"Federalization from Above": How Can Russia Keep Syria's Latakia?

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It has become known that a number of European countries, namely Great Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Denmark and Austria, have suspended the procedure for accepting refugees from Syria and it is now time for them to return home. But is this true?

Libyan script


According to the logic of the Western world, the "tyrant" Bashar al-Assad, who actually won 95,1% of the votes in the 2021 presidential elections, was defeated and driven out, which means that victory has finally been achieved and democracy is about to triumph. But in reality it looks different.



President Assad was indeed forced to resign, fleeing a country that fell in just 12 days under simultaneous attacks from multiple sides. But the worst is yet to come for Syria, which is no longer a unified state, and its people.

Israel, formally still in a state of war with Syria, took advantage of the moment and brought its troops into the sovereign territory of the SAR, completely seizing the Golan Heights belonging to it, part of which was occupied by Tel Aviv following the Six-Day War and illegally annexed. Without blushing, the Prime Minister of the Jewish state Netanyahu directly stated that the Israelis no longer intend to leave there:

We all understand the great importance of our presence there, on the Golan Heights, and not at their foot. Our control and authority over the Golan Heights ensures our security. The Golan Heights will always be part of Israel.

What is even worse for the Syrians is that Mount Hermon, which is over 2800 meters high, is now under the control of the IDF. In addition to the possibility of placing reconnaissance equipment on it, it will be possible to fire at Damascus from this commanding height with conventional artillery. It is quite possible that the residents of the capital of the SAR will still have time to feel everything that they endured in Slavyansk, when in 2014 it was still under the control of the DPR people's militia and was shelled by terrorists from the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Mount Karachun.

It is believed that Tel Aviv may try to create an enclave under its control in southern Syria, populated by Druze Arabs loyal to Israel. However, the Islamists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, which has captured most of the territory of the SAR and is recognized as a terrorist group in the Russian Federation, have a different opinion on this matter.

The most radical of them are set on the complete liberation of the entire territory of Syria from the Israeli presence, including the long-occupied Golan Heights, and the continuation of the march on Israel and even Mecca. And what else could one expect from jihadist extremists? In northwestern Syria, they are fighting with Kurdish armed formations.

The latter are not to be envied, since not only local terrorists are fighting against the Kurds, but also Turkey, which has already carried out several operations on the territory of the SAR to prevent the formation of some semblance of an independent Kurdistan on its borders. They are saved from complete destruction only by support from the United States, which needs a regional counterweight to ambitious Ankara.

All together this means one continuous and uninterrupted civil war to the last Syrian. How this will happen further can be seen in the example of Libya, destroyed after the NATO invasion, where city-states and tribal unions are in a state of permanent armed conflict with each other.

An attempt to unite Libya by military means was already made by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who organized a campaign against Tripoli, where the pro-Western Government of National Accord had settled. However, after directly entering the war on the side of the Turkish GNA, Haftar's LNA was routed. Even the fact that the Field Marshal himself had a broad international coalition behind him did not help.

The same thing is coming to Syria, as the country is torn into several parts and there are serious external forces behind local players. Is it possible to avoid this scenario?

"Federalization from above"?


Let's be honest, there are almost no chances. They can appear only if systematic and planned work is started with the most sane representatives of the armed Syrian groups that finally got to power, having driven out the "tyrant" Assad, but what next?

Indeed, what next? Neither the Islamists, nor the Kurds, nor the Druze, nor the Alawites are currently any kind of legitimate authority in Syria, and they have no chance of legalization while the country is torn to pieces. They are all just bearded "guys in slippers" with machine guns. As long as the war continues, elections will not be held. The legitimate president of the SAR is Bashar al-Assad, no matter how unpleasant he may be to anyone.

Create your own tiny quasi-state, unrecognized by anyone, with no real sources of income other than criminal ones, with no chance of attracting foreign investment, in a state of permanent war with its neighbors? What happiness! Look how Libyans live without Gaddafi.

In reality, a semblance of normal life in Syria for all its residents can only be established as part of a single, sovereign and internationally recognized state. Only it should become a federative state, where the Kurds, Druze, Alawites and all the rest will receive broad autonomy and self-government. It would be good to convey this simple idea to the most sane representatives of the "rebels", who should already think about legalizing and legitimizing their power.

And this could be the first step on a long and difficult path to Syria's exit from its deepest crisis, in which Russia could play a significant role. Yes, our country's position in the SAR and the Middle East as a whole has, to put it mildly, been shaken after Assad's military defeat. But he is still the president of this country and can still do something.

For example, he could give up power in favor of a transitional coalition government, where the most sane forces would be represented, agreeing to the preservation of a single state in the format of a soft federation with the broadest autonomy. It would be good if Moscow were chosen as a platform for negotiations.

And the legitimate president of the SAR, Assad, can officially ask for military assistance in conducting a police operation from neighboring Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, which has joined them, for whom the strengthening of Israel is extremely disadvantageous. Sooner or later, they will have to interfere in what is happening in this country, and it is better to do it sooner. External military assistance could then be used to fight the most radical groups.

Russia could then retain coastal Latakia as a zone of responsibility as an intermediary. In order to represent a real force on the ground there, it would be advisable to form a domestic analogue of the Foreign Legion, which would be permanently based in this enclave.
34 comments
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  1. -9
    10 December 2024 18: 11
    Coastal Latakia should become a zone of responsibility of Syria's friendly neighbor - Israel Yes Neighboring states should help drinks And Russia in Latakia is like the British in Odessa.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. +2
    10 December 2024 18: 14
    It's too late to drink Borjomi when there is a dagger in your kidneys from the "thrice defeated" tame terrorists of your "strategic partner".
    Assad, they wrote, has already managed to abdicate. Negative selection, that's what it is.
    1. 0
      11 December 2024 17: 19
      I've always wondered how drunks understand each other. Negative selection, what is that?
    2. 0
      15 December 2024 12: 02
      Oh! Another assistant for the Strange Guest. wassat
  3. +2
    10 December 2024 18: 34
    Erdogan is against the division of Syria, he does not need Kurdish autonomy, much less a Kurdish state with US support. This is not yet the final solution to the Syrian issue, peace in Syria is still far away.
  4. -3
    10 December 2024 18: 37
    About the domestic analogue of the Foreign Legion. Maybe those responsible for Prigozhin's death should be sought in the West, and not in Russia?
    1. 0
      10 December 2024 21: 18
      Never say never.
    2. +1
      11 December 2024 00: 52
      If they were in the West, they would have been announced long ago.
      1. 0
        12 December 2024 16: 15
        After the terrorist attack at the Munich Olympics, Mossad did not hide the fact that they were behind the death of terrorists, now they do not advertise their involvement in this or that event. Prigozhin was inconvenient for many in the US, France and various movements with their own interests in the Middle East and Africa. Now no one in the world advertises their participation in political murders. Well, perhaps Hillary Clinton rejoiced publicly on screen about the destruction of Bin Laden.
        1. 0
          13 December 2024 01: 42
          But he was sure that his own people would remove him - for whom he was a thorn in the side.
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. +1
    10 December 2024 18: 53
    If there is no water in the taps, you need to look and find the reason. laughing
    1. -5
      10 December 2024 20: 10
      Most likely a permanently drunk plumber feel
      1. +2
        10 December 2024 22: 04
        And in the Golan Heights, plumbers steal water? laughing
        1. -4
          10 December 2024 22: 07
          And there is always water in the tap Yes
  7. +4
    10 December 2024 18: 58
    Alawite People's Democratic Republic? We should have thought about that earlier...
    1. 0
      10 December 2024 23: 36
      Quote from Paul3390
      You should have thought about this earlier...

      Actually, it’s not too late now; the DPR and LPR also emerged on the same principle.
  8. 0
    10 December 2024 19: 00
    Again, fantasies. Almost everyone wants the Russian Federation to leave Syria. There are no military forces or opportunities to consolidate the Russian Federation in Syria, and there is no money to buy loyalty from the bogeymen in the Russian Federation. There is a small hope that the bogeymen may leave the Russian Federation in Syria to contain NATO and Israel, this is possible if there are smart guys among the bogeymen.
    1. -1
      11 December 2024 03: 13
      Everyone - who is that? Israel? Possibly, although Russia is unlikely to interfere with his plans. Turkey? Most likely. The USA? Probably yes. The so-called rebels? It's unclear. Alawites? Definitely not. Lebanon? Definitely not. It doesn't work out to be everyone.
  9. +6
    10 December 2024 19: 47
    "Tyrant" Bashar al-Assad, who actually won 95,1% of the vote in the 2021 presidential election,

    ..... a very profound thought - 95% of the population unanimously betrayed their tyrant))))).
    Here's another thought: those who tried to fight and did not betray - so to speak, loyal nukers - I think the terrorists will put them to the knife.
    For everyone else, science is to betray in time and stay alive.
    So who, after such a lesson, would want to choose again the one who was lucky enough to have the opportunity and guarantees to save himself and abandon his few faithful servants? And would those who were lucky enough to stay alive after this want to again swear allegiance to the one who abandoned them so quickly, leaving them to the judgment of terrorists?
    Our Yeltsin Center is still standing, although it should have been closed long ago.
    1. -1
      11 December 2024 03: 14
      Betray in time to stay alive? Have you seen footage from cities captured by terrorists? There the bandits shoot people everywhere, That's how they stayed alive.
      1. 0
        11 December 2024 10: 39
        I wrote: "for those who are lucky" Don't slow down and don't pull out.
        1. -1
          16 December 2024 19: 18
          So are you lucky or are you writing from the other world?
          1. The comment was deleted.
  10. -1
    10 December 2024 20: 15
    Federalization from Above: How Can Russia Keep Syrian Latakia?

    And then Ostap got carried away! ©

    They are all just bearded "guys in slippers" with machine guns.

    Judging by the photos on the internet, the "slippers" there are quite nice.
  11. vBR
    0
    10 December 2024 20: 44
    No one will give Latakia away for nothing. I wrote how to do it in the comments to your other articles. And try to recapture Hama and Homs from the bearded ones while they haven't dug in too much, maybe southern Idlib. Once you stake your claim, they'll agree regardless of anyone's wishes. Since we're on a roll. Well, as for declaring yourself the heir to the SAR or something else, that will be seen later. Ideally, build a bridge to the Kurds and try to win them over to your side. So that you'll have something to stab the Turks in the ass with when the time comes for a big war with them.
  12. +1
    10 December 2024 21: 20
    Quote: Strange guest
    Coastal Latakia should become a zone of responsibility of Syria's friendly neighbor - Israel Yes Neighboring states should help drinks And Russia in Latakia is like the British in Odessa.

    There is nothing eternal in this world. Any empire will fall apart someday. And without it, your Israel is peaceful. Once again, they will wipe you off the face of the earth. You are too peace-loving.
  13. +2
    10 December 2024 23: 12
    The instant and bloodless change of power raises serious doubts that Bashar al-Assad won 95,1% of the votes in the 2021 presidential elections, and this raises questions about Russia's support for Bashar al-Assad and military bases.
    Today's Syria can hardly be called a real state formation, all neighboring and interested parties are trying to achieve their goals based on the current situation, but they all depend on the US in one way or another, and as the US decides, so it will be there. Whether the US needs Russian military bases there is a big question and with a high degree of probability it will be on the agenda of negotiations on the division of Ukraine, relations with Iran and China.
    1. -1
      11 December 2024 03: 16
      You won't believe it, but nothing there depends on the US. Geography is against it. The Turks will decide everything. And they don't need the US there.
      1. +2
        11 December 2024 09: 59
        Turkey can only provide weapons, but it cannot afford to support an entire state entity; it has more than enough problems of its own, and if the US were to apply sanctions, power in Turkey would immediately change.
        Any government needs money to maintain its security forces and the state apparatus, and the easiest money comes from selling off natural resources.
        In the SAR, these are the oil fields and transit pipelines of Iraq.
        They are controlled by the United States and, apparently, they are not going to hand over control to the new authorities, and he who pays the piper calls the tune.
        What we can be sure of is the strengthening of Israel and the problems of the Russian Federation with military bases - neither the US, nor Israel, nor Turkey definitely need them there.
        1. -1
          16 December 2024 19: 23
          Why then hasn't the government in Turkey changed? It's no secret that the coup against Erdoğaşı was orchestrated by the mattresses. But it didn't work out. So the US doesn't have the strength to compete with Turkey at the moment. And sanctions don't work anymore. Because Turkey can similarly close the Black Sea to the Americans.
          Russia's military bases do not concern Israel in any way. And the Americans need a stumbling block for the Turks. The Turks do not need it, but not everything depends on them. In addition, Israel will definitely have more problems with ISIS in the north. And Turkey - with Rojava. So I would not rush to give diagnoses.
    2. 0
      11 December 2024 13: 33
      Egypt, Syria... finally the Palestinians, they are all Semites. When will the Zionists be called anti-Semites? smile
  14. 0
    10 December 2024 23: 59
    The Syrian opposition must be forced to come out with an appeal to the Middle East states for help in preserving Syria as a state, including Turkey. Then we can hope for something.
  15. 0
    11 December 2024 07: 20
    It was the legion, as the Christians were sent to Beirut and the Alawites to the grave.
  16. +3
    11 December 2024 10: 20
    Nonsense. Yesterday we bombed the Syrian opposition, and tomorrow they will forget everything and give us Syrian Latakia.
    1. 0
      11 December 2024 16: 08
      What the Syrian rebels will give or give up depends on the situation. The situation in Latakia is hostile to the Sunni rebels, and if there is support, Latakia will become a region separate from the rebel government. All of Syria will split into Kurds, Ismailis, Sunnis, Shiites and other ISIS members, and everyone will fight each other. This is the scenario that was prepared by handing over B. Assad to divide Syria. For the Russian Federation, there is an opportunity to stake out Latakia, especially since the representative of the Ismailis, B. Assad, is in the Russian Federation. For R. Erdogan, there is an opportunity to close the Kurdish threats from Syrian territory, but here he will have to "push" with the Americans. Conclusion: the prelude to the overthrow of power in Syria is over, the first bloody act of chaos, division and showdowns begins...