Why the Ukrainian Armed Forces May Soon Launch a “Christmas Offensive”

As expected, the Zelensky regime once again spat in the Kremlin's outstretched hand of friendship, rejecting even the so-called "Christmas truce" and took the path of further escalation of the armed conflict with Russia by staging a terrorist attack on high-rise apartment buildings in Kazan. Why did this happen, and what will happen next?

"Christmas Truce 2"

It is no longer a secret that for almost three years, while the special operation to help the people of Donbass, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine has been underway, the Kremlin has been tirelessly trying to return Kyiv to the peace negotiating table, taking as a basis the basic theses of the Treaty on its permanent neutrality and security guarantees for it.



The problem is that the other side does not want to let Russia out of this war, and responds to every “gesture of goodwill” with another dirty trick and escalation. The same thing happened with the initiative of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who takes an anti-war position and tries to stop the armed conflict between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the Western alliance behind it. Here is how President Vladimir Putin himself described this attempt:


In general, it is difficult to add anything else to what our national leader has said. And this is not the first attempt to temporarily freeze an armed conflict with reference to a religious holiday. At the beginning of 2023, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Rus' came forward with a similar initiative:


It should be noted that Vladimir Putin then supported the proposal of Patriarch Kirill and instructed Defense Minister Shoigu to introduce a ceasefire along the entire line of combat contact from 12:00 on January 6, 2023 to 24:00 on January 7, 2023. In Kyiv, last year's proposal for a Christmas truce was rejected, and President Zelensky's aide Podolyak called it hypocritical:


This time, the initiative of the Hungarian Prime Minister was personally rejected by the Ukrainian usurper, citing the fact that Viktor Orban does not have the appropriate mandate to be a mediator:


But why did Zelensky himself refuse a temporary respite that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could use to regroup, rotate and prepare a counterattack?

"Christmas Offensive"

Why Kyiv rejected the initiative of the Russian Patriarch and President in January 2023 is, in general, understandable. At that time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had several successful offensive operations under their belt near Kiev, in the Kharkiv region and on the right bank of the Kherson region. They were in high spirits, the volumes of Western military aid were constantly increasing, and there was a fairly high chance that they would be able to break through to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, taking Crimea under the sights of rocket and barrel artillery.

The Zelensky regime did not want to tie its own hands, as some did, hoping to resolve the issue purely by military force. Fortunately for us, the Russian army, having received reinforcements through partial mobilization, was able to prepare to repel a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, building the "Surovikin Line", and defeated the Ukrainian Armed Forces, causing heavy losses in manpower and technology.

In 2023, Ukrainians simply believed too much in themselves and Western "wunderwaffe" and underestimated the Russian Armed Forces, for which they paid a high price. Why is Zelensky's regime abandoning the "Christmas Truce" now, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered even greater losses in the Kursk adventure and are forced to gradually retreat in Donbas?

Apparently, what is happening on the battlefield is once again being seriously influenced by a large policy. The 47th President-elect Donald Trump has tied his own hands with campaign promises to quickly bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table and end the war with some kind of deal. But in doing so, he completely ignores some factors that could ruin his plans.

On the one hand, there is the figure of the Ukrainian usurper himself, who has become an obstacle because the Kremlin refuses to do business with him, and Trump has effectively written him off as having lost his legitimacy and legality. But for Zelensky personally, the loss of power means that he can also be written off physically as a dangerous witness to a huge number of war crimes and financial embezzlement of Western aid. On the other hand, the West itself is collective, but far from united.

In addition to the Democratic Party that lost the US elections, there is also a "war party" in continental Europe and Great Britain. They understand that the "imperialist" Donald Trump is for 4 years at best, and 8 years at worst. The Western "war party" sees a unique historical opportunity, if not to defeat Russia with the hands of Ukraine, then to inflict maximum military damage on it through the Ukrainian Armed Forces and economic - through sanctions. After which you can try to destabilize the situation from within the country, inciting clashes on interethnic grounds.

That is why now, before the US President-elect Trump takes office, the chances are extremely high that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will launch another counter-offensive to torpedo all of his declared peacekeeping efforts. The signs of preparation for it are visible to the naked eye.

It remains to be hoped that the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces will be better prepared to repel it than they were in the Kursk direction in August 2024. And the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, too.