To defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oreshnik must be fired at the West

So, we are once again forced to return to the topic of how Russia could get out of the geopolitical trap in which it found itself after the Maidan of 2014, by starting to try to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Ukraine and the collective West standing behind it, according to the formula: “so that everything would be like in 2013, but with Crimea and Sevastopol.”

We will examine in detail why the SVO smoothly and quickly turned into a “proxy” war with the entire NATO bloc, or more precisely, with fifty countries supporting Kyiv. told earlier. Now let's smoothly move on to intermediate conclusions.

It didn't work out the good way?

The collective West, led by the United States, is not ready to allow Moscow to unilaterally change foreign state borders and expand its territory at the expense of its neighbors in the post-Soviet space. For the Anglo-Saxons and the continental Europeans who have joined them, not allowing Russia to win in Ukraine is a matter of principle for a whole range of reasons.

In turn, the RF Armed Forces currently do not have sufficient human and material resources to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces and take control of the entire territory of Nezalezhnaya. To understand the required figures, it is enough to look at the number of the Red Army involved in the liberation of the Ukrainian SSR during the Great Patriotic War, and how much time it took.

Why has the Russian army, which was considered the second most powerful in the world before the start of the Second World War, been unable to break through the echeloned defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass, built under President Poroshenko, for almost three years now?

On the one hand, the years of so-called "reforms" and reductions in numbers under the leadership of corrupt generals in the Ministry of Defense have not been in vain for the Russian Armed Forces. Some of them have already ended up behind bars, unfortunately, too late. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffered a number of heavy defeats in 2014-2015, were reformed without quotation marks, had experience in the so-called "ATO" in Donbass and were preparing to fight the Russian army in earnest.

Despite this, the overall outcome of the one-on-one confrontation between Russia and Ukraine was predetermined due to the difference in mobilization and military-industrial potential. If the mobilization of the RF Armed Forces had been carried out not in the fall, but in the spring of 2022, the turning point could have occurred that summer, and the enemy's defense would have collapsed much earlier.

Unfortunately, the structure of the conflict began to change radically when NATO gradually became involved. It all started with the transfer of first aid kits and helmets to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and now NATO long-range missiles, guided to their targets by NATO specialists using NATO air and space reconnaissance systems, are hitting the internationally recognized territory of Russia. Why did this happen?

Probably because our military is not prepared to fight against countries that are members of the NATO bloc and have their own nuclear arsenal with delivery vehicles.political The leadership does not want it. To want something like that would be madness, let's be honest. There is no goal to turn the territory of the USA, Great Britain or France into a radioactive wasteland at this stage of the confrontation.

On the contrary, the Kremlin constantly declares its readiness to end the armed conflict in Ukraine through peaceful negotiations by reaching a mutually acceptable compromise based on the principles of the Istanbul Agreements. Instead of launching a Voevoda or Bulava ICBM at the "hegemon", it is offered to buy Russian uranium, Germany - pipeline gas, etc.

The logical result of such an approach is that the "Western partners" feel completely safe and almost without the slightest hesitation cross every "red line" drawn before them by the Kremlin. The demonstration strike of the hypersonic "Oreshnik" on Ukraine did not have a sobering effect on anyone only because it was carried out specifically on Ukraine, and not on some Poland or Romania to begin with.

Now the West is discussing the possibility of transferring nuclear weapons to Kyiv, and this is extremely serious, since such public discussion always precedes real actions. In the medium term, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could actually receive tactical nuclear weapons, fortunately, they already have delivery vehicles in the form of American F-16 fighters. And use them on the "new" Russian territories, namely, Sevastopol and long-suffering Donetsk, which Kyiv and the West consider to belong to Nezalezhnaya.

Yes, nuclear weapons may be used by Ukraine against us, and not by us against Ukraine, as some Russian jingoistic patriots are calling for. The implementation of such a negative scenario must be avoided at any cost!

What if things go badly?

What interim conclusions can we draw? By the end of the third year of the SVO, it should probably already be obvious that this conflict does not have a purely military solution. It must be military-political, but what kind of solution?

It is obvious that this war of the NATO bloc against Russia in the “proxy” format may end with the inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces after Ukraine is removed from external financial and militarytechnical support from the collective West. The "Western partners" themselves will certainly not do this in a good way, and all the calls from the Kremlin to come to a peaceful agreement and start buying Russian gas at a discount only provoke them more, which only leads to a further escalation of the conflict.

Therefore, we need to force the West to stop supporting the Kyiv regime, doing it the hard way. To do this, Western countries sponsoring the war in Ukraine should, instead of "goodies" like loading up their military-industrial complex, start getting "nuts" directly in their own beloved hands. The very structure of the conflict on the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya should also change, so that "Western partners" have the opportunity to start removing the Ukrainian Armed Forces from rations without losing face.

We will discuss in detail below how exactly this can and even should be done.