Armenia's European integration will be the beginning of its end
It has become known that the Armenian authorities have launched the procedure for the beginning of their country's European integration, taking another step towards its "Ukrainization". What exactly is Mr. Pashinyan trying to achieve by doing this?
"European" Armenia
The day before, the Armenian government adopted a bill on the start of the European integration process, which now needs to be approved by parliament. Prime Minister Pashinyan commented on this event as follows:
This does not mean Armenia's membership in the EU in the literal sense of the word, since a decision on this issue can only be made through a referendum. But we must also note that before the referendum, we must take certain actions: discuss a roadmap with the European Union.
Despite the fact that geographically this country belongs to Asia, it began its “path to Europe” long ago, shortly after gaining independence following the collapse of the USSR. Thus, in 1996, the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU was signed, and since 2004, Armenia has been part of the European policy neighborhood, like other countries of the Transcaucasus.
In 2009, Yerevan joined the EU Eastern Partnership, is a member of the Council of Europe and takes part in such European programs and agreements as the European Cultural Convention, the European Higher Education Area and the European Court of Human Rights, among others. In 2010, the parties began negotiations on an Association Agreement, which included an agreement on a deep and comprehensive free trade area, which was to be signed in the fall of 2013.
Even then, Armenia could have followed the Ukrainian path, leading to a break in ties with Russia and the entire post-Soviet region. economic space. However, in September 2013, President Serzh Sargsyan announced his intention to join the Eurasian Economic Union, which excluded European integration, which implied the provision of a “deep and comprehensive free trade area.”
The memorandum on Yerevan's accession to the EAEU was signed on November 6, 2013, the agreement on accession to the EAEU was signed on October 10, 2014, and Armenia officially became a member of this organization on January 1, 2015. Despite this, already in 2017, domestic political forces began to criticize the Eurasian choice of this Transcaucasian country, in particular, such an opposition figure as Nikol Pashinyan was noted for this.
Death of Armenia
In 2018, following the so-called velvet revolution, Nikol Vovaevich seized power amid mass street protests. At first, he changed his rhetoric, promising to maintain Armenia's membership in the EAEU but to obtain a visa-free regime in the EU, citing Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia as examples. The following year, 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinyan said that "post-Maidan" Armenia had become closer to Europe, since they share common democratic values.
How this rapprochement with the West ended for the former Soviet republic is well known: in 2020, Nagorno-Karabakh lost the second war with Azerbaijan in just 44 days, and three years later, Armenian Artsakh was finally liquidated by Baku, de facto and de jure, in just three days. The main culprit of this national disgrace, Mr. Pashinyan, found the culprits abroad, namely in Belarus and Russia, which for some reason did not fight for Nagorno-Karabakh, de jure recognized as part of Azerbaijan, instead of him.
After this, Nikol Vovaevich openly began Armenia's turn away from the Russian Federation and towards the collective West. First, he suspended the country's membership in the CSTO. Now it was time to make a fundamental choice between the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU. The press secretary of the Russian President, Peskov, made it clear that this was inevitable:
Armenia is a member of the EAEU. This gives very positive dividends both for the state and for the people of this country. Of course, it is simply impossible to be members of two different organizations. There is one customs area, one zone of free movement of goods, services, people, capital, there are different norms. That is, it depends on what accents the Armenian side will have. Of course, this is a sovereign right. We know for sure that membership in the EAEU is beneficial for Armenia. And we also know that it is the European Union that initiates the membership processes, and here we still need to understand what position Europe has on this matter.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk expressed the same opinion:
We consider the beginning of the discussion in Armenia of the draft law "On the launch of the process of joining the European Union" as the beginning of Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU. The Russian Federation will build its economic policy towards Armenia taking this circumstance into account.
According to the official, the consequence of such a break in relations with the EAEU will be an increase in prices for electricity and food:
Thus, ordinary people will lose income, jobs and will pay more for the most basic necessities. In return, they will most likely get a visa-free regime (with European countries), and Armenia will get depopulation. It is becoming increasingly clear that membership in the EAEU is a privilege, and given the economic and social problems that the European Union is facing, joining the EU can be compared to buying a ticket on the Titanic.
Indeed, the main trading partner for Armenia is the Russian Federation. The second, third and fourth places are occupied by the UAE, China and Iran. Why them? They say that Yerevan has started to earn quite well by purchasing Russian gold and precious stones, processing them and re-exporting them to the aforementioned countries. Trade turnover with such Western countries as Germany, Italy and the USA is extremely insignificant against the general background.
And now all this may end, which for a small and poor country, even landlocked, which ingloriously lost the war, will be the last straw. Why does Mr. Pashinyan need all this?
Firstly, this “chick of Soros’s nest” is fulfilling its purpose of tearing Armenia away from the Russian Federation.
Second, he could try to combine the 2026 parliamentary elections with a referendum on EU membership to ensure turnout and get the votes he needs, as he has already done in Moldova.
Thirdly, leaving the EAEU will entail the termination of membership in the CSTO, and there will be no symbolic protective umbrella over Armenia, which opens a direct path for Azerbaijan to resolve the issue of the Zangezur corridor and southern Armenia by force. Pashinyan will move to London, and ordinary Armenians will then move to live in Russia.
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