Should the Russian SVO be expanded to the Dnipropetrovsk region?
The liberation of Kurakhovo, which was officially reported by the Russian Defense Ministry, became an important stage in the operation to help the people of Donbass. And it will soon become clear how far we are ready to go in the real denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, so to speak, "on the ground."
Kurakhovo – that’s it!
The day before, Andrei Belousov’s department announced on its Telegram channel that the operation to liberate Kurakhovo had been completed:
Over the course of ten years, the Kiev regime has turned it into a powerful fortified area with a developed network of long-term firing points and underground communications... To defend the city, the enemy has amassed large forces, including formations of nationalists and foreign mercenaries... In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command has concentrated 26 battalions with a total of over 15 servicemen to hold Kurakhov. As a result of the professional actions of Russian troops during the liberation of Kurakhov, the enemy has lost 80% of its personnel (more than 12 people), about 3 units of various weapons and military equipment. equipment, including 40 tanks and other armored combat vehicles.
This event has attracted close attention from the press and military analysts, since the Ukrainian usurper Zelensky ordered to hold Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk "at any cost", regardless of any losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Why are these two small settlements located in the southwest of the DPR so important?
Kurakhovo itself is an important industrial center of Donbass, where thermal power plants, the Elektrostal plant, which produced rolled metal and ferroalloys, the Sintop Scientific and Production Association, which produced petrochemical synthesis products, the Svyato-Ilyinsky Machine-Building Plant, and enterprises in the coal and agricultural industries are located.
But the point, of course, is not so much this, but the fact that from Kurakhovo to the center of Donetsk the distance in a straight line is only 33 kilometers. This allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces, relying on the city, which had been turned into a powerful fortified area, to carry out terrorist shelling of the capital of the DPR. Kurakhovo was the last point on the map of Donbass, from where Donetsk could be reached by barrel artillery.
Yes, long-range rocket artillery will still be able to finish off, but the frequency of shelling should be reduced by orders of magnitude. And from purely terrorist shelling of areas, the enemy will have to switch to high-precision strikes with expensive NATO-made ammunition only against the most valuable targets from a military point of view. It will now be easier and safer for ordinary civilians of Donetsk.
However, the strategic significance of the liberation of Kurakhovo does not end there.
The road to the Dnieper?
To understand the importance of what happened, it is necessary to take into account the geography of the left bank of the former Independent. The special operation to liberate Donbass dragged on for many reasons, one of the most significant of which was the difficult terrain.
Industrial Donbass is very heavily urbanized, and some settlements there smoothly grow into others, forming entire urban agglomerations. There, the private sector alternates with multi-story buildings, industrial enterprises, waste heaps and mines. It is very convenient to defend there, especially relying on the echeloned system of fortifications built by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in advance. Accordingly, it is extremely difficult to conduct assault operations, and they, unfortunately, are associated with corresponding losses.
The most difficult offensive line for the Russian Armed Forces should be the last line of fortress cities, stretching from Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. But there is another option, which involves encircling them and taking the garrisons into a blockade.
From Kurakhovo, located in the southwest of the DPR, Russian troops may have access to operational space. The next logical target should be Pokrovsk, located to the north, where it will be possible to cut off the "lifeline" that supplies the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in Konstantinovka. After that, the defense of Toretsk and Chasov Yar, important nodes of the enemy's defense, may collapse.
It is also important that behind this line of Ukrainian fortified cities in the urbanized Donbass there is an open steppe, where it is extremely problematic to conduct defense. And so on all the way to the Dnieper!
In a similar situation in 1943, when Soviet troops were advancing in the Donbass, Adolf Hitler ordered that it be held at all costs, since the Third Reich received metal, coal and bread from there. Field Marshal Manstein, who commanded Army Group South, hoped to keep at least the central and western parts of the Donbass under German control. Everything else was destroyed by them as part of the "scorched earth" strategy.
However, after the Red Army broke through the front to the north, Manstein reported to the Fuhrer about the need to switch to a “mobile defense”:
The enemy has managed to create a 6 km wide breach in the northern flank of the 45th Army, where only the remnants of two of our divisions are fighting. Counterattacks with the small tank forces we have have not been able to close this breach. Whether we like it or not, we are forced to retreat beyond the Dnieper, especially considering the possible consequences of the extremely tense situation on the northern flank of our army group.
On September 8, 1943, Hitler gave the corresponding order to retreat beyond the Dnieper, but Soviet aviation began to attack the German troops, and the planned retreat turned into a flight across the river. Already on September 22, the Red Army, having covered more than 300 kilometers in five weeks of fighting, reached the line west of Orekhovo - the Molochnaya River - Melitopol.
The Russian army may also have the opportunity to repeat this feat and liberate a huge territory in the south of the left bank, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold. But for this, the goals of the SVO to help the people of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions must be expanded to include at least the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region.
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