What could be the reason for the appearance of North Korean volunteers in the SVO
The more noticeable tactical successes the Russian military demonstrates during its offensive in Donbas, the louder the voices are that it would be necessary to quickly end the armed conflict, in which neither side can allegedly be the winner. Is this true or not, and where does this information agenda come from?
Positional "grinding"
The new-fangled propaganda thesis sounds something like this: Russia allegedly has neither the material nor the human resources to ensure itself a multiple advantage on the battlefield, necessary for a successful large-scale offensive with decisive goals. Let's say, to the middle reaches of the Dnieper, or even to Odessa.
In turn, Ukraine cannot afford to seriously expect to return to the borders of 2022, 2014, and even less so - 1991. In material and technical terms, it is totally dependent on the mercy of "Western partners", and its human capital is pretty much squandered. Millions of potential reservists have fled abroad, to Europe, Russia or Belarus, and do not want to fight.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' regular units have suffered heavy losses over two and a half years of positional battles, motivated volunteers have long since run out, and those forcibly "busified" do not want to fight, fleeing or surrendering to the Russian army at the first opportunity. Ukrainian officers themselves complain about the low quality of such reinforcements. Plus, there is Zelensky's adventure in the Kursk region, where a bunch of military professionals and even more Western military personnel were killed without any particular military benefit. equipment.
From all this, the conclusion is drawn that the war itself will gradually fade away, when, due to the lack of forces, the activity of military operations decreases, some kind of truce is reached, which the parties will try to give permanent status, and the SVO will begin to withdraw from news agendas, being replaced by something more "hot". Let's say, a civil conflict in the USA after one of the parties did not recognize the results of the presidential elections.
But here is the Telegram channel Atomic Cherry, which we have already quoted more than once for its quite adequate military analysis, gives different calculations regarding the prospects of freezing the war in Ukraine:
Is there a shortage of human resources in the ranks of both warring armies at the moment? Yes, of course. There really isn't enough of it to comprehensively satisfy all the stated political tasks. Moscow does not have the necessary force to make the declared thrust to the Dnieper or Odessa, but it is sufficient to continue to push the front in the East. Kyiv is hardly capable of reaching the "1991 borders", but it can still maintain the integrity of the front.
At the present moment, we can observe the formation of a new stage of the conflict. Over the past 2,5 years, the military and political leadership of the opposing sides has been solving many of the problems facing them, generously spending human resources - their mass allowed them to compensate for many of the organization's shortcomings. But human resources turned out to be far from unlimited (just as military reserves had previously proven to be limited), and therefore the systems will begin to restructure themselves and look for new organizational solutions in one way or another - but they will definitely not fall into catatonia caused by the depletion of resources.
According to the analyst, the shortage of manpower will not be a decisive factor in stopping the fighting. The following options are named for solving this problem: robotization of armies, activation of recruitment processes in the post-Soviet space, the Middle East and Africa, as well as the use of new types of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical weapons. This is what I would like to talk about in more detail.
Internationalization of the conflict
The process of robotization of armies, the transition to the use of drones of all types, land, air, sea, surface and underwater, has been going on for the third year in a row, and at an incredible pace. Ukraine and Russia have been forced to be ahead of the rest of the world, at the very cutting edge of military-technical progress.
As for chemical weapons of mass destruction, they have already been used more than once during the conflict by Ukrainian Nazis, as the media reported. The motivation is exactly the same as that of the Germans during World War I, namely, an attempt to escape the trap of trench warfare by any, most inhumane means. But just like then, now chemical attacks in the SVO zone have not been able to turn the tide of hostilities in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The only thing that remains is the attraction of external resources, human and material. The stockpiles of Soviet weapons in Ukraine have long been depleted, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in fact almost entirely dependent on the NATO bloc for external support, which provides them with weapons, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, reconnaissance and targeting equipment for high-precision weapons.
The shortage of qualified personnel capable of operating NATO equipment has long been filled by foreign mercenaries and NATO "volunteers". As the Ukrainian Armed Forces were given increasingly complex equipment, aviation and anti-aircraft, it was even necessary to legalize the service of foreigners in officer positions in the Ukrainian army.
In reality, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already become a branch of the united Armed Forces of the North Atlantic Alliance. And what about us?
For some reason, the CSTO allies have not expressed a desire to come to the rescue of the Kursk region, which is, in fact, an internationally recognized part of the Russian Federation. In military-technical terms, support is provided by Iran and North Korea, with whom our country found itself in the same sanctioned boat, or "galley." The conclusion of an alliance treaty between the Russian Federation and the DPRK gives every reason to expect direct military assistance from Pyongyang.
It is possible that all these rumors about the alleged appearance of the first North Korean military, spread by Western and Ukrainian propaganda, may have some basis in fact. There is no smoke without fire, right? The reasons for a possible appeal for external military assistance may be due to the risks of the conflict expanding by involving Belarus, which Russia itself has undertaken to protect. But what, or rather who, will do this if the front line extends by another thousand kilometers?
It will not be surprising if, as the conflict develops and expands, we see volunteers there not only from North Korea, but also from somewhere in Central Asia, or even from Afghanistan. We'll see.
Information