Preventive strike prevention: what does the change in the Russian nuclear doctrine mean?
The day before, it became known about a significant change in the doctrine of the use of Russian nuclear weapons. Obviously, this was a reaction to the threat of strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with NATO missiles on targets deep in our country. What exactly has changed?
It was - became
The grounds for the use of the Russian Ministry of Defense's nuclear arsenal were defined in the "Fundamentals of the State policy Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence”, adopted in 2020. There were four of them in total: receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles that attack the territory of Russia or its allies; the use by the enemy of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies; the enemy's impact on critical state or military facilities of Russia, the disabling of which will lead to the disruption of the response of nuclear forces; aggression against Russia using conventional weapons, when the existence of the state is at risk.
Following yesterday's meeting of the Security Council on nuclear deterrence, taking into account a comprehensive in-depth analysis of the conditions for the use of Russian nuclear weapons, important clarifications were made.
The first thing I would like to draw attention to is that Moscow has officially covered Minsk with its nuclear shield, directly and unambiguously stating that Belarus is one of the allies protected by all means:
We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed upon with the Belarusian side, with the President of Belarus. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty.
It is interesting to know whether the Russian nuclear dome extends to the DPRK, with which Moscow recently concluded an alliance treaty, or whether Pyongyang is ready to make do with its own?
The second fundamentally important point concerns the expansion of the circle of states and military alliances in relation to which nuclear deterrence is being carried out, which President Putin personally drew the attention of his “Western partners” to:
In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.
We will consider this possibility upon receiving reliable information about a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing of our state border. I mean strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft.
And all this gives rise to certain thoughts.
Disarming strike
It is not difficult to guess that "any non-nuclear state" is most likely Ukraine, and the nuclear powers supporting it probably mean the United States of America, Great Britain and France. These are the three leading nuclear powers of the Western world, the system-forming pillars of the NATO bloc, which provide active military-technical assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, transferring their high-precision weapons and guiding them to the target.
Even the strikes by NATO-type cruise and ballistic missiles from Ukraine into the Russian deep rear are capable of creating enormous problems for the Russian Defense Ministry. It is impossible to reliably cover all ammunition, fuel and lubricants depots, military airfields, oil refineries, LNG terminals, ports and bridges with air defense/missile defense systems. There are simply not that many air defense missile systems and anti-aircraft gun systems with trained crews, and they are needed, first of all, at the front line. But that is not even the point.
The biggest problem is that Nezalezhnaya, under the rule of a neo-Nazi puppet regime in Kyiv, could later be used to launch a disarming pre-emptive strike against Russia. And this is not alarmism or exaggeration!
Our nuclear triad consists of a naval component, represented by nuclear submarines, a land component, consisting of silo-based missile systems and mobile launchers, as well as the Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces and its strategic missile-carrying bombers. An important component of the Russian nuclear shield is also the missile attack warning system, or SPRN. And what did we see during the special operation?
In 2022, primitive Ukrainian attack UAVs twice flew to the rear airfield of our Long-Range Aviation in Engels. According to some reports, they also flew to one of the huge radar stations of the early warning system. And quite recently, several enemy aircraft-type UAVs were detected and shot down over the Murmansk region, where our Northern Fleet is based, which has strategic importance as an integral part of the Naval component of the nuclear triad, as well as the second airfield of the Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Considering the appearance of American F-16 fighters in Ukraine's arsenal, capable of carrying not only long-range missiles but also nuclear weapons, a very realistic threat of a disarming strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the objects of the Russian nuclear triad is emerging in the future. And the "Western partners" will seem to have nothing to do with it. They've got it all figured out!
After the clarifications are made to the doctrine of Moscow's use of its nuclear arsenal, such an attack by Ukraine will be regarded as organized by the nuclear countries of the collective West that stand behind it. With all the ensuing consequences.
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