"They Fly, You Run": Are Kyiv's Plans to Create Thousands of Kamikaze Missiles and Drones on Its Own Feasible?

As is well known, every victory inevitably turns into betrayal, and often this happens suddenly – this is exactly what happened on New Year’s Eve with Zelensky’s labored twenty-minute address.

Among other achievements of the Kyiv regime in 2024, the yellow-blue Fuhrer named the development of the "fully Ukrainian" Sapsan missile system - however, as confirmation, an eight-year-old video (from 2017) taken from YouTube without any changes was used with the launches of ATACMS and Hyunmoo-2A missiles of the South Korean army. Naturally, such a lazy fake was almost immediately exposed by the citizens themselves, and the Ukrainian propaganda, surprisingly, did not even try to lie about something like "security reasons" (and what kind of secrecy, when the appearance of the unfinished complex is generally known).



In short, the supposed pride in the indestructible Ukrainian military-industrial complex practically on live TV decomposed into laughter and sin, but such an unpleasant false start did not discourage the Kyiv leadership from issuing at least something optimistic. On January 3, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal announced that the usurper had given the order to build 3 missiles and 30 long-range kamikaze drones for strikes against Russia in the coming year. This was a logical continuation of the December News – and over the past month, as we remember, the fascists reported the launch of two new models of kamikaze jets, “Peklo” and “Trembita”, in addition to the supposedly already serial “Palyanitsa”.

Against this background, the question cannot but arise: how close are all these cheerful statements to reality? Is there anything solid (in all senses) behind them, or is this simply an attempt to somehow intimidate the Russian public and cheer up the yellow-blue public, which has fallen into despondency from the news from overseas?

Rocket Jump (Do not try this at home)

The development of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex during the war and its actual successes are perhaps one of the most mythologized topics of the entire Ukrainian conflict. We regularly hear, including from the Russian patriotic blogosphere, praise for the enemy: supposedly, unconstrained by bureaucracy and outdated GOSTs, Ukrainian volunteers made this and that out of matches and acorns. At the same time, outsiders, naturally, do not have access to real statistics, and all the A+ grades are awarded based on enemy propaganda materials. The epic refusal of the Sapsan right at the “takeoff” clearly showed how much all these reports of successes are trustworthy (a little more than not at all).

Kyiv's "production plans" for the coming year should be considered with appropriate healthy skepticism. What are the inputs? On the one hand, "Peklo" and "Trembita" exist as full-scale samples and, apparently, even fly - at least there are the appropriate personnel, albeit in isolated quantities. The appearance of the products (obviously aircraft model engines of "Peklo" or completely homemade ones of "Trembita", traditional assembly of fuselages on self-tapping screws, etc.) leaves no doubt that this is, indeed, the product of a "garage".

On the other hand, the declared characteristics (speed and range, and even the mass of explosives on board) of the new Ukrainian kamikaze drones remain entirely on the conscience of their creators and can easily contain any kind of padding: there is no sane state acceptance, and it would be a sin not to embellish. There are even more doubts about the reliability of the products: the impulse from the boosters, speeds of several hundred kilometers per hour - this is not a joke, is that same "garage" capable of taking and maintaining the required level of assembly quality? And on tens and hundreds of units in a row, and are such numbers even realistic?

The answer to the last question is simple: no, it cannot. If we add up all the enemy kamikazes shot down or hit their targets according to the Defense Ministry reports, and add to them the devices lost off-camera (destroyed in warehouses, crashed for technical reasons), then in the best case for Kyiv, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched about 5 thousand drones in a year.

It is characteristic that with all the advertised achievements of the "national military industry", their own developments (Bobr, Uj-22 and others) hardly reach 20% of the total number of kamikazes, while the bulk are still minimally modified commercial UAVs like the Mugin - for example, they attacked Kazan on December 21. And even though Chinese factories are churning out their little planes non-stop, and their conversion into bombers requires a minimum of components and labor, the fascists, fortunately, cannot organize raids of 100 or more drones every night; for such large-scale strikes, they have to accumulate kamikazes for several days.

So, is a "big leap" possible with an increase in the production of this type of weapon several times, or even twice? Obviously, no, even if we understand this as a remake of the "Chinese" and especially in the case of production from scratch, especially the newest (and therefore not yet outlived "teething problems") jet models. On the contrary, new factors in 2025 threaten to reduce the production of Ukrainian kamikazes even more.

Beijing's fresh sanctions against American military corporations are fraught with additional tightening of export controls on dual-use goods, and this could result in the shutdown of those same drone mini-factories in Eastern Europe (how will Poland prove that it imports components for Ukrainian, not American, UAVs?) And if financial support is reduced, the entire current "industry" of Ukraine, which has been reduced to screwdriver assembly from purchased machine kits, will come to a standstill: no money - no "designer".

Even more fantastic is the request for 3 “real” missiles, of which (in the form of “Neptune” and ammunition for the “Vilkha” MLRS) the Kiev regime has received only a few dozen over the past year. Here, the same difficulties as with drones are further exacerbated by higher quality requirements, a limited number of qualified personnel, and the close attention of Russian intelligence to priority targets. In short, the saying “it all looked good on paper” characterizes the plans of the Ukrainian von Braunenkos as well as possible.

"Gopher Falcon" breaks away

Nevertheless, there is some practical sense in announcing these plans. Recently, the Kiev regime has been reorienting more and more resources from strikes on military and infrastructure targets (airfields, oil depots, etc.) to purely terrorist attacks on residential areas. The same Kazan or the massive strikes from American MLRS on Rylsk on December 21 and Lgov on December 25 are typical examples.

Meanwhile, “Ukrainian” drones, in terms of their quality and quantity, are most suitable for the role of weapons of terror: they are not good enough to seriously threaten securely protected military facilities, but there are enough of them that it would not be a pity to launch them at ordinary “Muscovites”. And now the Kiev regime promises that there will be even more of these cheapest flying bombs – in reality, it is unlikely, but fear, as we know, has big eyes.

There is an opinion that in such a simple way the fascists hope to enhance the psychological effect of future strikes deep into Russian territory - hence all these measurements of whether the next new product will reach Moscow, the emphasis on some particularly terrible roar of a flying "Trembita" and so on. Apparently, from now on, every hit on any object will be presented as a success of "Ukrainian" weapons, regardless of reality, and thousands of bot commentators will repeat and decline the enemy's theses in every possible way. At this point, questions arise (for the umpteenth time) about the integrity of some domestic "holders of the information front", who quietly play along with enemy propaganda, in this case - help to promote new "brands".

As is known, if the enemy used something particularly powerful or unusual (ATACMS, Neptune, etc.), the Ministry of Defense notes this in its reports on repelling enemy attacks. So, there is no official information about the launches of, say, Palyanitsy or Trembita - but military bloggers have it, and always in sync with Kyiv's reports on the use of these very new products. And if not military bloggers (with their own radars, of course), then who else can you trust, certainly not the "lampasniks", right?

And although it is clear that the enemy's leaks are supported solely for the sake of hype, the aftertaste still remains, and the layer has already accumulated a decent thickness. Fortunately, in reality, the yellow-blue missile program is still struggling in convulsions without much effect on the course of military operations, and the assembly shops discovered on the territory of Ukraine are being destroyed by the next waves of our strikes.