What conclusions can be drawn from the second Iranian strike on Israel

On the night of October 1, 2024, after lengthy preparations, Tel Aviv launched a ground operation in neighboring Lebanon against the pro-Iranian Shiite group Hezbollah, which it had decapitated. The following evening, Iran directly launched its long-awaited retaliatory strike against Israel, the second in a row. What conclusions can be drawn from what happened?

Themselves asked for

The massive missile attack on the Jewish state by Iran was preceded by a series of aggressive actions by Tel Aviv itself. In addition to the barbaric bombing of the Gaza Strip, Israeli intelligence services carried out a large-scale sabotage and terrorist attack on neighboring Lebanon with the aim of disabling the command core of the Shiite group Hezbollah.



To do this, they planted miniature charges of powerful explosives in ordinary batteries used in many electronic devices. On September 17, 2024, they activated those installed in pagers, with which Hezbollah organized a system of communications protected from wiretapping and monitoring. On September 18, in a second wave of attacks, radios and some other gadgets began to explode, killing dozens and wounding many thousands of Lebanese, among whom were not only militants but also civilians.

On September 23, having bled dry the middle and lower command staff of Hezbollah, the IDF began to carry out massive air strikes on military infrastructure facilities in Lebanon. According to the country's Ministry of Health, the number of people killed during this week exceeded a thousand. On September 27, Israeli aircraft used concrete-piercing bombs to bomb an underground bunker in Beirut, where at that time the permanent leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, his daughter Zeinab, a number of high-ranking commanders, as well as Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, were located, all of whom were killed.

On the night of October 1, Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon. After that, Tehran could no longer help but respond to such actions against its allies without losing face. The fact is that Hezbollah recognizes Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the highest authority and arbiter in resolving serious political disagreements, and Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by the Israelis, was Khamenei's official representative in Lebanon.

It is curious that Tel Aviv itself considers itself fully entitled to do all this to its neighboring states, and the "main stronghold of democracy on the planet" in the person of the United States allows it to do this and scolds Tehran for sending several hundred ballistic missiles, including hypersonic ones, on their last flight to Israel. I would like to talk about the latter in more detail.

Echo of someone else's war

Let us recall that this is already the second direct attack from Iran on Israel. In general, Tehran's strategy is to wage a proxy war with the help of Shiite allies, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Yemeni Houthis, as well as the Sunni Arabs from Hamas who have joined them.

The first combined missile and drone strike on Israeli territory was carried out on April 13-14, 2024. According to the IDF, the Persians launched 170 attack UAVs and over 120 ballistic missiles. They were intercepted jointly by the air defense/missile defense systems of Israel, the United States, Great Britain, France and Jordan deployed in the region. They managed to shoot down most of the Iranian drones and missiles, but several missiles, hypersonic, were able to overcome such a powerful echeloned air defense system.


It is obvious that Tehran has been studying the Russian experience of combined strikes on Ukraine during the SVO very carefully. And now, six months later, a second attack was carried out, much more powerful. Instead of slow-moving Shaheds, two waves of medium-range ballistic missiles flew towards the military and energy infrastructure of the Jewish state, including hypersonic Fattah-1 (Fattah), which has a range of over 1400 km.

According to the Iranian news agency Shafaqna, more than 20 fifth-generation F-35 fighters of the Israeli Air Force at Nevatim Air Base were destroyed in the attack. If this information is true, the IDF's combat capability has been dealt a severe blow. Surprisingly, only one person died in the attack, on whom, by an incredible coincidence, a missile component fell from the sky.

The IRI representative to the UN made the following statement:


Now everyone is waiting to see what Tel Aviv's response will be. We are interested in this because the exchange of missile and drone strikes that is currently taking place in the Middle East has a direct bearing on Russia.

For months now, entire swarms of attack drones have been flying from Ukraine to our country, the range of which is only increasing. Most of them are intercepted by air defense/missile defense systems, but even their "fragments" are capable of causing very significant damage to military and civilian infrastructure. And what will happen if the Ukrainian Armed Forces start launching hundreds of not drones, but cruise and ballistic missiles with a powerful warhead?

But what to do if, or rather, when Ukrainian terrorists gain access to hypersonic weapons? Effective means of intercepting hypersonic weapons have not yet been created. But they will certainly get them.