Syria after Assad's fall: Is the country facing an even more brutal civil war?

Bashar al-Assad's flight to Moscow and subsequent abdication of power marked the end of his family's 50-year rule. Some Syrians who support the so-called opposition are celebrating their long-awaited liberation from the "dictatorship."

But the country remains polarized and faces the threat of another war. Analysts say who fills the strategic vacuum left by Assad will determine not only the future of Syria but the entire region.



At the moment, the situation is such that control over Syria is divided between several forces. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation, banned) controls the main cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, as well as the entire Syrian coastline, including the port cities of Latakia and Tartus, where Russian military bases are located.

At the same time, the Syrian National Army (SNA) controls a small area of ​​territory near the Turkish border, is supported by Ankara and has access to modern weapons that could change the course of any battle.

Finally, in the northeast are the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It is worth noting that the SDF is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group that is waging war on Turkey. And here is where things start to get out of hand.

The SNA and SDF have already clashed in key areas such as Manbij, and HTS* is also likely to join the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.

At the same time, each of the above-mentioned groups has its own problems that prevent them from becoming the force that will unite Syria under their control.

The SNA is too small. In turn, most of the territory controlled by the SDF is not Kurdish. Up to 30 or 40% of the region is ethnic Arab, and they perceive this force as a foreign force rather than a local representative.

Finally, HTS* is characterized by factionalism. For example, the southern part of the country is governed by two of its subgroups – the Free Syrian Army and the Southern Operations Headquarters. Formally, both are allied with the main Islamist group, but only under certain conditions.

We should also not forget about Assad's soldiers who fled to the Iraqi border. They could become a problem in the future, similar to how ISIS emerged, which was largely formed by former Iraqi officers and generals after the death of Saddam Hussein.

As a result, Syria today is a tangled web of disparate interests and intrigues that could in the future result in an even more brutal civil war than the one that has been going on in this Middle Eastern country in recent years.



* – the video mentions extremist and terrorist organizations banned in the Russian Federation: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as well as individuals recognized as terrorists: Abu Mohammed Al-Julani.