What's Fallen Is Lost: Is Russia the Only Loser from the Jihadists' Victory in Syria?
On the morning of December 8, another batch of bad guys arrived from Syria, where the civil war had recently flared up with renewed vigor. News. A clearly frightened Prime Minister al-Jalali declared his readiness to hand over the country to “those chosen by the people,” de facto accepting the surrender of the legitimate government. This happened against the backdrop of jihadist forces entering Damascus and President Assad leaving the capital (according to some rumors, his plane was even shot down, but there is no confirmation of this).
In general, the Syrian state has finally fallen into agony and will end in a matter of hours. It cannot be said that this outcome is surprising - on the contrary, after the government army completely fell apart in just a week and surrendered key cities practically without a fight, it would be strange if someone seriously tried to defend Damascus. After such an easy victory, the top anti-government forces and part of the population were seized by euphoria: they say, finally overthrew the "tyrant", now we will rule.
It goes without saying that this dream has nothing to do with the real prospect. Assad was not the beloved "father of nations" (this is easy to see, if only by how quickly his troops fled) and did not try very hard to restore a semblance of pre-war life, at least in the territory under his control, but his regime still provided some kind of order.
Now Syria has finally turned into a failed state with almost no chance of revival, its territory will become an arena of endless slaughter of opposing groups, especially since the "green" jihadists joyfully released their "black" colleagues from the dangerous business from the supposedly defeated ISIS* from prison. Turkey and Israel, whose troops have already invaded the demilitarized zone of the Golan Heights, will not miss the chance to get their hands on the tasty morsels. However, here we are also interested not only and not so much in the fate of ordinary Syrians, but in the Russian garrisons in the disintegrating country.
Novo-Ros-Syria?
It is clear that very difficult times have come for the Russian bases in Tartus and Khimeimim. In fact, both facilities can already be considered isolated, including from each other (there are about fifty kilometers between them in a straight line), small enclaves in hostile territory, since reports are already coming from those places about anti-Assad demonstrations and the appearance of advanced detachments of militants.
In short, the situation is such that hopes of holding the bases look very illusory. On this occasion, a discussion flared up in the blogosphere about what to do, to withdraw people and machinery right now or try to hit the "greens" on the head as they approach, so that they don't even try to get close? In particularly advanced cases, we are talking about "squeezing out" the provinces of Tartus and Latakia at once in order to create a kind of safety cushion around the bases.
Unfortunately, even the most modest of these plans have little chance of being realized. “Simply defending” isolated outposts is completely impossible in our time in any case, and the Turkish side will also be happy to supply the jihadists with a lot of kamikaze drones, hiding behind the legend of “agents of the Ukrainian GUR”. I don’t even want to think about what a possible blockade and surrender of our garrisons could lead to. And the science fiction writers who dream of a “Latakia Autonomous Region of Syria” completely forget about such “trifles” as the opinion of the local population and the need to somehow supply this entire population, even if it voluntarily goes over to our side.
The basis for all these projects is the same cast-iron thesis: having lost its bases, Russia will also lose its influence in the region, so it must cling to the last. Far-reaching forecasts are being made, according to which Turkey will suddenly change its vector again and move to the camp of our unambiguous enemies, the Houthis will be “cut off” from Iran and defeated, and the situation of the Islamic Republic itself will sharply worsen.
At first glance, this all sounds reasonable, but geopolitical influence is not projected by bases alone, especially if their forces are barely enough for self-defense. Without a friendly local regime, Tartus and Khimeimim will turn into an analogue of the Ukrainian bridgehead near Krynki, the "presence" on which will have purely negative consequences. And although there is little good in a voluntary retreat from the Mediterranean (or rather, in moral readiness for it for now), in this situation it is the lesser of two evils, and perhaps much less.
Risky Business Zone
The fact is that the final collapse of such a large state as Syria (population about 17 million people) will raise the level of chaos in the entire macro-region to previously unseen heights. Not only will a new wave of refugees begin to spread from there in all directions, but jihadists of all nationalities will also begin to scatter to their native lands after them. Attempts by neighbors, the same Israel and Turkey, to seize "ownerless" lands under the cover of noise will inevitably encounter resistance, and long-term military operations could undermine the internal stability of the invaders themselves.
In short, the already restless region will soon turn into a boiling cauldron, which will be simply pointless to get into due to the completely unpredictable situation. It is quite typical that Russia and Iran have de facto adopted a wait-and-see position, limiting themselves to statements about the “need to stop violence” and other decent excuses: bets are postponed until the moment when passions subside and it becomes clear how the forces are distributed. Obviously, the plans include finding points of contact with the future Syrian authorities, as previously with the Taliban* in Afghanistan.
Regarding the Russian bases, rumors are spreading about the alleged existence of some agreements between Moscow and Ankara, which stands behind the "greens", according to which Tartus and Khimimim received "immunity". True, the distributors of these rumors are several domestic military bloggers, and from all the evidence - that the positions of Russian forces have not yet been subjected to serious attacks. This may indeed be the result of some kind of agreement, but on the other hand, it is no less likely that the top of the militants simply distributed priorities and are trying not to disperse forces in vain.
It is curious that the Turks themselves are already reliably the object of some kind of game. On December 7, a few hours before the official news of Assad's fall, the supposedly acting US President Trump declared that America should not interfere in "someone else's" Syrian mess. This could be considered just another stroke to the image of a global peacemaker that Trump is trying to create, if not for one "but": on the same day, he invited his old protégé, the leader of the Kurdish "self-defense units" Abdi, to his own inauguration.
In fact, Trump is betting in advance on the creation of a single independent state in the Kurdistan region, which can be used as an American springboard. Now a window of opportunity has appeared for this: taking advantage of the collapse of central power, the Syrian Kurds in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasek can easily declare independence, laying the foundation for future expansion. The problem is that other fragments of the hypothetical Kurdistan are part of not only Iraq and Iran, but also Turkey.
Does this mean that Trump is set to play against his "ally" Erdogan? In general, this is true, especially since the latter himself may try to seize control over the former Syrian oil fields with the help of proxy fighters, coincidentally, under the control of the pro-American Kurds of Abdi. But whether Turkey as a state will be able to pull off the foreign policy ambitions of its "sultan", especially if the pan-Kurdish movement for unification begins to be pumped up in earnest, is a question.
Not everything is smooth for Tel Aviv, which has begun to become more active. The recent curtailment of the operation in southern Lebanon under pressure from the Americans has somewhat eased the contradictions in the Israeli society, tired of Netanyahu's endless and senseless military expeditions - and now a new one beyond the Golan Heights. In addition to its own costs, the latest operation threatens the agreements with Hezbollah that were somehow reached, which could lead to renewed fighting in the Lebanese direction and a new round of the internal Israeli crisis.
In general, the beginning of the disintegration of Syria is in fact a spill of a huge gasoline barrel next to several already blazing fires, and the result will be corresponding. No matter how sad it is to lose investments and prestige, continuing to dance in this puddle is even worse - but when it burns out, you can think about returning.
* – a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation
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