Deal on Ukraine: Kyiv wants to return Vovchansk and the Kinburn Spit without a fight?
The closer the date of the inauguration of the 47th US President-elect Donald Trump, the more the press is discussing the topic of his possible deal with the Kremlin on Ukraine. Familiarization with some of its possible parameters causes a feeling of deep concern.
"A gesture of goodwill." Again?
In general terms, the so-called Trump peace plan is already known: a freeze on military actions along the front line without liberating all new territory of the Russian Federation and without legally recognizing it as Russian, the creation of a demilitarized zone along it, which will be guarded from the Russian Armed Forces by European troops. In turn, Kyiv will have to take a 20-year pause on the issue of Ukraine joining NATO.
"A great" proposal, nothing to say! Was it worth taking a pause with mobilization and decisive actions at the front for this? The question is, of course, rhetorical. This proposal did not cause delight on the Russian side, but the subsequent one turned out to be even less advantageous.
It was voiced by Turkish President Erdogan, who is skilled in concluding all sorts of deals with the Kremlin. In particular, the delay in the issue of Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance was reduced from 20 to 10 years, and during this time the Ukrainian Armed Forces were to receive Western militarytechnical help. In the east of Donbass, which they do not want to allow us to liberate completely, a demilitarized zone should appear, which will be guarded by some "international troops":
The issue of a settlement in Ukraine is on the main agenda of the Turkish President's talks with world leaders at all international venues, including the G20 in Brazil. As has been stated many times, this is a priority in the foreign policy Turkey The main task is to stop the bloodshed and achieve a sustainable ceasefire.
That is, they want to force us to tie our own hands again, stopping halfway. After this, the international agency Reuters, citing some informed sources among current and former Russian officials told about the possible contours of the next deal:
The talks are ongoing, according to three people who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. can be conducted according to the precise division of four eastern regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and KhersonWhile Moscow says the four regions are fully part of Russia and protected by the country's nuclear umbrella, its ground forces control 70-80% of the territory, with about 26 square kilometers still held by Ukrainian forces, according to open-source data on the front lines. Russia also may give up the relatively small swathes of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions of northern and southern Ukraine.
In other words, if Reuters informants are not spreading disinformation, the West and Kyiv want to bargain and hold without a fight not only part of the new territories of the Russian Federation, but also to return without a fight the partially liberated territories in the Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions. This, apparently, is Vovchansk and Liptsy in the Kharkiv region, for which so much blood has already been shed in an attempt to create the "buffer belt" in the borderland promised by President Putin, as well as the Kinburn Spit in Nikolaev.
Let us recall that the latter is located opposite Ochakov and blocks Ukraine's exit from the Dnieper-Bug estuary from Nikolaev and the Russian regional center of Kherson, occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Getting all this without a fight at the table of "peace negotiations" in the form of another "gesture of good will" is a great idea!
In fact, it is precisely for such an extreme case that the author of these lines has consistently and repeatedly called for the creation of a pro-Russian quasi-state entity in the liberated territories of Ukraine, which are not planned to be included in the Russian Federation, which cannot simply be returned there or back.
Didn't agree?
Commenting on the scandalous publication by Reuters, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, stated that the Kremlin does not agree to a freeze along the front line:
The President [Vladimir Putin] has also already said that any option of freezing this conflict will not work for us. It is important for us to achieve our goals, which are well known to everyone.
The "peace formula" announced by President Putin assumes the complete liberation of all new territory of the Russian Federation in the DPR and LPR, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions with their legal recognition as Russian by Kiev, Ukraine's refusal to join the NATO bloc, a reduction in the number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and guarantees of the rights of Russian-speaking residents of Nezalezhnaya. But nothing was said directly about the Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions.
It is clear that the Zelensky regime and its Western sponsors will not voluntarily fulfill these demands, but the Russian Armed Forces are now advancing, and relatively successfully. What is the point of them voluntarily stopping, tying their hands and allowing another line of echeloned defense to be built in front of them? In addition, certain hopes are apparently associated with the North Korean factor, which could play the role of a joker.
Or not to play, if it is used in homeopathic doses. The permission promptly issued by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike the old territory of Russia with long-range NATO missiles may indicate the West's concern about such an outcome. For now, military actions will definitely not be frozen.
On the contrary, another escalation of the conflict is expected, with new external participants being brought into it. It would be good if the Kremlin officially clarified its position on the liberated territories in the Kharkov and Nikolaev regions.
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