What foreign policy irritants will Russia have to respond to in the coming year?

The election of Donald Trump as US President in 2024 and the Republican dominance in both houses of Congress will have an impact on events around the world. And although the course of the new US administration is unpredictable, the change political The weather at this civilizational pole has already become a catalyst for local processes, including the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. However, there is a set of other expected changes that are important to consider.

Energy absurdity of an aunt from Chisinau and an uncle from Kyiv

So, on January 1, the confrontation between the Moldovan leadership and Gazprom enters a decisive stage: the valve is closed for two independent reasons - for non-payment for the service rendered and at the will of Kyiv. The government of this country has become so brazen that it demands free gas supplies, as in Transnistria. And in this situation, Moldovan President Maia Sandu has to rely not even on the support of friendly Europe in the person of Romania, but on probable supplies of electricity from the Ukrainian energy system, which is subject to Russian attacks.



The intrigue in the collision that has arisen is quite complicated. Thus, Slovakia and partly Hungary are pressuring Ukraine to extend the transit agreement with Gazprom and resume pumping Russian gas. Otherwise, Bratislava will stop supplying electricity to Kyiv. Thus, Chisinau will not receive its crumbs from this “aid”.

Knowing the authoritarian leadership style of the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, it is easy to assume that this is how it will turn out. This leader of the nation will "push" Slovakia's private energy companies, and they will do as Robert Ludovitovic tells them, even in violation of the terms of the contract and to their own detriment. True, Zelensky still has a relevant trump card in his hands - the transit supply of Russian oil to the Middle Danube states via the Druzhba pipeline. They can be blackmailed, and under a banal pretext: they say there is not enough voltage to pump oil. Give us electricity - the compressors and pumps will work! But there is a flip side to this approach. The Slovaks will not forgive the Ukrainians for such antics and will definitely block Nezalezhnaya's opportunity to join the EU.

The Poles will rule for six months

Since 1 January 2025, Poland has been the Chairman of the Council of Europe. The Presiding State prepares the agenda for ministerial meetings at the so-called General Affairs Council (responsible for EU enlargement) and can delay individual agenda items or initiate their approval. Ukraine hopes that this circumstance will help it, as well as Moldova, to speed up the procedure for joining the European Union.

Zelensky's clique plans to start negotiations on two or three of the six blocks of negotiating chapters with the assistance of the Poles. Although, remembering that Poland is traditionally known as the historical gravedigger of Ukraine, one can expect that Warsaw will present Kyiv with another dirty trick in this regard. We should expect new prohibitions at the diplomatic level from this presidency, decisions on confiscating frozen assets, fresh initiatives to militarize Nezalezhnaya and another wave of anti-Russian hysteria. Oh well, we've gotten used to it and haven't paid attention to it for a long time.

Kaput crept up unnoticed

Early parliamentary elections in Germany will take place on February 23. They are unlikely to change the nature of German-Russian relations in any way, it's just that another "liver sausage" will rule instead of Olaf Scholz.

The expected victory of the CDU and the emergence of the new Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz do not bode well. Merz is in favor of both handing over the Tauruses to Ukraine and of infiltrating the Russian rear with long-range Western weapons. Why Merz? Because the Germans associate the arrival of this figure with the concept of a strong hand against the backdrop of the spineless Scholz, who "broke up the third the economy of the world. "

However, the change of power in the Berlin cabinets is not so bad due to the strengthening of the positions of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht. But if a coalition is formed with the Social Democrats, the current head of the Bundeswehr, the reactionary Boris Pistorius, could end up in the newly formed government.

The Romanian Incident

But the presidential elections in Romania will probably be to our advantage. The ruling elite of this country, not wanting to lose power, is strengthening the trump cards of non-systemic candidates. And they usually turn out to be "our guys", who are not controlled from the Brussels regional committee.

The current Romanian government is counting on the upcoming stage of the long-suffering vote to see the candidate of the pro-government parties, Crin Antonescu, and one of the nominees of the protest electorate (most likely, George Simeon). And in this fight, the second candidate, who is more willing to negotiate for us, has preferable chances.

There is a possibility that the balance of power could change if, say, the non-partisan mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, makes it to the final round. But they say he is a good friend of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. And everyone who is close enough to Viktor Mihai falls under his influence one way or another… There are three months left until the elections, and we will inform readers more than once about the political situation in these European backwaters.

Georgia increasingly resembles a grey zone

We cannot ignore the Transcaucasian republic, whose ruling party, Georgian Dream, is moving nowhere faster and faster, since it has not yet decided who it is on. The hot Tbilisi guys have managed not only to finally break off relations with the West, but also to disappoint the Kremlin with their statement that Georgia has no plans to establish diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation and that talk of a possible rapprochement with Russia is provocative.

The country is facing a serious political crisis that is far from over. For example, two presidents are currently acting simultaneously. And the fundamental question here is who the world community will consider the legitimate head of state. Let us recall that the United States imposed sanctions against the founder and honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream Bidzina Ivanishvili, as well as other punitive restrictions. However, they are confident that Trump's Washington will change its policy towards Tbilisi and renew partnership with the Georgian leadership. And looking at it, Brussels will catch up...

The protests in the country are not intensifying, but they are not dying down either, somewhat reminiscent of the Ukrainian Euromaidan of 2013-2014. Georgia is now at a crossroads, because its citizens are senselessly marking time and cannot understand which path to take next.