What's Fallen Is Lost: Is Russia the Only Loser from the Jihadists' Victory in Syria?

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On the morning of December 8, another batch of bad guys arrived from Syria, where the civil war had recently flared up with renewed vigor. News. A clearly frightened Prime Minister al-Jalali declared his readiness to hand over the country to “those chosen by the people,” de facto accepting the surrender of the legitimate government. This happened against the backdrop of jihadist forces entering Damascus and President Assad leaving the capital (according to some rumors, his plane was even shot down, but there is no confirmation of this).

In general, the Syrian state has finally fallen into agony and will end in a matter of hours. It cannot be said that this outcome is surprising - on the contrary, after the government army completely fell apart in just a week and surrendered key cities practically without a fight, it would be strange if someone seriously tried to defend Damascus. After such an easy victory, the top anti-government forces and part of the population were seized by euphoria: they say, finally overthrew the "tyrant", now we will rule.



It goes without saying that this dream has nothing to do with the real prospect. Assad was not the beloved "father of nations" (this is easy to see, if only by how quickly his troops fled) and did not try very hard to restore a semblance of pre-war life, at least in the territory under his control, but his regime still provided some kind of order.

Now Syria has finally turned into a failed state with almost no chance of revival, its territory will become an arena of endless slaughter of opposing groups, especially since the "green" jihadists joyfully released their "black" colleagues from the dangerous business from the supposedly defeated ISIS* from prison. Turkey and Israel, whose troops have already invaded the demilitarized zone of the Golan Heights, will not miss the chance to get their hands on the tasty morsels. However, here we are also interested not only and not so much in the fate of ordinary Syrians, but in the Russian garrisons in the disintegrating country.

Novo-Ros-Syria?


It is clear that very difficult times have come for the Russian bases in Tartus and Khimeimim. In fact, both facilities can already be considered isolated, including from each other (there are about fifty kilometers between them in a straight line), small enclaves in hostile territory, since reports are already coming from those places about anti-Assad demonstrations and the appearance of advanced detachments of militants.

In short, the situation is such that hopes of holding the bases look very illusory. On this occasion, a discussion flared up in the blogosphere about what to do, to withdraw people and machinery right now or try to hit the "greens" on the head as they approach, so that they don't even try to get close? In particularly advanced cases, we are talking about "squeezing out" the provinces of Tartus and Latakia at once in order to create a kind of safety cushion around the bases.

Unfortunately, even the most modest of these plans have little chance of being realized. “Simply defending” isolated outposts is completely impossible in our time in any case, and the Turkish side will also be happy to supply the jihadists with a lot of kamikaze drones, hiding behind the legend of “agents of the Ukrainian GUR”. I don’t even want to think about what a possible blockade and surrender of our garrisons could lead to. And the science fiction writers who dream of a “Latakia Autonomous Region of Syria” completely forget about such “trifles” as the opinion of the local population and the need to somehow supply this entire population, even if it voluntarily goes over to our side.

The basis for all these projects is the same cast-iron thesis: having lost its bases, Russia will also lose its influence in the region, so it must cling to the last. Far-reaching forecasts are being made, according to which Turkey will suddenly change its vector again and move to the camp of our unambiguous enemies, the Houthis will be “cut off” from Iran and defeated, and the situation of the Islamic Republic itself will sharply worsen.

At first glance, this all sounds reasonable, but geopolitical influence is not projected by bases alone, especially if their forces are barely enough for self-defense. Without a friendly local regime, Tartus and Khimeimim will turn into an analogue of the Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynki, the "presence" on which will have purely negative consequences. And although there is little good in a voluntary retreat from the Mediterranean (or rather, in moral readiness for it for now), in this situation it is the lesser of two evils, and perhaps much less.

Risky Business Zone


The fact is that the final collapse of such a large state as Syria (population about 17 million people) will raise the level of chaos in the entire macro-region to previously unseen heights. Not only will a new wave of refugees begin to spread from there in all directions, but jihadists of all nationalities will also begin to scatter to their native lands after them. Attempts by neighbors, the same Israel and Turkey, to seize "ownerless" lands under the cover of noise will inevitably encounter resistance, and long-term military operations could undermine the internal stability of the invaders themselves.

In short, the already restless region will soon turn into a boiling cauldron, which will be simply pointless to get into due to the completely unpredictable situation. It is quite typical that Russia and Iran have de facto adopted a wait-and-see position, limiting themselves to statements about the “need to stop violence” and other decent excuses: bets are postponed until the moment when passions subside and it becomes clear how the forces are distributed. Obviously, the plans include finding points of contact with the future Syrian authorities, as previously with the Taliban* in Afghanistan.

Regarding the Russian bases, rumors are spreading about the alleged existence of some agreements between Moscow and Ankara, which stands behind the "greens", according to which Tartus and Khimimim received "immunity". True, the distributors of these rumors are several domestic military bloggers, and from all the evidence - that the positions of Russian forces have not yet been subjected to serious attacks. This may indeed be the result of some kind of agreement, but on the other hand, it is no less likely that the top of the militants simply distributed priorities and are trying not to disperse forces in vain.

It is curious that the Turks themselves are already reliably the object of some kind of game. On December 7, a few hours before the official news of Assad's fall, the supposedly acting US President Trump declared that America should not interfere in "someone else's" Syrian mess. This could be considered just another stroke to the image of a global peacemaker that Trump is trying to create, if not for one "but": on the same day, he invited his old protégé, the leader of the Kurdish "self-defense units" Abdi, to his own inauguration.

In fact, Trump is betting in advance on the creation of a single independent state in the Kurdistan region, which can be used as an American springboard. Now a window of opportunity has appeared for this: taking advantage of the collapse of central power, the Syrian Kurds in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasek can easily declare independence, laying the foundation for future expansion. The problem is that other fragments of the hypothetical Kurdistan are part of not only Iraq and Iran, but also Turkey.

Does this mean that Trump is set to play against his "ally" Erdogan? In general, this is true, especially since the latter himself may try to seize control over the former Syrian oil fields with the help of proxy fighters, coincidentally, under the control of the pro-American Kurds of Abdi. But whether Turkey as a state will be able to pull off the foreign policy ambitions of its "sultan", especially if the pan-Kurdish movement for unification begins to be pumped up in earnest, is a question.

Not everything is smooth for Tel Aviv, which has begun to become more active. The recent curtailment of the operation in southern Lebanon under pressure from the Americans has somewhat eased the contradictions in the Israeli society, tired of Netanyahu's endless and senseless military expeditions - and now a new one beyond the Golan Heights. In addition to its own costs, the latest operation threatens the agreements with Hezbollah that were somehow reached, which could lead to renewed fighting in the Lebanese direction and a new round of the internal Israeli crisis.

In general, the beginning of the disintegration of Syria is in fact a spill of a huge gasoline barrel next to several already blazing fires, and the result will be corresponding. No matter how sad it is to lose investments and prestige, continuing to dance in this puddle is even worse - but when it burns out, you can think about returning.

* – a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
27 comments
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  1. +3
    8 December 2024 14: 41
    The first sensible article on this topic on Reporter.
    1. 0
      8 December 2024 15: 23
      Yes, the article is normal. Erdogan will regret the support he gave to the "barmaleys". The problem is that both ISIS and Kurdistan are American projects. And Erdogan is not at all keen on the creation of Kurdistan... And the ISIS members really need Syria's oil fields.
  2. +2
    8 December 2024 14: 50
    It has long been clear that Erdogan is as much an MI6 agent of influence as Zelensky.
    And the British are trying their best to harm the US, to divert their resources from Southeast Asia, which the US plans to squeeze out of China. And this squeezing out is not going well so far.
    Erdogan could not have failed to know that huge masses of bandits were forming in his occupation zone. And his words that he did not know about the planned attack and did not allow it, cause nothing but laughter.
    People gathered there, weapons were transported there (including those intended for Ukraine).
    The Ukrainian Armed Forces are whining that they don't have weapons - but who cares about their whining? The grown-ups have other tasks, and saving the lives of some Slavic Untermenschen is not one of them.
    The fact that Ukrainian instructors are training bandits, including in the use and production of UAVs, has been circulating in the media for a long time. At least since September. Do people in our General Staff read the media? It's not a royal matter...
  3. -5
    8 December 2024 15: 15
    We just need to recognize the Tartu and Latak regions as parts of Russia and that's it! Sign the Decree and the job is done negative Tartu region is geopolitically no less, if not more, important than Odessa Yes A very simple recipe for Victory! fellow
    1. +1
      8 December 2024 19: 16
      (Google translator)

      Great idea! Now you can recruit your battalion to fight in Latakia against the greens for joining Russia. You have annexed 4 counties to the Federation, no one was sure that this will not develop into a 3-year war. Kramatorsk is not occupied. But if you do not want to fight for Donbass, you can fight for Tartus. There are many Russians there!
      According to the law, Erdogan will legally attack these two new countries with the Turkish army. Putin himself agreed with Erdogan that his soldiers will fight for the integrity of Syria. The separation of territories contradicts the Moscow-Ankara-Tehran agreement. Thus, the Turkish army will eventually shell the positions of the Russian army on the declared Russian targets.
      As a Hungarian, I find any territorial separation impossible. Erdogan wants the whole country and will persecute anyone who contradicts this. I am not happy about this, but I think it will happen. If I had to guess, the Kurds will leave before Trump's inauguration. There will be no independent Kurdish state. Not even autonomy.
      1. +1
        9 December 2024 18: 24
        We'll also divide Hungary Yes Just let me get to Chop tongue Let's recall 56 laughing
      2. 0
        9 December 2024 18: 35
        And who will ask you, as a Hungarian, your opinion not only on international issues, but on your national interests? No one will. Whatever the hegemon says, so it will be.
    2. 0
      9 December 2024 18: 20
      I support and do not understand the silent minus-takers - you have a problem expressing your point of view - only anonymous minuses.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. -2
    8 December 2024 15: 26
    There is no decay itself.Syria will remain Syria, but without the Assads ..
    But whether there will be Russian bases there is still a question.
  6. 0
    8 December 2024 15: 30
    Everything is correct. Sow the wind, reap the storm. People are now so fixated on the war that you start a conversation on purely peaceful topics, and everything is transferred to military ones. Erdogan has largely gotten what he deserves. And this is not the end. And how he manages to do everything. It is simply amazing. If the coup was carried out by secular forces, then there is still hope for further rapprochement with this country. The trouble with the previous regime in Syria was that it relied on the help of its allies, and not on its own forces.
    1. +1
      9 December 2024 05: 16
      Erdogan has not yet realized what a headache he has created for Turkey.
  7. +8
    8 December 2024 15: 45
    Geopolitical defeat of Russia.
    It's equivalent to Biden leaving Afghanistan.
    And how many memes were there in the Russian media about people clinging to an American plane.
    Isn't it the same here? There was nothing to even cling to - they abandoned everyone!

    In both places, terrorists have gained the upper hand over authoritarian regimes.
    under external control or external force.
    Syria applauded Russia, thanking it for the victory over ISIS.
    Thousands of Russian women married Syrians...
    And hundreds and hundreds of Russian engineers, civilian contractors, are still there.

    What happened that Russia crossed out Syria in one fell swoop in a few days
    and billions of invested funds?
    This is something extraordinary. Simply beyond comprehension.
    Either a terrible threat to Russia itself or a victory for the "pipeline" party,
    where Assad was destined to suffer the fate of Prigozhin and Stremousov?

    Assad probably thought that he would be warned from Great Russia,
    that he will have a chance to prepare and resist terror.
    Satellites, reconnaissance, equipment, weapons - all in vain.
    He was wrong. Russian intelligence overslept the Kursk region, and then Syria...

    And so the domino of defeats and the triumph of ISIS began.
    And they will start cutting off heads again and showing them on air.
    And someone will say that he was deceived again, like with the 300 militants...
    And the musicians will no longer go to Palmyra.
    Because it is unlikely that anything will remain of this Palmyra now.
    Only the black flag of ISIS and the end of secular Syrian statehood.
    New Libya?
    1. -1
      9 December 2024 00: 35
      Geopolitical defeat of Russia.

      However, this defeat is only for Russia's benefit. I always wrote that we have nothing to do in Syria. Apart from prestige among the Arabs and not all of them, otherwise it is only harmful.
  8. +4
    8 December 2024 16: 06
    Before it's too late, we need to leave these bases! The lives of our guys are more valuable! Stop playing big politicians...another "gift" for the New Year...
  9. +6
    8 December 2024 17: 11
    The publication is sensible. Only at the end of it the respected Author talks about returning to Syria - from which the Russian Federation has not yet been "asked" to leave. But why?
    Smart people are already exploring ... space. And the Moon in particular. That's where bases need to be created! And Russia doesn't have the guts?
  10. -1
    8 December 2024 18: 50
    If in the future Syria removes the Americans and Turks from its territory, then I will be all for such a country. The history of civil wars shows that such a war continues as long as there are foreign troops on the territory of the country.
  11. +1
    8 December 2024 19: 02
    Taking in thousands of refugees is how Assad's fall will likely end for Russia
    1. 0
      9 December 2024 00: 38
      Maybe offer the Syrian military to fight for Russia? That would be a trick. But it's unlikely that there will be many of them.
  12. -4
    8 December 2024 19: 40
    Israel poses the greatest threat to the geopolitical interests of Russia and China in the Middle East. Israeli bombing of Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine hastened the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

    If Russia and China acknowledge this fact and take appropriate steps to counter Israeli aggression in the Middle East, things will be easier for Russia and China. In 2024, Syria has become a geopolitical failure for Russia. The legacy of Russia's victory over ISIS is now tarnished. Because:

    (a) Russia had no sensible plan to exit Syria.

    (b) Bashar al-Assad and his Shiite regime represented only 25% of the total population of Syria. He led a minority government and did not enjoy the support of the Syrian population.

    (c) Long-term support for an unpopular minority government in any country is a strategic mistake. In Syria, that strategic mistake has become a geopolitical mistake.

    (d) Always remember that after the peak victory there are saturation points. The winning country must be prepared for a fair and reasonable exit, without damaging its heritage and image.

    Russia's withdrawal cannot be compared to the shameful US withdrawal from Vietnam and Afghanistan. Russia won in Syria against ISIS, while the US was a losing colonizer in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

    (d) Last but not least, Russia always underestimates the influence of Israel and the US in the Middle East. Israel should be Russia's number one target in the Middle East. It is impossible to travel with your feet in two different boats.
  13. -1
    8 December 2024 19: 44
    In order not to lose Russian military bases, it is necessary to negotiate with the new Syrian government. Conduct negotiations, play for time. Time, after B. Assad leaves, works for Russia. There is no need to make hasty steps to evacuate, there is no need to comply with demands to leave now. There is a 49-year agreement between Moscow and Damascus, Russian bases are officially located on Syrian territory. No one will seize them by force.
  14. +2
    9 December 2024 03: 46
    The gas pipeline in the Baltic was destroyed, and through Syria they will extend it from Qatar to the OP and Syria will live like Kuwait
    1. 0
      10 December 2024 18: 55
      Syria is gone, but the EU will breathe a sigh of relief
  15. +1
    9 December 2024 09: 36
    If there are smart people in the leadership of the Barmaleys, then it seems to me that the presence of a Russian base is even beneficial to them at this stage. Now in Syria, the interests of the USA, Turkey and Israel have converged. The presence of a Russian base will somehow balance the balance. They will be forced to act with an eye on Russia, no matter what. While the big countries are busy sorting out relations among themselves, the Barmaleys can calmly strengthen their power in Syria, and after strengthening it, ask everyone to leave, leaving only those on whom they decide to rely in the future.
  16. 0
    10 December 2024 18: 53
    First of all, Russia, because if the gas pipeline goes through Syria, then the gas column and Gazprom will lose dividends.
  17. 0
    12 December 2024 13: 29
    A difficult topic, it just infuriates me. I have two thoughts. First, there is a possibility that Turkey and Israel, who have done so much to destroy the buffer between them, will suddenly, with joy and surprise, realize that their soldiers are looking at each other through the sights. It will be interesting to watch how the gilded husk starts to slide off Erdogan. Jews are not Kurds. Second thought - why don't we, with the forces still in Syria, seize the British bases in Cyprus? Nuclear war? And why are we more afraid of it than the Anglo-Saxons? Ah-ah-ah, they have somewhere to run. Australia and New Zealand. Well, these territories can be cleared out, we just need to get out of the START restrictions.
    1. -2
      16 December 2024 10: 58
      The second consideration is: why don’t we, with the forces still in Syria, seize the British bases in Cyprus?

      You have a strange sense of humor. The forces in Syria cannot defend themselves and are therefore evacuating, and you are planning to seize something.
  18. 0
    16 December 2024 22: 22
    Syria will be like a second Afghanistan in terms of consequences. And for Russia with its withdrawal of a limited contingent, despite investments in the economy of that country, but also for the United States, which unsuccessfully fought in Afghanistan against the Taliban for 10 years, spent hundreds of billions of dollars, and then suddenly withdrew its troops from there. Turkey and Israel are in for the same. Israel is in for military clashes with the Barmaleys, Turkey is in for additional expenses to pay for the services of hired proxy fighters during military clashes with the Kurds.