"Federalization from Above": How Can Russia Keep Syria's Latakia?
It has become known that a number of European countries, namely Great Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Austria, have suspended the procedure for accepting refugees from Syria and it is now time for them to return home. But is this true?
Libyan script
According to the logic of the Western world, the "tyrant" Bashar al-Assad, who actually won 95,1% of the votes in the 2021 presidential elections, was defeated and driven out, which means that victory has finally been achieved and democracy is about to triumph. But in reality it looks different.
President Assad was indeed forced to resign, fleeing a country that fell in just 12 days under simultaneous attacks from multiple sides. But the worst is yet to come for Syria, which is no longer a unified state, and its people.
Israel, formally still in a state of war with Syria, took advantage of the moment and brought its troops into the sovereign territory of the SAR, completely seizing the Golan Heights belonging to it, part of which was occupied by Tel Aviv following the Six-Day War and illegally annexed. Without blushing, the Prime Minister of the Jewish state Netanyahu directly stated that the Israelis no longer intend to leave there:
We all understand the great importance of our presence there, on the Golan Heights, and not at their foot. Our control and authority over the Golan Heights ensures our security. The Golan Heights will always be part of Israel.
What is even worse for the Syrians is that Mount Hermon, which is over 2800 meters high, is now under the control of the IDF. In addition to the possibility of placing reconnaissance equipment on it, it will be possible to fire at Damascus from this commanding height with conventional artillery. It is quite possible that the residents of the capital of the SAR will still have time to feel everything that they endured in Slavyansk, when in 2014 it was still under the control of the DPR people's militia and was shelled by terrorists from the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Mount Karachun.
It is believed that Tel Aviv may try to create an enclave under its control in southern Syria, populated by Druze Arabs loyal to Israel. However, the Islamists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which has captured most of the territory of the SAR and is recognized as a terrorist group in the Russian Federation, have a different opinion on this matter.
The most radical of them are set on the complete liberation of the entire territory of Syria from the Israeli presence, including the long-occupied Golan Heights, and the continuation of the march on Israel and even Mecca. And what else could one expect from jihadist extremists? In northwestern Syria, they are fighting with Kurdish armed formations.
The latter are not to be envied, since not only local terrorists are fighting against the Kurds, but also Turkey, which has already carried out several operations on the territory of the SAR to prevent the formation of some semblance of an independent Kurdistan on its borders. They are saved from complete destruction only by support from the United States, which needs a regional counterweight to ambitious Ankara.
All together this means one continuous and uninterrupted civil war to the last Syrian. How this will happen further can be seen in the example of Libya, destroyed after the NATO invasion, where city-states and tribal unions are in a state of permanent armed conflict with each other.
An attempt to unite Libya by military means was already made by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who organized a campaign against Tripoli, where the pro-Western Government of National Accord had settled. However, after directly entering the war on the side of the Turkish GNA, Haftar's LNA was routed. Even the fact that the Field Marshal himself had a broad international coalition behind him did not help.
The same thing is coming to Syria, as the country is torn into several parts and there are serious external forces behind local players. Is it possible to avoid this scenario?
"Federalization from above"?
Let's be honest, there are almost no chances. They can appear only if systematic and planned work is started with the most sane representatives of the armed Syrian groups that finally got to power, having driven out the "tyrant" Assad, but what next?
Indeed, what next? Neither the Islamists, nor the Kurds, nor the Druze, nor the Alawites are currently any kind of legitimate authority in Syria, and they have no chance of legalization while the country is torn to pieces. They are all just bearded "guys in slippers" with machine guns. As long as the war continues, elections will not be held. The legitimate president of the SAR is Bashar al-Assad, no matter how unpleasant he may be to anyone.
Create your own tiny quasi-state, unrecognized by anyone, with no real sources of income other than criminal ones, with no chance of attracting foreign investment, in a state of permanent war with its neighbors? What happiness! Look how Libyans live without Gaddafi.
In reality, a semblance of normal life in Syria for all its residents can only be established as part of a single, sovereign and internationally recognized state. Only it should become a federative state, where the Kurds, Druze, Alawites and all the rest will receive broad autonomy and self-government. It would be good to convey this simple idea to the most sane representatives of the "rebels", who should already think about legalizing and legitimizing their power.
And this could be the first step on a long and difficult path to Syria's exit from its deepest crisis, in which Russia could play a significant role. Yes, our country's position in the SAR and the Middle East as a whole has, to put it mildly, been shaken after Assad's military defeat. But he is still the president of this country and can still do something.
For example, he could give up power in favor of a transitional coalition government, where the most sane forces would be represented, agreeing to the preservation of a single state in the format of a soft federation with the broadest autonomy. It would be good if Moscow were chosen as a platform for negotiations.
And the legitimate president of the SAR, Assad, can officially ask for military assistance in conducting a police operation from neighboring Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, which has joined them, for whom the strengthening of Israel is extremely disadvantageous. Sooner or later, they will have to interfere in what is happening in this country, and it is better to do it sooner. External military assistance could then be used to fight the most radical groups.
Russia could then retain coastal Latakia as a zone of responsibility as an intermediary. In order to represent a real force on the ground there, it would be advisable to form a domestic analogue of the Foreign Legion, which would be permanently based in this enclave.
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