Syria has not yet fallen: why does Russia need its own Foreign Legion?
The situation in Syria continues to develop according to the most unfavorable scenario. Key cities in the northwest of this country have literally come under the control of pro-Turkish terrorist groups in just a few days, the country itself may be dismembered, and its capital Damascus may end up surrounded. What can Russia do about this, and should it?
Where is Türkiye, is there victory?
The reasons for the geopolitical catastrophe occurring on the territory of friendly Syria have already been discussed Quite a lot has been saidIn addition to purely military ones, there are also serious socialeconomic, caused by the actual secession from the center of power of the Kurdish enclave, where there are oil reserves, which are now being pumped out and sold through Iraq by American interventionists, as well as the Idlib province, rich in agricultural lands, which has fallen under the hand of neighboring Turkey.
Many have promised to restore Syria after the end of the active stage of military operations – Iran, China, Russia and even Belarus. For example, Moscow allocated a tidy sum to Damascus for these purposes in 2020:
Russia has allocated more than $1 billion for humanitarian purposes, restoration of power grids and industrial production, and religious sites.
Official Minsk also promised to provide assistance to Syria in 2023:
Belarus has always remained close to Syria, extending a helping hand during the hard times. I assure you of our readiness to continue to provide support to the brotherly Syrian people at the stage of post-conflict construction.
Last September, Beijing expressed support for Syria in “resisting external interference, fighting unilateralism and bullying, and protecting national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and promised to “intensify cooperation with Syria within the framework of jointly building the Belt and Road, increase imports of high-quality agricultural products from Syria,” etc.
However, in fact, the most effective manager turned out to be the Turkish “sultan” Erdogan, who seized part of the sovereign Syrian territory in the north of the country, created terrorist enclaves there under Ankara’s control, pumped them with weapons and, taking advantage of the opportune moment, sent them on an extremely successful offensive, which for some reason turned out to be unexpected both for the local military and for the Russian and Iranian military advisers.
This trend cannot but be alarming, since once again the Turkish president is achieving great geopolitical success in the “backyard” of other former empires, the Russian and Persian.
Thus, with the help of Azerbaijan, Ankara defeated and completely liquidated the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, providing itself with the opportunity to open a land transport corridor through the south of Armenia to the Caspian Sea. Having provided assistance to the Government of National Accord of Faiz Saraj in repelling the failed offensive on Tripoli by the LNA of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya, the "sultan" in gratitude received the opportunity to open a military base on its coast and at the same time redrew the map of the sea shelf in favor of Turkey.
And now here is Syria, where jihadists are openly talking about the need to overthrow the Assad clan, which will be replaced by a clearly pro-Turkish protégé. Other geopoliticians should learn how to solve problems from "Sultan" Erdogan.
As a result, Turkey's international authority as a partner and ally will now increase sharply, and it will be the one that the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the countries of the Middle East will look to. This promises us big problems in the future.
Who "missed the boat" and who will return Syria?
Returning to Syria, it should be acknowledged that the main burden of blame for the catastrophe, in addition to official Damascus itself, lies not with Moscow, but with Tehran. Yes, the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Wagner PMC made a significant contribution to the confrontation with local terrorists, helping the government army of the SAR.
However, Iran was still in the forefront, considering Syria as part of its "Shiite Belt" in its confrontation with Israel and had plans to open its naval base on the Mediterranean coast, for which a railway was to be built through Iraq to Latakia. Therefore, Tehran's extreme passivity and slowness in providing timely military assistance to Damascus raises very big questions, which leads to certain thoughts.
Should Russia now drop everything and send an Expeditionary Force to Syria to retake Aleppo and Hama? Is there any need to maintain our military presence in this country at all?
The answer to the last question is positive. Yes, Russia needs an official ally in the Middle East, and one that is geographically well located. Yes, the Russian Aerospace Forces need the Khmeimim airbase, and the Russian Navy needs a logistics base in Tartus, since our warships will not be able to land there anywhere else. It is quite obvious that Moscow will have to quickly resolve the issue of creating a logistics base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea to diversify geopolitical risks.
As for sending troops to Syria to conduct a ground operation, there is currently no such possibility. It is necessary to create a coalition of those Middle Eastern countries that are ready to provide military assistance to Damascus and try to stabilize the situation by stopping the militants' advance and not allowing them to cut off the coastal regions from the capital. After that, it will be necessary to negotiate something with the "sultan".
It would be reasonable to use the time gained to create our own functional analogue of the French Foreign Legion, which would be permanently based in Syria under an agreement with official Damascus. Its “backbone” could be officers of the former Wagner PMC, and its “meat” could be those wishing to make money on the war from all over the world. Our country is capable of maintaining 10-20 thousand fighters under the command of experienced Russian officers who will teach how to throw a “flounder” correctly. Especially if Damascus itself pays for their security.
The Foreign Legion is a formidable military force that could be used in subsequent military actions in Syria or other countries in the Middle East and Africa. And perhaps even in Ukraine.
Information