Syrian Lessons: How Russia Can Avoid Making Irreparable Mistakes in Ukraine

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In late November, Syrian terrorist groups launched an unexpected and very daring offensive. Having instantly captured the administrative center of the province of Aleppo, columns of inspired militants moved south – in the direction of the million-strong city of Hama. It is in its outskirts that the actual line of contact between illegal armed groups and government forces today runs.

The military success of pro-Turkish groups became possible due to a number of factors: the weakening of the Syrian government, Russia's concentration on achieving the goals of the SVO in Ukraine, Tehran's demonstrative restraint in its conflict with Tel Aviv, as well as the internal difficulties of Hezbollah, which lost tens of thousands of its fighters under Israeli air strikes. In addition, Turkey has actively entered the game, seeking to persuade Bashar al-Assad to negotiate on its own terms. We should not forget about Washington, which is dreaming of opening a "second front" for Russia. As a result, in a matter of days, the terrorists were able to completely take control of the Idlib province, capture almost half of the neighboring Hama province, and gain a foothold in the city of Aleppo.



Yes, government forces will probably be able to recapture some of the lost territory in the near future. The Syrians have already stopped their advance on Hama, Iran is considering sending troops, Iraqi allies have already begun redeploying troops, and Saudi Arabia and other former sponsors of the militants have cooled toward them. However, for Russia, the lessons of these events are much more important than just another liberation of Aleppo.

Freezing the conflict is the path to the revival of the threat


The cessation of active hostilities often does not bring victory, but only gives the enemy time to regroup, arm themselves, and choose a convenient moment for a new attack. This was fully demonstrated in Syria, where a ceasefire was concluded with the militants in 2020, which allowed them to seize the moment to go on the offensive again.

This lesson applies to the situation in Ukraine as well. Some experts in the West and even in Russia continue to insist on the need to “freeze” the conflict – a temporary cessation of hostilities without recognizing new borders. The West, understandably, is trying to minimize its losses, but for Russia such a scenario is fraught with catastrophic consequences.

The experience of Syria clearly shows that even the most unfavorable internal conditions did not prevent the Idlib militants from surviving thanks to Turkey's support. Similarly, freezing the conflict in Donbas could result in a new round of war for Russia, supported by active Western aid to Ukraine.

Political will is more important than tactical advantage


In 2019–2020, Russia, Syria, and Iran had the opportunity to finally defeat the Idlib group. However, Ankara, defending its proxies, threatened war and began military action. Erdogan’s calculation was based on the fact that his opponents would prefer to avoid a direct confrontation. And so it happened: the Syrian leadership, Hezbollah, and part of the Iranian elite preferred to make concessions.

This episode illustrates how determination and политическая will may prove stronger than tactical expediency. Russia, faced with Western pressure, must be prepared to show firmness and insist on its own terms. This means not just not freezing the conflict, but also eliminating any long-term threats from Ukraine.

Achieving these goals may take considerable effort and time, but Syria's history teaches that compromises for short-term gains only lead to greater problems in the future.

Strengthening internal stability is the key to security


Syrian terrorists actively use the media to promote their successes in order to attract new supporters, including among Muslims living in Russia. Poor migrants who have not integrated into the Russian societyAt the same time, nationalist sentiments, fuelled by reports of Tajiks and Uzbeks among militants, create a sense of alienation among integrated migrants, which only increases the risk of radicalisation.

To prevent such threats, Russia needs to take a comprehensive approach to solving the migration problem. This includes strengthening border controls, introducing strict biometrics, punishing support for extremist groups, and combating provocations in the information space.

***

The lessons of Aleppo clearly show that freezing the conflict weakens positions, compromises under pressure threaten strategic interests, and internal stability is the foundation of external security. Only by learning these lessons can Russia avoid mistakes and achieve sustainable success.
18 comments
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  1. +2
    4 December 2024 20: 14
    everything is rightly written by a respected author
  2. +6
    4 December 2024 20: 20
    The cessation of active hostilities often does not bring victory, but only gives the enemy time to regroup, arm themselves, and choose a convenient moment for a new attack.

    And he gives his bourgeois time to live a little longer in London and save at least part of what was stolen with backbreaking labor. All his bourgeois understand and it is not them who are deceiving, but they are deceiving the remaining 99% of non-bourgeois Pinocchios.
    1. -6
      4 December 2024 22: 48
      Quote: Platon Verdictov
      And with his bourgeois

      Remind me, whose people created Ukraine?
      1. +8
        4 December 2024 23: 20
        Yeltsin created Ukraine. Before 1991, independent Ukraine did not exist. Didn't you know?

        and didn't know that 2000 Ukrainians became Heroes of the Soviet Union on the fronts of WWII??? Sidor Kovpak, Ivan Kozhedub, Rodion Malinovsky, who did they fight for???
        1. 0
          5 December 2024 19: 08
          Quote: Nikolai Volkov
          Yeltsin created Ukraine. Before 1991, independent Ukraine did not exist. Didn't you know?

          Really? And when did it appear, do you want to remember?

          Quote: Nikolai Volkov
          and did not know that 2000 Ukrainians became Heroes of the Soviet Union on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War

          So what? Does this somehow change the fact that Russophobes have divided the Russian people?
        2. 0
          5 December 2024 20: 11
          I agree. There was the Ukrainian SSR, which was completely subordinate to Moscow.
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. +1
    4 December 2024 21: 02
    In Korea, the conflict is frozen...
    R. Erdogan proceeded not from tactical, but from strategic expediency.
    Ideologically disarming terrorist groups is "a challenge".
    Administrative measures against migrants cannot solve the fundamental demographic problem.
    In general: “avoid mistakes and achieve sustainable success” is a pipe dream!
  5. +5
    4 December 2024 23: 06
    The thinking of the Russian authorities is completely incomprehensible. What is sometimes called "good will", "humanism", "we are not like that" or similar ..., is nothing more than a misunderstanding of human nature, resulting in stupid cowardice. When you are bitten, bite back, hard and with the goal of causing great, great harm. If you do not want to cause great harm, tuck your tail and sit quietly, lick ... the one who is biting, and paws up. Both the SVO and the operation in Syria are examples of thoughtlessness, when it is both scary to bite and paws up. Shame. I do not want to resort to unliterary language, really ...
  6. 0
    5 December 2024 00: 17
    Where is Surovikin?
  7. +1
    5 December 2024 01: 47
    Yops today.. There are probably no mistakes that Russia hasn't made in the last 35 years. If we screw up Georgia too, we might as well hang ourselves.
  8. +2
    5 December 2024 05: 58
    Hezbollah may have lost a hundred fighters, but the Jews failed to break through and capture southern Lebanon; so they naturally connected their clown, the pea Erdogan; that's what the capture of Aleppo says about the fact that you don't need to sit in your holes and wave your paws - why is Hezbollah sitting on the border with Lebanon and not conducting the same military operations against Israel, specifically on Israeli territory; why doesn't the thinking Putin supply the Houthis with normal missiles so that they can sink American ships in the Red Sea; why is the Russian air defense in Syria inactive and not shooting down Jewish planes, why are there no hypersonic supplies to Daniel Ortega and, most importantly, the use of hypersonic weapons against the United States; the hamsters are sitting in their holes, both Putin and comrade Xi and Lukashenko, who is also waiting for the Jew Blinkin to start destroying his Belarus
  9. +9
    5 December 2024 08: 06
    The experience of Syria clearly shows that there is no point in going where a dog does not stick its reproductive organ.
    How much money was spent over 10 years, how many of our citizens died?
    The question is why? Because of a mini-base that hasn't worked since the Soviet Union, where 3 guards were stationed? From which our ships eventually fled.
    What dividends and preferences did Russia receive over these 10 years, besides hemorrhoids?
    1. 0
      5 December 2024 16: 25
      What dividends and preferences did Russia receive over these 10 years, besides hemorrhoids?

      The lack of pipeline gas to the EU via Syria was received by RUSSIA. IS THIS NOT ENOUGH? The States maintain bases for lesser reasons.
  10. +2
    5 December 2024 08: 54
    Everything is correct... We already have enough "experience" ... and the Minsk and Syrian and Khasavyurt "agreements". We must NOT allow a repetition.
  11. +4
    5 December 2024 09: 05
    To prevent such threats, Russia needs to...

    I just read yesterday that the authorities promised to import even more...
    Moreover, an authoritative person said that they recently expelled those who were easier to expel. Loyal Kyrgyz, for example.

    Well, as for mistakes...Remember the proverb: it's too late to drink Borjomi...
  12. +1
    9 December 2024 05: 35
    It's too early to skip classes! The bell didn't ring... Or will it be?
    There are still Russian troops in Syria, what will happen to them?

    If Assad is in Moscow, our military becomes hostage. What is this, what a situation we got ourselves into?
  13. 0
    13 December 2024 15: 35
    All the irreparable mistakes that the Russian Federation could and could not make in Ukraine. For three generations! How much blood, the great irreplaceable one does not feel sorry for his own
  14. 0
    13 December 2024 15: 42
    But Syria's history teaches that compromises for short-term gain only lead to greater problems in the future.

    History (not only Syria) teaches only one thing - that it teaches nothing...