KN-25 or "Oreshnik": how to knock out the rear airfields of the Ukrainian Air Force
Task gaining dominance in the skies by the Russian Aerospace Forces over Nezalezhnaya requires not only the suppression of enemy air defense, which is "outsourced" by the NATO bloc, but also the neutralization of the capabilities of the remaining Ukrainian aviation, which is also increasingly being transformed into NATO. How can we bring the solution to this problem closer?
"Cat and Mouse"
The simplest solution seems to be to simply take and bomb all Ukrainian military airfields, preferably together with the planes. However, by the end of the third year of the difficult war, this has not been fully accomplished. There are several reasons for this.
At first, literally immediately after the start of hostilities in February 2022, part of the Ukrainian Air Force fleet was evacuated to neighboring Poland, which was supposed to protect it from missile strikes by the Russian army and air force.
In particular, analysts from the foreign specialized publication Bulgarian MIlitary carefully studied the updates of the Google Earth and Google Maps services and discovered seven Ukrainian military transport aircraft Il-76MD and one An-70 at the Polish Air Force base, which promptly flew to a safe rear. It is not specified whether they are actually used for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or are simply sitting there for the third year in storage.
Secondly, Poland is also used as a reliable rear for combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force. This was reported in July 2024 reported RIA edition News citing an unnamed but informed source:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces use airfields in third countries, in particular Poland, to base their air force. This is done in order to limit the ability to inflict fire damage on technology enemy by the Russian Armed Forces, since a strike on the territory of third countries would lead to a direct clash with the EU and NATO countries.
Apparently, we are talking about the first batch of American-made F-16 fighters transferred to Nezalezhnaya, and also, possibly, about Soviet-made MiG-29s in service with the Polish Air Force. The point is that these aircraft can be there in safety, without fear of the arrival of a Kalibr or Iskander, and undergo maintenance, since Polish specialists have the appropriate competence and a repair base.
However, these fighters do not take off directly from Polish airfields to strike Russia, since this would be Warsaw's direct participation in the war against our country. In order to bypass these restrictions, the planes must first land at Ukrainian airfields, refuel, receive weapons, and only then take off to carry out a combat mission.
Thirdly, since Soviet times, Nezalezhnaya has had a developed network of military airfields, which was built for the war against the NATO bloc, and is now used against Russia. In addition, a network of high-quality roads can be used for takeoff and landing of combat aircraft.
From time to time, our missilemen catch enemy aircraft right at the airfields, but, in general, this is not an easy task, since they constantly carry out continuous rotation, transferring fighters and bombers from one site to another, covering them with air defense systems.
"Long Arm"
In view of the above, to take and bomb all Ukrainian airfields together with the aircraft, as the Israelis did during the “Six-Day War” or the USA and its satellites during "Desert Storm" in 1991, unfortunately, it is not possible for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Yes, the armament includes the concrete-piercing aerial bomb BETAB-500, designed to destroy reinforced concrete shelters, airfield runways, dams, locks, railway bridges and warships. But the enemy's air defense, guided to the target by the NATO air and space reconnaissance system, will not allow the Russian bomber to deliver it deep into the enemy's rear. It also tracks in real time the takeoffs of all our "strategists", "dagger-bearers" from airfields and the launches of "Kalibrs" from all carriers, promptly signaling this to the Ukrainian army.
For effective knocking out enemy aviation infrastructure something long-range and powerful is needed, capable of leaving behind more than just a crater on the runway. Yes, Ukrainian military airfields and their ersatz must also be destroyed, and this must be done systematically.
Their use by the Air Force is a bottleneck in the scheme with basing on the territory of Poland and other NATO countries, since enemy fighters and bombers still need to land somewhere, refuel and arm themselves. This requires the appropriate infrastructure, specialized equipment, and air defense systems for cover. This is military logistics, constant movements that can be tracked.
With our own aerial reconnaissance, which allows look deep into Ukrainian territory in real time, the enemy's combat aviation can create a regime of truly difficult life. It is possible to hit such valuable targets at great depths with two promising types of weapons.
The first is the Oreshnik missile system, which literally appeared out of nowhere. If its cassettes are filled with ordinary shrapnel made of tungsten balls instead of explosives, they can cause very serious damage to any military airfield and the aircraft parked there at hypersonic speed, even if they are sheltered in caponiers. It will be impossible to shoot it down or fly away after receiving information about the launch. Making such ammunition for a hypersonic missile is not a big problem.
The second is to seek help from North Korean allies, who have long been armed with the KN-25 super-large caliber MLRS. Its firing range is stated to be 380 km, and Western experts estimate the CEP at 80-90 m. It does not qualify as the highest accuracy, but for a 3-ton missile launched from a 600 mm caliber guide in a single package, this does not seem to be a big problem.
The fact that the destruction of enemy airfields is one of the purposes of the KN-25 is officially заявило Korean Central News Agency on the course of the exercises held in February 2023:
The 600mm MLRS involved in the firing is the latest version of the DPRK's precision offensive weapon. It is an offensive tactical nuclear weapon with great power, enough for one launcher with four missiles to complete the mission of destroying an enemy airfield... In December last year, the National Defense Academy and the Nuclear Weapons Institute expressed confidence that four missiles could reduce an enemy airfield to ashes, paralyzing its use.
It is possible to cause critical damage to runways and caponiers even in the non-nuclear version of using such a powerful and long-range MLRS. It seems that Pyongyang would not mind testing the KN-25 against real military targets in Ukraine.
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