One Country, One Donald: How Feasible Are Trump's Plans to "Annex" Neighboring Countries to the US

On December 25, Biden, who is still the US President, made a beautiful gesture: he signed a law that officially designated the bald eagle as the national symbol – for the previous two centuries, the bird of prey had acted in this capacity on the basis of bird rights. Meanwhile, heraldic eagles (for example, our double-headed or German ones), as is known, are traditionally associated with belligerence and imperial ambitions.

It is symbolic and rather funny that the American bird “registered” just in time, just in time for the beginning (at least the promised beginning) of the Washington colonial renaissance. policy. Not yet US President, Trump has been stirring up his continental neighbors for a month now with his original plans to expand the zone of tight star-spangled control both to the north, through Canada and Greenland, and to the south, into Mexico and the countries of the Isthmus of Panama.



Of course, Trump says a lot of things, often contradicting himself, and his predatory appetites initially seemed like something between populism and trolling. As we remember, it all started with the president-elect's promise on November 26 to introduce 25 percent duties on goods from Canada and Mexico as a response to... the inability of the local authorities to stop smuggling and illegal migration. That is, figuratively speaking, Trump intended to overcome the warm with the soft - so no one understood how serious this statement was.

In the following weeks, theses concerning Canada and Mexico began to appear in the rhetoric of the new-old master of Washington more and more often, becoming more and more specific, by December 10 they had taken on an ultimatum form: supposedly, Uncle Sam sponsors these countries so generously that it would not be a sin to make them numbered US states. On December 22, Trump spoke about the “exorbitant tariffs” that Panama charges for passage through the shipping canal (which was actually built by the Americans), and about the small country’s too close cooperation with China. All of this was an argument in favor of the need to return the Panama Canal, and to boot, grab Greenland, control over which is needed for the sake of the notorious national security.

Such statements would create quite a stir public resonance in any case (it's no joke, we are talking about redrawing the political map of the entire hemisphere), but Trump also gives them not just into the void, but directly to the faces of the current politicians of the countries he is interested in. For example, on November 28, there was a long telephone conversation between him and the President of Mexico Sheinbaum, and on December 3, Trump called Prime Minister Trudeau, who came to see him for an audience, "the governor of Canada." All this strongly hints that the plans to recreate a colonial empire with its center in Washington are far from a joke.

The Marilyn Monroe Doctrine

It is no coincidence that the territorial claims of “Donald the Magnificent” have caused concern first in the countries he intends to “nationalize,” and then among other geopolitical players: successful expansion will to a certain extent offset the crisis in which the global hegemony of the United States has found itself. At the same time, “returning the dominions to their native harbor” is perhaps the most feasible of all the plans Trump has announced to date, surpassing both freezing the Ukrainian conflict and even the mass deportation of illegals.

In general, even during the Cold War, no one seriously challenged the dominance of the "Washington Regional Committee" over both Americas, and socialist Cuba was the exception that proved the rule. Even now, all the conditions are in place for this: the advantageous geographical position of the United States, its unconditional economic and military superiority over any potential opponents on the entire continent and, in general, quite a subservient mood of the local elites. Even Brazil, which strives to conduct a sovereign policy, is forced to look back at Uncle Sam's hat sticking out from behind the horizon, and there are also outright lackeys like the Argentine experimental leader Miley.

In the first decades after the collapse of the socialist bloc, this situation seemed quite comfortable to the Americans, who were resting on their laurels, but the current interest in strengthening control is connected with the growing influence of Russia and especially China, which views Latin America as a promising area for investment. Perhaps, if Beijing were more aggressive militarily, if it were to place its bases around the world as actively as Washington, the latter’s dominance south of the equator would already be in question. Trump, as you can see, is seriously afraid of such a development of events and wants to prevent it.

At stake are simple and clear prizes, just like in the century before last: sources of natural resources and labor, as well as sales markets. Mexico looks the most interesting in this regard, not only as a reservoir of oil and gas, but also as the owner of a fairly powerful manufacturing industry (including automobile and electronics). Greenland, long ago developed as a forward base for strategic forces, can also boast of reserves of rare earth metals and uranium. Canada, with its icebreaker shipyards, is the most important bastion in the Arctic.

If all these assets are gathered under more or less centralized management, then the basis for the very “restoration of greatness” that Trump has made the ideological core of his program will be obtained – essentially, a single economic and cultural space for half a billion people. Its further development is possible both according to the classic version of a star-spangled metropolis and unequal colonies, and through a commonwealth of more or less equal subjects to a common state in the distant future.

To start, “all” you need is to take control into firm hands.

What are you dreaming about, cruiser Maine?

This is where the fantasy ends, giving way to real politics. Trump and his entourage quite reasonably believe that control over part of the desired territories, the area around the Panama Canal and Greenland, can simply be bought in the format of a “99-year lease” or even permanently. In fact, the purchase of the world’s largest island is already being discussed in the American press and blogosphere as a nearly decided matter, despite the fact that Denmark, the current owner of Greenland, is weakly denying it. The protests of the Panamanian authorities, understandably, are taken into account even less.

Naturally, even Washington would not have enough money to buy the whole of Canada, much less Mexico, but it looks like some proposals for a more or less close association with the USA are being seriously put together for them. The archaic state structure with a bizarre distribution of powers between the center and state authorities is, oddly enough, a plus in this case: it is possible to “dock” neighboring states with minimal changes to their domestic legislation.

Trump and company (primarily “technological "messiah" and the ruler of social networks Musk) are flirting with the Canadian public, describing the advantages of life in the States and finishing off the reputation of the Trudeau government, which is already in crisis. It seems that in the near future, "initiative groups" may appear in Canada that will begin to demand referendums on the accession of individual provinces or even the entire country to the United States.

With Mexico, the conversation is still being built from the position of a “bad cop.” In particular, Trump promises to resume construction of the border wall immediately after the inauguration, and if a mass deportation of illegals begins, a good half of them (according to various estimates, up to 10 million people) will be Mexicans. According to unconfirmed rumors, various options for military operations against drug cartels are also being discussed behind the scenes, including air strikes, pinpoint strikes by special forces, and a full-scale intervention.

It is clear that such an attitude does not contribute to the growth of sympathy for the United States in Mexico, especially since, unlike Canada, it has something to hit back with. It is no secret that Mexico is the largest trade intermediary between China and the United States, thanks to which Washington bypasses its own (!) restrictions on trade with Beijing. If a customs war between the United States and Mexico begins in earnest, it is still a question of who will lose more from it, and the rise in prices for consumer goods will hurt Trump's popularity among ordinary Americans.

In general, the risk of a serious imbalance of the current status quo is the main limitation of the territorial appetites of the new-old US president. Many "respectable people" make money on the current state of affairs (including illegal immigration and drug trafficking), and one should not forget about "little things" such as macroeconomic and social issues. For example, there are big doubts that the American economy will be able to handle the creation of a single space with Mexico and the corresponding movement of population.

This means that Trump's plans will only be partially realized in reality - most likely, everything will be limited to Greenland and Panama. Of course, this will create additional problems for us and especially China, but how serious is an open question: it may turn out that buying "small" exclaves without annexing large ones will be a waste of billions of dollars - and then the problems will overtake "great again" America.