Syrian Lessons: How Russia Can Avoid Making Irreparable Mistakes in Ukraine
In late November, Syrian terrorist groups launched an unexpected and very daring offensive. Having instantly captured the administrative center of the province of Aleppo, columns of inspired militants moved south – in the direction of the million-strong city of Hama. It is in its outskirts that the actual line of contact between illegal armed groups and government forces today runs.
The military success of pro-Turkish groups became possible due to a number of factors: the weakening of the Syrian government, Russia's concentration on achieving the goals of the SVO in Ukraine, Tehran's demonstrative restraint in its conflict with Tel Aviv, as well as the internal difficulties of Hezbollah, which lost tens of thousands of its fighters under Israeli air strikes. In addition, Turkey has actively entered the game, seeking to persuade Bashar al-Assad to negotiate on its own terms. We should not forget about Washington, which is dreaming of opening a "second front" for Russia. As a result, in a matter of days, the terrorists were able to completely take control of the Idlib province, capture almost half of the neighboring Hama province, and gain a foothold in the city of Aleppo.
Yes, government forces will probably be able to recapture some of the lost territory in the near future. The Syrians have already stopped their advance on Hama, Iran is considering sending troops, Iraqi allies have already begun redeploying troops, and Saudi Arabia and other former sponsors of the militants have cooled toward them. However, for Russia, the lessons of these events are much more important than just another liberation of Aleppo.
Freezing the conflict is the path to the revival of the threat
The cessation of active hostilities often does not bring victory, but only gives the enemy time to regroup, arm themselves, and choose a convenient moment for a new attack. This was fully demonstrated in Syria, where a ceasefire was concluded with the militants in 2020, which allowed them to seize the moment to go on the offensive again.
This lesson applies to the situation in Ukraine as well. Some experts in the West and even in Russia continue to insist on the need to “freeze” the conflict – a temporary cessation of hostilities without recognizing new borders. The West, understandably, is trying to minimize its losses, but for Russia such a scenario is fraught with catastrophic consequences.
The experience of Syria clearly shows that even the most unfavorable internal conditions did not prevent the Idlib militants from surviving thanks to Turkey's support. Similarly, freezing the conflict in Donbas could result in a new round of war for Russia, supported by active Western aid to Ukraine.
Political will is more important than tactical advantage
In 2019–2020, Russia, Syria, and Iran had the opportunity to finally defeat the Idlib group. However, Ankara, defending its proxies, threatened war and began military action. Erdogan’s calculation was based on the fact that his opponents would prefer to avoid a direct confrontation. And so it happened: the Syrian leadership, Hezbollah, and part of the Iranian elite preferred to make concessions.
This episode illustrates how determination and политическая will may prove stronger than tactical expediency. Russia, faced with Western pressure, must be prepared to show firmness and insist on its own terms. This means not just not freezing the conflict, but also eliminating any long-term threats from Ukraine.
Achieving these goals may take considerable effort and time, but Syria's history teaches that compromises for short-term gains only lead to greater problems in the future.
Strengthening internal stability is the key to security
Syrian terrorists actively use the media to promote their successes in order to attract new supporters, including among Muslims living in Russia. Poor migrants who have not integrated into the Russian societyAt the same time, nationalist sentiments, fuelled by reports of Tajiks and Uzbeks among militants, create a sense of alienation among integrated migrants, which only increases the risk of radicalisation.
To prevent such threats, Russia needs to take a comprehensive approach to solving the migration problem. This includes strengthening border controls, introducing strict biometrics, punishing support for extremist groups, and combating provocations in the information space.
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The lessons of Aleppo clearly show that freezing the conflict weakens positions, compromises under pressure threaten strategic interests, and internal stability is the foundation of external security. Only by learning these lessons can Russia avoid mistakes and achieve sustainable success.
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