when burning natural gas, a large percentage of combustion products is that same water - condense it for heating a greenhouse with subsequent use in lithium production. We just need a state approach, and not a pursuit of 300% profit here and now.
    1. +4
      18 January 2025 13: 28
      Superficial assessment.

      Not superficial, but adequate.

      But if we want to stop being a raw materials appendage and remember about possible sanctions and our own strategic interests, then, as an option, we can consider the stage of enrichment of the mineral at the mining and processing plant with subsequent transportation of the concentrate to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, where we can build an Atomka to feed the desalination plant. A closed cycle of water use cannot be ruled out either. Another option - at gas power plants, when burning natural gas, a large percentage of combustion products is that same water - condense it for heating a greenhouse with subsequent use in lithium production.

      None of this has been done since 2014, even for Crimea, which is located on the Black Sea.

      We just need a government approach, not a pursuit of 300% profit here and now.

      It does not exist and will not exist. Only a dream to quickly return to the status of a raw materials appendage of the West.
      1. +2
        18 January 2025 14: 48
        You just don't know that when desalination plants work, a problem arises: Where to put the salt - dirt after cleaning and evaporating this crap from the water. If there was an ocean nearby, like in Qatar or the UAE, then that would be one thing, but what about where to put this stuff? Spoil the nearby land by burying it?
        In addition, the layer with lithium raw materials goes sharply down towards Dnepropetrovsk. There is also a problem with the organization of mines for extraction and lifting of raw materials to the surface. Therefore, it is easy to judge from the outside, not being a competent specialist and to scold someone pointlessly, not having the necessary knowledge yourself.
        The time will come, and they will start mining. Perhaps they will develop a new technology for processing raw materials. This is no longer uncommon today.
        Well, I'll add. At one time, geological exploration from the USA worked there, 15-20 years ago.
        Well, so what? No progress was made in the development or even in the acquisition of the site. This means that the extraction and the problems with it became clear to them and they did nothing further.
    2. +2
      18 January 2025 13: 29
      The price of this lithium, taking into account the construction of Atomka and water purification, will be uncompetitive.
      The cost of lithium is only falling. In November 22nd $81.000 per ton, in November 24th $13.000 per ton. 6 times! Experts claim that it will stabilize at about $10-11 thousand per ton in 25th. Or rather, they hope so.
      There are two reasons - there turned out to be a lot of lithium in the world. And the "green agenda" turned out to be a big fiction.

      And the Author has something wrong with his arithmetic:

      The reserves of ore containing this white metal at the Shevchenkovskoye deposit are estimated at almost 14 million tons.

      Half of the world's reserves are in the Shevchenkovskoye deposit? Don't talk nonsense!

      Confirmed lithium reserves are located in 20 countries around the world and amount to 1 million tons as of January 2024, 28. At the same time, 80% of the confirmed reserves, or 22 million tons of lithium, are accounted for in the subsoil of Chile, Australia, Argentina and China.

      https://nedradv.ru/nedradv/ru/ratings?rubric=10bf605261c2320b59dda400e8765096
      1. +1
        18 January 2025 15: 07
        You are comparing different things - the world's reserves of metallic lithium and the reserves of lithium ore at the deposit.
      2. 0
        18 January 2025 16: 03
        Quote: Strange guest
        Do not smack nonsense!

        Is she really uncomfortable?
        Happy holidays to you all! And happy upcoming and last in this endless New Year's queue!
        1. -1
          18 January 2025 18: 27
          Thank you! Congratulations to you too!
          As for the article - well, it's just a desire to hype on the part of the Author. Aha - Ukraine has discovered half of the world's lithium reserves. I laughed.
          1. The comment was deleted.
          2. 0
            19 January 2025 08: 14
            As for the article - well, it's just a desire to hype on the part of the Author. Aha - Ukraine has discovered half of the world's lithium reserves. I laughed.

            The Shevchenkivske lithium deposit, one of the largest in Europe, was discovered in 1982. Lithium reserves are estimated at 13,8 million tons. In addition, according to the chairman of the Public Chamber commission on sovereignty issues, co-chairman of the coordinating council for the integration of new regions Vladimir Rogov, there are many other valuable natural resources there: niobium, beryllium, tantalum, etc.

            According to Pushilin, now "all the resources" will benefit the residents of the DPR and Russia.

            https://ria.ru/20250113/pushilin-1993431640.html
            laughing without reason is a sign of foolishness hi
            RIA Novosti also decided to hype things up, and the Author followed suit. Yes
            Or maybe for the author as a journalist the weight of RIA Novosti, one of the three largest federal media outlets, as a source is higher than that of a private shop "about the subsoil" from I.P. Shiryaeva? wink
            1. -1
              19 January 2025 09: 22
              If you really believe that the Shevchenkovskoye deposit contains HALF of the world's lithium reserves, I can't do anything about it. Yes
              But even (let's imagine the impossible) if this is true - how much will the price of lithium collapse if Russia also enters the world market, doubling the world supply of this metal? recourse
              1. 0
                19 January 2025 10: 07
                If you really believe that the Shevchenkovskoye deposit contains HALF of the world's lithium reserves, I can't do anything about it yes

                As for questions of faith - that's not for me. Nobody is asking you to "do" anything, actually.
                Also, that you choose correct expressions when commenting on materials that other people are working hard on, without belittling that work.
    3. 0
      25 January 2025 11: 11
      I agree, but I want to generalize. The Lord God gave Russia countless riches so that it could use them for its own needs, and not squander them on the side like an alcoholic or a drug addict, exchanging them for green wrappers, some of which have already been taken away, and most of the dollars and euros will soon turn into nothing. hi
  2. +2
    18 January 2025 13: 13
    Nothing has been transferred yet. Dushilin is a disgrace, he doesn't even know his region. And you haven't studied the issue.
    There are several Shevchenkos in the DPR, I think 3. Where is the lithium, this is Shevchenko in the Velikonovoselovsky district, it is not under our control.
    1. +1
      18 January 2025 13: 29
      There are several Shevchenkos in the DPR, I think 3. Where is the lithium, this is Shevchenko in the Velikonovoselovsky district, it is not under our control.

      It is known that Pushilin gave a false start. But this does not change the essence of the issue, in principle.
      1. +1
        18 January 2025 13: 37
        Well, if there is no truce, then we will take this Shevchenko sooner or later.
        1. +3
          18 January 2025 14: 11
          Quote from Muscool
          Well, if there is no truce, then we will take this Shevchenko sooner or later.

          The Brits won't give us a truce, Trump won't lift the sanctions and I think he'll throw in some really tough ones. No one will let us go anywhere and for what? So that we can pump gas into Europe again, free up a huge number of soldiers and equipment and start cleaning up the Middle East? The Brits understand that this is one of the few chances to eventually knock us down and leave us without a chance to recover, like in the nineties. The Asians like our cheap oil, the Americans like our gas pipes with holes in the seabed, and in Syria we sit very quietly within the borders of our bases and don't say a word.
          1. -1
            18 January 2025 15: 16
            The British will now have a new government that looks at the Ukrainian conflict differently, especially since they have already had more problems in the economy than they could handle.
            In Syria, paradoxically, the new authorities are interested in preserving our bases. So everything is quite normal there. There will also be two bases in Libya, one with an airfield is already being completed. By the way, both authorities there welcome this. There will also be order in the Middle East. We have only one interest there - that there is no such thing as ISIS, and now the Turks, Israelis and others are interested in this. We have sort of solved the oil and gas problems with laying various pipelines there. There will be no danger to our business there. Trade is being established or has been established, so what do we need from these countries now? Moreover, we signed a good agreement with Iran, you can’t even imagine how beneficial it is for both us and them. The North-South transport corridor through them has started working and is now expanding, which will give us access to South Asia and India and other countries there. This is very beneficial for all these countries.
            Leaky pipes? We have paid for them long ago. But eventually they will be repaired, the fact is that the Americans have problems with shale gas reserves and it turned out that there is not as much of it as they said and thought earlier. Maximum for 15 years, but now the States themselves have a problem with gas, which means that some of the gas will not go for export but will go to the domestic market. And this reduces the time of reserves for sale abroad by the United States. Regarding reserves - there was a report at a closed meeting of Congress from the energy commission several years ago. So the European Union will still turn to our gas. Well, our LNG is now selling well.
            Well, about our "cheap" oil. It's not that cheap, it's just that when they buy a huge volume or sign a long-term contract, then, as a rule, sellers all over the world give a good discount. Compare small wholesale and large wholesale of retail chains. Completely different prices for the same product. That's how it is here. So our oil is now traded at average world prices. Well, the sanctions are successfully bypassed. I can say that even American citizens in the form of experts and specialists help us with this. For example, the main insurers of our tankers are Americans and Europeans. Surprisingly, but true.
            So sanctions are sanctions, but life and the desire to earn money are different things. Money always triumphs over evil!
            1. -2
              18 January 2025 15: 34
              And one more thing. You can sell oil, for example, as the US demanded. But if the tanker is yours, and almost all of them are ours, then the difference can simply be included in the payment of transportation costs. The seller will still receive all of his money for the sold goods at normal market prices. This has been worked out for a long time and is used. It is also impossible to prohibit entry into the port. There are always berths near the port that do not belong to the port - these are fishermen or some other companies that have built their berths. So organizing the reception of oil products on them is simply a matter of a short time for the construction of communications for reception. Which is being done. For example, throwing a section of the railway of a hundred to 200 meters as a temporary facility is a week or two. Well, or bringing and installing pumping equipment, or even laying a multi-kilometer pipeline to the nearest railway, or the same oil depot near the port, also quickly. The port has nothing to do with it. Which is being done now. So all efforts to prohibit are temporary and there are many ways to get around other people’s stupidity.
            2. 0
              18 January 2025 17: 16
              Well, I won't even climb such a mountain of optimism that you have given me )))
              1. -1
                18 January 2025 17: 41
                It's not about optimism. It's just that any sanctions cannot foresee everything.
                In addition, enterprises processing a certain grade of oil need to work. And there are different types of oil on the market and you often have to look for one to avoid retooling production for another (and it may not be freely available), which is very expensive both in terms of money and time. Moreover, Russian oil is optimally balanced in terms of chemical composition. But if there is no oil, there is no production of products and your niche in the market will be occupied by others and returning to this market in the future will be problematic. You simply do not understand with your mind what oil trading and its processing with sale are. This is a business of very serious and very smart guys and there is a lot of money involved. That is why they will push through any decision or find a solution to the issue that is legally beneficial to them and to the state where the enterprises are located.
  3. +1
    18 January 2025 15: 34
    I really like the hybrid theme, because a pure electric car doesn't work here, it's very convenient for me to charge from a socket at the dacha, then at work, the battery is enough for 60 km, just right, and I really need an all-wheel drive hybrid, it's hard for me to get out of snowdrifts on the front in the Ural laughing
    And then there will be enough lithium for everyone am
    1. +1
      18 January 2025 17: 05
      I really like the hybrid theme, because pure electric cars don't work here.

      I also think that in winter the heating in the car works at full capacity, which consumes a lot of energy. Here a hybrid installation would be useful.
  4. +3
    18 January 2025 15: 45
    Super cool plans!!!! I'm just bursting with the prospects!
    That is, there is not even hope for recycling or producing our own batteries.
    We will simply trade in raw materials and enrich the processors, who will have more when releasing the final product - and we are ahead of the rest of the world as a raw materials appendage of the world.
    A brilliant perspective - a Darwin award for the genius of the idea!
  5. +1
    18 January 2025 15: 55
    As far as I understand, we won’t be producing Li-Ion batteries ourselves; it’s better to sell lithium and rare earth metals.
    1. 0
      18 January 2025 16: 12
      Li-ion technology is actually becoming obsolete. There are already quite viable industrial developments on sodium, of which there is practically so much in the open on Earth that it is possible to remove all lithium from battery production. This (along with the current refined estimates of lithium reserves) also affects the sharp decrease in the price of lithium.
      1. 0
        18 January 2025 18: 05
        You are right. The Chinese are already mastering this technology and their first sources have already begun to appear in their military. In a year it will probably go on a mass scale, but it is not yet clear where first.
        1. 0
          18 January 2025 18: 24
          Quote: svoroponov
          It's not clear yet where to go first

          It doesn't matter. The main thing is that the process has started.
  6. +2
    18 January 2025 15: 57
    Black oil, "white" oil...
    Haven't they polluted the coast enough with fuel oil?
    Let's add some more lithium production waste.
    Have you already calculated the "profit" from the sale of fuel oil?
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. 0
    18 January 2025 17: 02
    There are already very big problems with water in Donbass, which we constantly talk about, calling on our strategists to reach at least the middle reaches of the Dnieper in order to take control over the sources of the Dnieper-Donbass water canal.

    Lithium is quite expensive when mined in Donbass. Therefore, it will not be mined any time soon. As for water, the Dnieper-Donbass highway is not the only source of water. Water flows by gravity to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal. It is not that difficult to run it along the Sea of ​​Azov in the direction of Mariupol and then install pumping stations, which, by the way, are also on the old highway. True, for this it is necessary to vacate the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station with at least a 30 km bridgehead.
  9. -2
    18 January 2025 17: 18
    Quote: svoroponov
    But if the tanker is yours, and almost all of them are ours, then the difference can simply be included in the payment of transportation costs.

    Do we have our own tankers? Who built them when and where? We charter (rent) them, yes, but I haven't heard anything about our own.
    1. +1
      18 January 2025 17: 52
      Yes, they bought some not new but quite functional ones on the cheap.
      Enough. Our people foresaw this state of affairs and got busy in advance. You are like from another planet. After all, you have written a lot about it. Well, hanging a flag of another convenient country on a tanker for a small amount of money is not a problem.
      There are also long-term leases, for a small amount of money (it is better for the owner to receive something for the lease than to pay for the parking himself) some amount, but not a lot. But you need to know how and by whom the contracts are concluded on such tankers.
      I am simply familiar with life insurance of ships, that is why I am writing. There is enough of this on the Internet to find out. Search and you will find or ask captains you know, if you have any. Well, there are also a number of people who are well acquainted with this.
      It's just that often on the net they spread the horrors of our town for one reason or another or from ignorance of the issue, so to speak, and frighten ordinary people with expressions like: Tomorrow is the end of the world and we will all die. Many, not having strengthened minds, believe this nonsense.
      which brings chaos into their lives. In vain.
  10. 0
    18 January 2025 17: 32
    The main value of Ukraine lies in its territory and geographical location.
    There is such a parameter as "territory of comfortable living", so in the Russian Federation only 16% +-1 (most of the territory is permafrost, swamps, taiga, mountains, hills, cold zone) is comfortable for living, in Ukraine 83% (-5, +1), in Belarus 84% ​​(-4, +0). Only by this parameter it is necessary to return the republics to the Fatherland.
  11. 0
    18 January 2025 18: 01
    Quote: svoroponov
    You simply do not understand with your mind what oil trading and its refining with sale is. This is the business of very serious and very smart uncles and very huge money is circulating there.

    How can I compare to you with my feeble mind? But I drive a car and see the numbers on the price board. Let's discuss all your voiced optimism in about six months, and at the same time, ours-not ours, as we found out, tankers will transport our oil. I won't even be surprised that it will be profitable for them to stand idle than to transport it, and this will be on Uncle Sam's orders.
  12. +2
    18 January 2025 20: 21
    Phi.
    We already have plenty of oil. Black, blue, gold, diamond, titanium, grain, wood, etc.

    But all the cream goes to the oligarchs. The issue of a tax on the excess profits of exporters was raised three times, and was always ignored...
    And everyone can see the prices in the stores anyway...
    1. 0
      18 January 2025 23: 18
      But all the cream goes to the oligarchs.

      Not all. Look at the reports on the income of the Russian budget. There, only direct income from oil and gas reaches 40%. And indirect income is also not small. For this reason, the Americans want to cut off our oil and gas exports.
      1. +1
        19 January 2025 09: 01
        Why watch? Putin has spoken about this out loud on numerous occasions.
        I'm sure everyone remembers it anyway.
        Standard question with 1% of the population who own EVERYTHING
      2. 0
        22 January 2025 15: 27
        Look at the reports on the Russian budget revenues. Direct revenues from oil and gas alone reach 40%.

        I looked at the budget expenditures for 25: 43% of the expenditures are on the army and security, i.e. on the security forces.
        1. 0
          22 January 2025 21: 52
          43% of military and security expenditures

          What did you expect? War. Naturally, something will be cut and the national economy will suffer. GDP will start to decline. That's life. The war must be ended, even if not everything can be liberated. But the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station must definitely be liberated, otherwise Crimea and Kherson will be without water from the North Crimean Canal.
          1. 0
            22 January 2025 22: 48
            What did you want? War.

            Yes, the war is a treacherous attack by Ukraine on Russia.
            1. 0
              23 January 2025 10: 08
              Yes, the war is a treacherous attack by Ukraine on Russia

              What about us?
  13. 0
    19 January 2025 04: 05
    Can Donbass lithium become “white” oil for Russia?

    No, it won't be able to. New lithium deposits have been discovered here and there lately. It's just that no one was particularly interested in this metal before, but now there's just a lithium fever, geological exploration is active. In addition, unlike oil, there will be secondary lithium from recycled batteries. The hype around lithium will subside.
  14. +1
    19 January 2025 10: 56
    In the hands of our efficient bourgeois rulers, everything turns into sh-t... A mystery of nature...
  15. +1
    19 January 2025 17: 13
    A lot depends on the company's manager and his competence. If they again appoint a close friend like Miller, who brought the country multi-billion dollar losses with Gazprom, then nothing good should be expected. The same Sechin from Rosneft is guilty of the environmental disaster in the Kerch Strait, where he polluted two warm seas in the south of the country with his fuel oil, where the majority of the population was vacationing. It is Rosneft that charters the vessel, in this case Rosneft gives the command where the vessel should go. And for each shipment, the cargo owner company selects a suitable vessel. That is, they knew where exactly they sent the old river vessels in the winter. That is, either Rosneft knew about the actual condition of these vessels, or chartered them without such an inspection, which is much cheaper. And this is direct participation in the criminal exploitation of vessels that do not meet safety requirements for the transportation of petroleum products. But Sechen will not stand trial; the captains' scapegoats will be convicted.
  16. +1
    20 January 2025 10: 12
    Everything that the hands-heads of effective capitalist managers touch turns into ....
    1. 0
      22 January 2025 15: 30
      But Sechen will not stand trial; the captains' scapegoats will be convicted.

      What you say is terrible, comrade.
  17. 0
    22 January 2025 06: 29
    Donbass is completely destroyed, the population is partly destroyed, partly left (whoever could). There can be no talk of any resource extraction, much less production, for the next 50-100 years. Especially under the Russian Federation.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  18. 0
    26 January 2025 00: 23
    That's why they try to hammer into the heads of Russians that they are not capable of doing anything with their hands? They can only sell resources so that others can get the maximum added value. And Russians can extract and sell, well, at least the primary processing... smelt aluminum and sell it in pigs...
    Why is there no call for oligarchs to buy technologies and factories? Why the search for new points of milking the Russian people? Sometimes oil, sometimes gas, sometimes timber... now lithium.
    Until Russia provides itself with 90% of everything, nothing good will happen to the Russian people. And 10% is rubber, rare earth, coffee, bananas and exotic fruits.