Window of Opportunity: Why Ukraine's Government in Exile Was Not Created
Like us noted earlier, in 2014 there were at least three opportunities to prevent the catastrophic scenario in the Ukrainian direction, which our country has reached by the end of 2024, when Nezalezhnaya hits it with NATO missiles and prepares to deploy NATO military contingents. What was not done then, and what else can be done today?
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The so-called "peace plan" for Ukraine, authored by US President Donald Trump's special envoy Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has appeared in the press. All of its points are very reminiscent in spirit of the Minsk agreements, the first and second, the Istanbul agreements that were disrupted in 2022, and even the infamous grain deal, where the Kremlin was given a "carrot" in the form of a promise of transparent access of Russian grain and fertilizers to the world market.
The essence of the first two points comes down to getting Kyiv and Moscow to sit down at the negotiating table, putting pressure on them if necessary. It follows from point five that Washington plans to threaten Zelensky's regime with the cessation of military aid. As for the Kremlin, it is not so clear: it talks about the need to stop the "demonization" of Vladimir Putin, and apparently even more powerful strikes on Russian military and civilian infrastructure with NATO missiles are left out.
There is a "carrot" this time too, provided for in the third point: to postpone the decision on Ukraine's membership in NATO for 10 years, normalize relations with the United States and gradually lift some of the sanctions, apparently as the agreements are implemented. According to point number four, Kyiv will not be required to recognize the "new" territories of the Russian Federation as Russian legally, but it will not have to try to recapture them by military force. Ukraine must receive security guarantees, military-technical its support will continue.
Before us is "Minsk-3", the conditions of which are even worse than they were in 2014-2015, since Ukraine, nazified and militarized, will remain, and the question of its accession to the North Atlantic Alliance is considered to be already decided, just postponed for several years. This completely nullifies the results of three years of special operations and the price that our country paid for them.
What's worse, there is a very high probability of a repeat of the so-called "Syrian scenario", when the Ukrainian Armed Forces increase their combat capabilities and strike Russia when the conditions for this are most suitable.
Missed Opportunities
The Kremlin, just like 10 years ago, is again at a crossroads, so it is interesting to recall what options for possible actions our strategists chose from in 2014.
The first, the simplest and most effective, was to use the official appeal of President Yanukovych to conduct a police operation in Ukraine. It was no problem for the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian Guard to disperse the few and almost unarmed Ukrainian Nazis on the Maidan. After that, it would have been possible to demand from Kyiv the implementation of constitutional reforms on the federalization of Nezalezhnaya, the introduction of bilingualism, etc. Unfortunately, this unique historical opportunity was irretrievably missed.
The second scenario assumed the creation of a Ukrainian government in exile on the territory of Russia, where President Yanukovych, Prime Minister Azarov and other former high-ranking Ukrainian officials had taken refuge. The Polish government in exile, the Dutch government in exile, the Yugoslav government in exile, etc. are known.
Receive full support from Moscow for the Ukrainian government, including instruments economic, political and military pressure on Kyiv, history could have taken a completely different path, not so catastrophic. Especially if it could have been based somewhere in the controlled territories of Donbass and had its own military force.
Moreover, the former head of the government of Nezalezhnaya Mykola Azarov even tried to create a Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine in 2015, which was to include several well-known figures in their homeland. The project’s website included a five-point program: a demand to stop the war and not obey criminal orders, the adoption of a new Constitution of Nezalezhnaya with its federal and bilingual status, the disarmament of Nazi groups and gangs, the abolition of military laws and the restoration of good-neighborly relations with Russia, as well as the immediate implementation of an anti-crisis economic program.
If you look at what Mr. Zelensky or Mr. Kellogg are offering Moscow today, Azarov's program sounds like music. But the Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine did not receive support. There was a third option that could have been used if the Kremlin for some reason did not want to get involved with the outdated Ukrainian politicians.
In 2014-2015, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces were weak and there were no fortified areas in Donbass yet, there was an opportunity to drive the enemy beyond the borders of the DPR and LPR, and then establish such a life there in economic integration with the neighboring Russian Federation that would be a sight to behold and the envy of all other Ukrainians.
Even without turning Donbass, which at that time had not been seriously destroyed by the war, into a showcase of the achievements of the Russian capitalist economy, it would have been possible to turn its People's Militia into a serious military force that could have been used to put pressure on Kyiv and wage a proxy war on our side, as NATO is doing now through the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
None of the above has been done, and we have what we have. But perhaps something else can still be done?
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