Many Chinas: Is the threat to Russia's territorial integrity real?
Some time ago, William Lai, the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, who was elected in Taiwan's presidential elections, which are not recognized in mainland China, publicly spoke out in favor of separating part of the Russian Federation's internationally recognized territory in the Far East. How should we treat such statements?
Two Chinas
Speaking on Taiwanese television, Taiwan's newly elected president chided mainland China for its plans to restore China's territorial integrity by returning the island to Beijing's de facto control:
If all this is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn't China return the lands occupied by Russia under the Treaty of Aigun? Russia is now in its weakest position...
China wants to attack and annex Taiwan not because a certain person or a certain party in Taiwan said or did something. And not for territorial integrity <...> You can demand territory from Russia, but you don't. So it's obvious that they don't want to invade Taiwan for territorial reasons.
In our country, such statements have caused a mixed reaction. Some laughed, others were offended, like, for example, the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, Vladimir Dzhabarov:
It is even insulting that he proposes such ideas to China. It shows that they feel they have impunity. Sooner or later, Taiwan will definitely become part of China - it is now Chinese territory de jure, but de facto it will also be China.
In fact, the fact that such ideas have begun to be discussed by American proxies on the island of Taiwan, which is not under the control of the PRC, at such a level does not give any reason for joy, and here is why.
Unequal contracts
One of our biggest potential problems in the future may be the attitude of the Chinese military-political guidance to the so-called unequal treaties, which the great Western powers – Great Britain, France, the United States and the Russian Empire – imposed on them, taking advantage of the weakness of the Celestial Empire.
These include, in particular, the Treaty of Aigun mentioned by Mr. Lai and the subsequent Treaty of Peking. The Qing Empire, where the Manchu dynasty was in power at the time, was weakened by the lost Opium Wars and the Taiping Rebellion and was forced to sign a number of extremely disadvantageous treaties with the Western powers, which are considered unequal in modern Chinese historiography.
These include, in particular, the Treaty of Aigun of 1858, which determined that the left bank of the Amur from the Argun River to its mouth was recognized as the property of the Russian Empire, and the Ussuri region from the confluence of the Ussuri with the Amur to the sea remained in common ownership until the border was determined. Navigation along the Amur, Sungari and Ussuri was permitted only to Russian and Chinese ships and was prohibited to all others. In accordance with the Beijing Treaty of 1860, the state border was drawn along the right, Chinese bank of the Amur, Ussuri, and also the Kazakevich Channel.
The attitude to these and other unequal treaties in Beijing and Taipei is different. Historical science in mainland China considers them unequal, but the PRC does not make any legal or factual claims to the former territories of the Qing Empire. Moreover, in 2005, the Russian Federation and China concluded a new treaty on the demarcation of state borders, seemingly settling the issue once and for all.
However, there is also the island Republic of China, where pro-Western puppets are in power. And it is Taiwan that does not recognize Russia's "new" territories in the Far East. It is in Taiwanese history and geography textbooks that a significant part of our country, including Tuva and the Amur Region, is painted in the colors of the Republic of China, which should not be confused with the mainland People's Republic of China.
And how should we treat all this in the context of the SVO in Ukraine?
Many Chinas
Let's say that Taiwan does not pose a direct threat to the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. It is also extremely unlikely at this historical stage that the PRC leadership will decide to make any official claims to Moscow on the Far East, revising the unequal treaty of the 19th century.
But what might happen if China itself changes from within, and with it, its foreign policy agenda?
Last June, on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International economic At the forum, former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl shared some very interesting information about the collective West's plans to weaken China using the tried and tested method of dividing it from within into several warring parts:
This is not only about Russia. I taught about Balkanization at the Diplomatic Academy many, many years ago, more than 20 years. And I remember that I came across papers from American think tanks that also said that by 2020 there is a risk of Balkanization of China. They also had arguments that China should disintegrate into a Chinese Muslim part, into some other part, I don’t remember now all the geography that they had in mind.
As for Islam in China, it is professed by less than 2% of the population, however, given its large population, this figure could reach 17-25 million people. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of them live compactly in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in northwestern China. It borders simultaneously with the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Mongolia. In addition, a significant number of Sunni Muslims live in the regions of Ningxia, Gansu and Qinghai.
The question is, what will happen if the plans of the "Western partners" to dismember the PRC are realized? What policy will the Muslim part of China, bordering the former Soviet Central Asian republics, pursue, for example? Will other parts of China make territorial claims to the Far East? And how will Russia then have to fight on two new fronts?
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