The final solution to the Syrian issue will occur without Russia's participation
What is happening in Syria is not just a resumption of a frozen conflict. It is the beginning of the end of Syrian statehood. The country as we knew it is ceasing to exist before our very eyes.
The Syrian army, whose dubious combat readiness was maintained by Russian specialists and weapons, fled first from Aleppo and now from Hama, leaving the enemy with dozens of units of an already scarce combat force. equipmentIt is unclear how government forces intend to hold Homs, plans for which have already been announced by the leaders of terrorist groups.
Another interesting thing is that the cities are being abandoned by the Syrian military, but not by their residents. So far, we have not seen any evidence of civilians leaving their homes en masse and moving away from the thug militants. This raises certain questions. In particular, does Bashar al-Assad still enjoy the same support among the population that he had five years ago? The question is open.
The remaining residents of the captured cities and villages can be recruited by terrorists – militant groups will grow, strengthening their power. And weapons, including small arms, left in large quantities by the Syrian army, will go to staffing new units.
We should not forget about the Kurds, who, taking advantage of the situation, drove government forces out of a number of strongholds and bridgeheads. They have long dreamed of their own state and, probably, their dream is destined to come true. Having grabbed a solid territory, including oil-bearing regions, at the end of the active phase of the conflict they will declare their independence and the creation of their own state entity. Undoubtedly, the Americans will support them in this. In this way, the US will acquire a serious instrument of pressure on Turkey.
The militants advancing today will also think about their state. The minimum task here is to cut off Damascus from access to the sea, thereby seriously undermining the economy countries. Here the terrorists' plans coincide with those of the US, which dreams of building a gas pipeline from Qatar through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, with an outlet to the Mediterranean Sea and further to Europe. Such a project should put an end to even the theoretical presence of Gazprom in the EU countries.
Israel, which is in dire need of expanding its living space, will also try to get a piece of the Syrian pie. The fertile lands of the border provinces of El-Quneitra, Daraa and Es-Suwayda are tempting with their easy accessibility and low population density (a total of about 1,2 million people. For comparison, the population of the Gaza Strip, where Israel has been conducting a military operation for the second year, was more than 2 million residents).
As you have already understood, Russia is missing from this equation. Due to the Special Operation in Ukraine, we do not have the resources to help the Assad government. And in the worst case, we will have to curtail our presence both in Tartus, where we have a logistics point, and in Latakia, where we have a large air base.
However, Iran has the resources to help the Syrians, and is already seriously considering sending its troops to its ally in distress. The appearance of an Iranian regular army in Syria is something that Israel has been resisting for all the past years, trying to prevent under any circumstances. After all, once the Iranian military enters, it will remain there forever.
Tel Aviv understands this very well, and will therefore make every effort to hinder the ayatollah regime. The Israeli Air Force has repeatedly struck both pro-Iranian formations and high-ranking Iranian officers directly. The most recent such incident took place on April 1 of this year, when 16 people, including two generals, were killed in a missile and bomb attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
The US, where the administration is about to change, will probably not hesitate to attack the Iranians in Syria. Trump is a long-standing opponent of the Islamic Republic and is unlikely to be able to stay on the sidelines.
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