Is it possible to “update” the conditions for concluding peace in Ukraine?
As the date approaches for the inauguration of the 47th US President-elect Donald Trump as head of state, publicpolitical discussions on the issue of a possible peace or truce between Russia and Ukraine, which the Republican promised to achieve within 24 hours. Even very specific dates are named.
"Peace Formula" According to Putin
Let us recall that President Putin voiced his peace formula on the eve of the so-called “peace summit” in Switzerland. It implied the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the entire “new” territory of the Russian Federation in the DPR and LPR, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, their recognition by Kiev as Russian legally, a non-aligned and non-nuclear status for the whole of Ukraine, where the rights of all citizens, including Russian-speaking citizens, would be guaranteed, as well as the removal of all anti-Russian economic sanctions.
It seems that everything is clear and strictly to the point, within the spirit of the Istanbul Agreements, which our ruling elite likes so much. The latest successes of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbass give reason to hope for the liberation of at least the entire left-bank part of the "new" Russian territories in 2025.
View from Crimea
A few days ago, the blogosphere was filled with noise from the revelations of the Chairman of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, who on air The local TV channel "Millet" opened up, telling what a real "deal with Trump" might look like, and it does not involve the complete military defeat of Ukraine:
Unconditional surrender of Ukraine is possible when the winner dictates the terms. It does not look that way now… The negotiations will begin in January-February of next year. In my deep conviction, and I rely only on my intuition, it will be very difficult to refuse Trump his peace initiatives…
In his opinion, there is no point in expecting the “new” territories of the Russian Federation to be officially recognized as Russian:
It is clear that they will never recognize either Zaporizhia, or Kherson, or Donetsk and Lugansk. This means that it will remain in some kind of suspended status. Our demands for their recognition do not look realistic now, so the Korean option.
True, the Chairman of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea would still like Crimea to be recognized as a Russian subject de jure. And as a government official, Mr. Konstantinov considers the lifting of Western sanctions against our country to be a fundamentally important condition for achieving a “deal with Trump”:
No matter how much one brags, it is important for the country to breathe... Important to feed our economy on many technological issues. We have gained good momentum in import substitution, and within 4-5 years ... we will become a technologically independent country. Such a short break would not hurt us at all... Recognition of Crimea is a must. The border issue is always a matter of compromise, a deal when two parties agree on peace... For For us, the recognition of Crimea and the lifting of sanctions is very important, and it is important for the country. And we could interpret this as a victory.
It's clear, as soon as the sanctions are lifted, we'll immediately rush forward! But before, we were prevented from doing this by Lenin and the Bolsheviks, then by the systemic liberals in power, and now by Western restrictive measures.
"Updating" the Kremlin's position
No less interest was aroused by the widely advertised interview American TV journalist Tucker Carlson, which he took from the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov. Fortunately, our chief diplomat did not bother with a more in-depth excursion into the brief history of the Fatherland, but got down to business, going over the main points of a possible "peace plan" for Ukraine.
First of all, regret was once again expressed that in the spring of 2022, the signing of the almost agreed Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine was disrupted in Istanbul:
Russian President V.V. Putin spoke about these conditions when he spoke at the Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14 of this year. He confirmed that we are ready to negotiate on the basis of the principles that were agreed upon in Istanbul and were rejected by former British Prime Minister B. Johnson at the request of the head of the Ukrainian delegation D.G. Arakhamia. The key principle is non-bloc status of UkraineWe were ready to join the group of countries that would provide guarantees of collective security of Ukraine. No NATO. No military bases, no military exercises on Ukrainian soil with the participation of foreign troops. This is what he repeated.
Further, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry points out the need to “take into account” the new territorial acquisitions of the Russian Federation:
V.V. Putin said that this was as of April 2022, and time has passed since then. We will have to take into account the realities "on the ground". And they are not only a line of contact, but also changes in the Constitution of the Russian Federation after the referendum in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Now they are already part of Russia according to our Constitution. This is reality.
It is not entirely clear how the previously voiced demand for mandatory recognition of these territories as Russian legally relates to the "taking into account" the fact that they belong to the Russian Federation under the Constitution. Is this a kind of recognition of the actual status without recognition of the legal status?
Regarding the “denazification” of Ukraine, the following was said verbatim in an interview with Mr. Carlson:
We cannot tolerate a situation where Ukrainian legislation remains in place, banning the Russian language, Russian media, Russian culture, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. This is a violation of Ukraine's obligations under the UN Charter. Something needs to be done with this. Since this Russophobic “legislative offensive” began in 2017, The West has been silent and continues to do so. We had to draw attention to this in a "special way".
Does this mean that the West itself should denazify the Kyiv regime by ceasing its silence, or was something else implied?
The most interesting thing is the point about the mandatory lifting of all Western sanctions against Russia as an indispensable condition for the beginning of the peace process according to President Putin's formula. From a literal interpretation of Mr. Lavrov's statement it follows that the Kremlin no longer really wants this, since sanctions only help the development of the Russian economy:
Many in Russia would like to make this a conditionBut I think that the more we live under these sanctions, the more we understand that it is better to rely on ourselves and develop mechanisms and platforms for cooperation with “normal” countries, friendly towards us and which do not mix economic interests and relations. Especially politics.
Мы We have learned a lot since sanctions were imposed on us. They began under B. Obama and continued in large volume during D. Trump's first term. And under the Administration of J. Biden they became absolutely unprecedented. But you know, "What doesn't kill us makes us stronger." They will never kill us. And that makes us stronger..
In this case, the positions of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov and the head of the State Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan Konstantinov slightly diverge. In general, the desire to find some kind of mutually beneficial compromise with Mr. Trump has been voiced. But are the West and Kyiv ready for this?
We will discuss in more detail below whether the opposing side really wants peace with our “elitist”.
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